3 ms·

> 30% - 40% of the population disabled? That assumes likelihood of getting long covid doesn't drop after successive infections.

ggm 4y ago
The nature paper says for a cohort, it may rise. And, it seems like related CF viruses (Epstein-barr) may reactivate. Having a lot of covid spike protein in your body is not good for you.
DoreenMichele 4y ago
I will note that around 15 to 20 percent of the population already identifies as disabled and up to 60 percent will admit to having limitations that would benefit from accommodation if you survey them without using stigmatizing language like "disabled." These stats were true prior to covid and the pandemic. People widely underestimate how common disability already is.
teaearlgraycold 4y ago
Or it could be some people will always get long covid and others will never.
Animats 4y ago
> That assumes likelihood of getting long COVID doesn't drop after successive infections. It's not looking good. December 2022 study [1][2]: "The risk of hospitalization, organ damage, and death rises markedly with repeat COVID-19 infection. Assistant professor of medicine Amy Barczak shared a Nature study that used data from the Veteran’s Administration to assess the cumulative risk of post-infection effects in people with one, two, and three or more SARS-CoV-2 infections, as compared to noninfected controls. The data show a consistent pattern of increased likelihood of hospitalization, cardiovascular effects, clotting and other blood disorders, diabetes, fatigue, gastrointestinal distress, kidney damage, mental health effects such as depression, musculoskeletal damage, neurological deficits, and pulmonary damage with each episode. Prior infection does not change the course of disease in subsequent infections, just the risk of severe complications." [1] https://www.harvardmagazine.com/2022/12/covid-reinfection https://www.harvardmagazine.com/2022/12/covid-reinfection [2] https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-022-02051-3 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-022-02051-3
- incrudible 4y ago
  People always cite the Veterans affair study to support the claim that reinfections are more severe, without citing this paragraph that makes it clear that this study can not support that claim: Our analyses should not be interpreted as an assessment of severity of a second infection versus that of a first infection, nor should they be interpreted as an examination of the risks of adverse health outcomes after a second infection compared to risks incurred after a first infection. I am not aware of any study that supports the claim that reinfections are worse.
  - seydor 4y ago
    does it really matter, if even a mild reinfection increases your risk of so many diseases and death?
    - incrudible 4y ago
      It does matter whether the science is misprepresented, causing irrational anxiety in people, which also increases your risk of "so many diseases and death". Respiratory infections generally increase your risk for various pathologies, but so does staying indoors in fear, not getting exercise and avoiding social contact.
      - cf141q5325 4y ago
        Considering the impact on peoples emotions and behavior when communicating data (instead of just warning them of these possible pitfalls) is an extremely slippery slope that quickly leads to an impairment of the sensemaking process. Be it due to self censorship as well or a loss of trust when people recognize they are getting managed. In the end its not anyone call to determine what information and expected reactions would be better for other adults. I find it a lot more fruitful to elaborate why the data doesnt support those conclusions. This way we dont risk slipping down this slope and instead actually help each other fix our errors.
seydor 4y ago
Some studies that infection actually may make it easier to catch it again https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abq1841 https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abq1841 and that covid causes immunological dysfuction even 8 months later https://www.nature.com/articles/s41590-021-01113-x https://www.nature.com/articles/s41590-021-01113-x
- cf141q5325 4y ago
  Thanks for the links. The science study seems to be looking at the tipple vaccinated. There seems to be some indication, that this might influence the risk of reinfection as well. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.12.17.22283625v1.full https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.12.17.22283625v... See Figure 2 (end of the paper). Preprint, but pretty straightforward census of hospital staff.
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]

ggm 4y ago

The nature paper says for a cohort, it may rise. And, it seems like related CF viruses (Epstein-barr) may reactivate. Having a lot of covid spike protein in your body is not good for you.

DoreenMichele 4y ago

I will note that around 15 to 20 percent of the population already identifies as disabled and up to 60 percent will admit to having limitations that would benefit from accommodation if you survey them without using stigmatizing language like "disabled." These stats were true prior to covid and the pandemic. People widely underestimate how common disability already is.

teaearlgraycold 4y ago

Or it could be some people will always get long covid and others will never.

Animats 4y ago

> That assumes likelihood of getting long COVID doesn't drop after successive infections. It's not looking good. December 2022 study [1][2]: "The risk of hospitalization, organ damage, and death rises markedly with repeat COVID-19 infection. Assistant professor of medicine Amy Barczak shared a Nature study that used data from the Veteran’s Administration to assess the cumulative risk of post-infection effects in people with one, two, and three or more SARS-CoV-2 infections, as compared to noninfected controls. The data show a consistent pattern of increased likelihood of hospitalization, cardiovascular effects, clotting and other blood disorders, diabetes, fatigue, gastrointestinal distress, kidney damage, mental health effects such as depression, musculoskeletal damage, neurological deficits, and pulmonary damage with each episode. Prior infection does not change the course of disease in subsequent infections, just the risk of severe complications." [1] https://www.harvardmagazine.com/2022/12/covid-reinfection https://www.harvardmagazine.com/2022/12/covid-reinfection [2] https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-022-02051-3 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-022-02051-3

incrudible 4y ago
People always cite the Veterans affair study to support the claim that reinfections are more severe, without citing this paragraph that makes it clear that this study can not support that claim: Our analyses should not be interpreted as an assessment of severity of a second infection versus that of a first infection, nor should they be interpreted as an examination of the risks of adverse health outcomes after a second infection compared to risks incurred after a first infection. I am not aware of any study that supports the claim that reinfections are worse.
- seydor 4y ago
  does it really matter, if even a mild reinfection increases your risk of so many diseases and death?
  - incrudible 4y ago
    It does matter whether the science is misprepresented, causing irrational anxiety in people, which also increases your risk of "so many diseases and death". Respiratory infections generally increase your risk for various pathologies, but so does staying indoors in fear, not getting exercise and avoiding social contact.
    - cf141q5325 4y ago
      Considering the impact on peoples emotions and behavior when communicating data (instead of just warning them of these possible pitfalls) is an extremely slippery slope that quickly leads to an impairment of the sensemaking process. Be it due to self censorship as well or a loss of trust when people recognize they are getting managed. In the end its not anyone call to determine what information and expected reactions would be better for other adults. I find it a lot more fruitful to elaborate why the data doesnt support those conclusions. This way we dont risk slipping down this slope and instead actually help each other fix our errors.

seydor 4y ago

Some studies that infection actually may make it easier to catch it again https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abq1841 https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abq1841 and that covid causes immunological dysfuction even 8 months later https://www.nature.com/articles/s41590-021-01113-x https://www.nature.com/articles/s41590-021-01113-x

cf141q5325 4y ago
Thanks for the links. The science study seems to be looking at the tipple vaccinated. There seems to be some indication, that this might influence the risk of reinfection as well. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.12.17.22283625v1.full https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.12.17.22283625v... See Figure 2 (end of the paper). Preprint, but pretty straightforward census of hospital staff.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]