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Doesn't explain why birth rates are falling in countries with largely rural populations as well. India's fertility rate is now below replacement level. 65% of

by spaceman_2020 4y ago

Doesn't explain why birth rates are falling in countries with largely rural populations as well. India's fertility rate is now below replacement level. 65% of the country's population still lives in rural areas.

triceratops 4y ago
What's the distribution of fertility rates between rural and urban areas? Could consolidation and mechanization have reduced the need for labor on farms? (I don't know how advanced farming in India is, but that's been the pattern in developed countries) Or changing laws or opinions on using child labor on farms?
- spaceman_2020 4y ago
  I'll have to find the first data point, but the percentage of people employed in agriculture has actually increased over the last few years [0]. 0: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/indicators/share-of-agriculture-sector-in-employment-sees-steady-increase-cmie/articleshow/85266073.cms https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/indicators...
dragonwriter 4y ago
> Doesn’t explain why birth rates are falling in countries with largely rural populations as well. Countries that still have “largely rural” populations are generally also urbanizing, in many cases more rapidly than those that no longer have largely rural populations. In any case, “urbanization” is, to the extent that it is part of the explanation, sill only part of the explanation, there are a lot of other factors (social safety nets being a big one, along with evolution in social expectations of minimum levels of necessary support for children, etc.) While these things may all very loosely correlate with each other, they don’t move in lockstep.
- spaceman_2020 4y ago
  I think the reason is that children are a long-term project - 18-20 years at least. You might be living on a farm right now, but if you had an inkling that you will eventually move out to the city, you probably don't want to take on an expensive project - like having kids. Back in 1850s, if you were a farmer, you likely thought that you'll die a farmer. But today, if you're on a farm, you still get to see what's happening in the cities, often in real-time. And maybe you think that you'll eventually move there too, and skip having kids.

triceratops 4y ago

What's the distribution of fertility rates between rural and urban areas? Could consolidation and mechanization have reduced the need for labor on farms? (I don't know how advanced farming in India is, but that's been the pattern in developed countries) Or changing laws or opinions on using child labor on farms?

spaceman_2020 4y ago
I'll have to find the first data point, but the percentage of people employed in agriculture has actually increased over the last few years [0]. 0: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/indicators/share-of-agriculture-sector-in-employment-sees-steady-increase-cmie/articleshow/85266073.cms https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/indicators...

dragonwriter 4y ago

> Doesn’t explain why birth rates are falling in countries with largely rural populations as well. Countries that still have “largely rural” populations are generally also urbanizing, in many cases more rapidly than those that no longer have largely rural populations. In any case, “urbanization” is, to the extent that it is part of the explanation, sill only part of the explanation, there are a lot of other factors (social safety nets being a big one, along with evolution in social expectations of minimum levels of necessary support for children, etc.) While these things may all very loosely correlate with each other, they don’t move in lockstep.

spaceman_2020 4y ago
I think the reason is that children are a long-term project - 18-20 years at least. You might be living on a farm right now, but if you had an inkling that you will eventually move out to the city, you probably don't want to take on an expensive project - like having kids. Back in 1850s, if you were a farmer, you likely thought that you'll die a farmer. But today, if you're on a farm, you still get to see what's happening in the cities, often in real-time. And maybe you think that you'll eventually move there too, and skip having kids.