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The quantity of "he's guilty" comments and tweets are a result of how famously and enormously FTX flamed out and how comically guilty he looks. It's not some un

by smcl 4y ago

The quantity of "he's guilty" comments and tweets are a result of how famously and enormously FTX flamed out and how comically guilty he looks. It's not some unnamed entity (CZ? Binance? The US government?) organising some PR campaign against him. Re your tweet - are you one of those people who believe a covid vaccine caused that player to collapse? You realise athletes have seemingly randomly or spontaneously collapsed many times before Covid 19 was even discovered - often when they weren't even hit, as Hamlin was.

breck 4y ago
> Re your tweet - are you one of those people who believe a covid vaccine caused that player to collapse? No. That would be stupid. I believe there's a chance that it did. At first, 1%. Now, given that they haven't released his vaccine status yet, and as my Tweet shows have paid for an expensive PR campaign to slander anyone who questions whether there has been a cause (a campaign that has clearly had an effect on you), I have updated my probabilities to believe with 20% certainty the vaccine caused his heart attack. What odds do you give it?
- smcl 4y ago
  Nahh man, I reckon if you're shoe-horning vaccine stuff into an FTX story you're a bit more antivax than you're letting on, and it sounds like you're out to get more people on your side. The guy took a significant blow to the chest just before it happened, the odds that a vaccine was responsible are about the same as it being caused by what he ate for breakfast, the flavour of gatorade he was drinking or the way he laced his boots up.
  - breck 4y ago
    I have 1,200 Facebook friends. Not a single one died of Covid. The one who suffered the most, was a 38 year old mother of 2 in top shape who did not get Covid, but had a sudden heart attack shortly after getting the vaccine. She barely survived and has had a long road back in rehab. She is from a prominent family and they were very pro-vax. I think the odds of the NFL player's heart attack being vaccine induced are a lot higher than you think (You did not provide a number, but by your description I guess you guess is <0.001% odds?). That being said, I am 80% confident it was not caused by vaccine. Why not just release his vaccinated status?
    - smcl 4y ago
      The guy is young and a professional athlete, so assume he was vaccinated. I've also known someone to have heart attack before covid vaccinations were a thing, young person too. Doesn't mean anything. The only reason this is even being discussed is because a bunch of people have leapt on every single high-profile death or health incident and raised hell trying to tie it to Covid vaccinations and doing the "just asking questions" thing to try to make people doubt themselves. Apparently this has worked on you.
      - breck 4y ago
        Again you are not considering other alternatives or providing numeric estimates for your positions. You might learn something about how to think from this site: https://www.rootclaim.com/ https://www.rootclaim.com/
        smcl 4y ago
        My dude, if you think I'm signing up for the thing which made you estimate the probability of something you know nothing about (while also warming up to antivax conspiracy theories) you have seriously misunderstood this exchange.

by smcl 4y ago

breck 4y ago

> Re your tweet - are you one of those people who believe a covid vaccine caused that player to collapse? No. That would be stupid. I believe there's a chance that it did. At first, 1%. Now, given that they haven't released his vaccine status yet, and as my Tweet shows have paid for an expensive PR campaign to slander anyone who questions whether there has been a cause (a campaign that has clearly had an effect on you), I have updated my probabilities to believe with 20% certainty the vaccine caused his heart attack. What odds do you give it?

smcl 4y ago
Nahh man, I reckon if you're shoe-horning vaccine stuff into an FTX story you're a bit more antivax than you're letting on, and it sounds like you're out to get more people on your side. The guy took a significant blow to the chest just before it happened, the odds that a vaccine was responsible are about the same as it being caused by what he ate for breakfast, the flavour of gatorade he was drinking or the way he laced his boots up.
- breck 4y ago
  I have 1,200 Facebook friends. Not a single one died of Covid. The one who suffered the most, was a 38 year old mother of 2 in top shape who did not get Covid, but had a sudden heart attack shortly after getting the vaccine. She barely survived and has had a long road back in rehab. She is from a prominent family and they were very pro-vax. I think the odds of the NFL player's heart attack being vaccine induced are a lot higher than you think (You did not provide a number, but by your description I guess you guess is <0.001% odds?). That being said, I am 80% confident it was not caused by vaccine. Why not just release his vaccinated status?
  - smcl 4y ago
    The guy is young and a professional athlete, so assume he was vaccinated. I've also known someone to have heart attack before covid vaccinations were a thing, young person too. Doesn't mean anything. The only reason this is even being discussed is because a bunch of people have leapt on every single high-profile death or health incident and raised hell trying to tie it to Covid vaccinations and doing the "just asking questions" thing to try to make people doubt themselves. Apparently this has worked on you.
    - breck 4y ago
      Again you are not considering other alternatives or providing numeric estimates for your positions. You might learn something about how to think from this site: https://www.rootclaim.com/ https://www.rootclaim.com/
      - smcl 4y ago
        My dude, if you think I'm signing up for the thing which made you estimate the probability of something you know nothing about (while also warming up to antivax conspiracy theories) you have seriously misunderstood this exchange.