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I did study meteorology (but not climatology). I do understand the proposed mechanism but I do not trust the models, mostly because I know the limitations of we
by the_third_wave 4y ago
I did study meteorology (but not climatology). I do understand the proposed mechanism but I do not trust the models, mostly because I know the limitations of weather and climate models and recognise the magnitude of 'fudge factors' in play when these models are proposed. In many ways they resemble the old joke about the theoretical physicist who was charged with figuring out how to increase the milk production of cows. Although many farmers, biologists, and psychologists had tried and failed to solve the problem before him, the physicist had no trouble coming up with a solution on the spot. “First,” he began, “we assume a spherical cow ... ”.
You mention the clear incentives the fossil fuel industries have in toning down the environmental impact - I explicitly use that term instead of 'climate impact' which has replaced it in popular media since I consider the former to be a known and proven problem - their products have. This is certainly the case and stands without doubt. You do not mention the clear incentives the 'green' industry has in pushing climate panic. Don't you think this is a factor or do you simply agree with their messaging? Does it bother you that several fossil fuel giants have jumped on the 'green' bandwagon so they get to play both sides in this game of charade?
> There's no doubt a scientific consensus that human carbon emissions are causing global warming.
Sure, when you increase the emission of greenhouse gases there is some impact. How large this impact is is less clear, nor is it clear that the increased CO₂ concentration in the atmosphere is the main cause of the recent warm spell or whether it is caused by it. Historical climate records show CO₂ concentration trailing temperature changes, not leading them, the theory being that change in concentration is caused by the change in seawater temperature with colder water absorbing CO₂ (and other gases) which is released when the water warms up again. Another factor in play is the concentration of water vapour in the atmosphere - it shares 3 of the 4 main absorption areas in the spectrum with CO₂ - as is cloud cover (which has a significant effect on the planet's albedo (reflection coefficient)). Since temperature, CO₂ concentration, water vapour concentration and cloud cover are related and interdependent a change in one causes a change in the others. These relationships have not been not taken into account in most models until recently [1] while they are sure to play a role. There are many other factors which are either not taken into account or set at assumed values.
[1] this is one of the areas in which climate models have been improved in the last years: 'Cloud feedbacks have been confirmed as a primary source of these differences, with low clouds making the largest contribution. New observational and modelling evidence strongly supports a combined water vapour-lapse rate feedback of a strength comparable to that found in General Circulation Models (approximately 1 W m–2 °C–1, corresponding to around a 50% amplification of global mean warming). The magnitude of cryospheric feedbacks remains uncertain, contributing to the range of model climate responses at mid- to high latitudes.'(https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/ar4-wg1-chapter8-1.pdf:3 https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/ar4-wg1-chap...)