I think you're right at least in the near term but I wouldn't be surprised to see a low-friction browser based music production tool start to rapidly build a fo

I think you're right at least in the near term but I wouldn't be surprised to see a low-friction browser based music production tool start to rapidly build a following the way that Rebirth or Fruity Loops did in their day. Especially for electronic music the performance requirements are not that strict and easy entry and collaboration could be enough to attract a large userbase.