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> If you gave 10 monkeys darts that pick stocks, roughly 5 will beat the index Yes but you can't pick the winning monkeys in advance, can you? Picking winning

• reducesuffering 4y ago
  Nope, you can't pick the winning monkeys. Picking the avg. (index) is better; same avg. returns, less variance. But, it's still true that 50% outperform the index, not "very few" as many people like to think.
  • klipt 4y ago
    Well it's kind of tautological that if you can * Achieve the mean * Add some kind of noise to that You have a chance of beating the mean. But I think when people say "beat the market", they mean a better than 50% chance due to some secret sauce. Or, beat the market repeatedly, which variance is unlikely to do (if chance of beating the market one year is 50%, chance of beating it 10 years running is only ~0.1%)