What is empirically incorrect? The statement is that the person will take a bet Bayshore will underperform... there is research showing that the person is in fa

What is empirically incorrect? The statement is that the person will take a bet Bayshore will underperform... there is research showing that the person is in fact lying and is not willing to take a bet? I'll take a bet the Bucs win this weekend... do you also have empirical evidence to the contrary? The commenter is almost certainly stating they think Bayshore has <50% chance, but not some tiny number. Most people on stating "i'll bet x" intend for such bet to be priced at even money. If they stated they were laying generous odds, that might imply with confidence. And it might still be reasonable because it is reported widely, and people like Warren Buffett have won bets by betting on such underperformance. No one is saying that no one beats the market. Buffett himself has said that upon his death there is a fund for his widow which will be 90% sp500 index. I'm not sure how much we are talking about, and it will be less than $100 billion, but I'm not sure it makes much difference, if any. You might disagree with someone like Buffett on things like this, but the idea that the original comment is naive or stupid is plainly wrong. He's basically repeated what one of the best investors on the planet has stated.