4 ms·

I think I had as much as $30,000 in my new FTX.us account (I was loyal to Coinbase, but inept officials in Hawai'i banned crypto and I was kicked off Coinbase a

by breck 4y ago

I think I had as much as $30,000 in my new FTX.us account (I was loyal to Coinbase, but inept officials in Hawai'i banned crypto and I was kicked off Coinbase and needed another exchange). So I should be angry. But I'm not. At least not yet. Something seems phishy to me. I think SBF might be telling the truth. Or he could be lying. I don't know. I'm 50/50 on this one though. FTX.us was a good product. It was snappy and it worked. Until the lawyers took over. SBF says it was fully solvent and I have not seen any proof that it wasn't. The sheer quantity of "he's guilty" comments on all of social media reads like a well organized PR hit job (similar to this: https://twitter.com/breckyunits/status/1613178467818024962/photo/1 https://twitter.com/breckyunits/status/1613178467818024962/p...). The one lesson I think everyone can take away from this is: as much as you can, #buildInPublic.

kuhewa 4y ago
You haven't reached the anger Kübler-Ross grief stage yet
smcl 4y ago
The quantity of "he's guilty" comments and tweets are a result of how famously and enormously FTX flamed out and how comically guilty he looks. It's not some unnamed entity (CZ? Binance? The US government?) organising some PR campaign against him. Re your tweet - are you one of those people who believe a covid vaccine caused that player to collapse? You realise athletes have seemingly randomly or spontaneously collapsed many times before Covid 19 was even discovered - often when they weren't even hit, as Hamlin was.
- breck 4y ago
  > Re your tweet - are you one of those people who believe a covid vaccine caused that player to collapse? No. That would be stupid. I believe there's a chance that it did. At first, 1%. Now, given that they haven't released his vaccine status yet, and as my Tweet shows have paid for an expensive PR campaign to slander anyone who questions whether there has been a cause (a campaign that has clearly had an effect on you), I have updated my probabilities to believe with 20% certainty the vaccine caused his heart attack. What odds do you give it?
  - smcl 4y ago
    Nahh man, I reckon if you're shoe-horning vaccine stuff into an FTX story you're a bit more antivax than you're letting on, and it sounds like you're out to get more people on your side. The guy took a significant blow to the chest just before it happened, the odds that a vaccine was responsible are about the same as it being caused by what he ate for breakfast, the flavour of gatorade he was drinking or the way he laced his boots up.
    - breck 4y ago
      I have 1,200 Facebook friends. Not a single one died of Covid. The one who suffered the most, was a 38 year old mother of 2 in top shape who did not get Covid, but had a sudden heart attack shortly after getting the vaccine. She barely survived and has had a long road back in rehab. She is from a prominent family and they were very pro-vax. I think the odds of the NFL player's heart attack being vaccine induced are a lot higher than you think (You did not provide a number, but by your description I guess you guess is <0.001% odds?). That being said, I am 80% confident it was not caused by vaccine. Why not just release his vaccinated status?
      - smcl 4y ago
        The guy is young and a professional athlete, so assume he was vaccinated. I've also known someone to have heart attack before covid vaccinations were a thing, young person too. Doesn't mean anything. The only reason this is even being discussed is because a bunch of people have leapt on every single high-profile death or health incident and raised hell trying to tie it to Covid vaccinations and doing the "just asking questions" thing to try to make people doubt themselves. Apparently this has worked on you.
        breck 4y ago
        Again you are not considering other alternatives or providing numeric estimates for your positions. You might learn something about how to think from this site: https://www.rootclaim.com/ https://www.rootclaim.com/
notch656c 4y ago
I think you're right that FTX US was likely solvent. But had SBF not been forced to file bankruptcy you can bet he would have gambled all of FTX US to try and bail out FTX Int'l to avoid 100+ years in jail. I think he was just saving that bet for last as it was the most dangerous one.
- SilasX 4y ago
  I honestly don't know what to think, on the FTX US issue. Another US-regulated subsidiary of FTX, LedgerX[1], remained solvent and had not let SBF gamble customer assets, and was (somewhat famously) left out of the bankruptcy[2]. And I'm constantly hearing that US regulations are effective at preventing blatant financial fraud, so why would they protect one US-regulated subsidiary but not another? [1] Though it was created independently of SBF/FTX and only purchased by them. (Note: not to be confused with Ledger hardware wallets.) [2] https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2022/11/sam-bankman-frieds-32-billion-ftx-crypto-empire-files-for-bankruptcy/ https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2022/11/sam-bankman-frie...

by breck 4y ago

kuhewa 4y ago

You haven't reached the anger Kübler-Ross grief stage yet

smcl 4y ago

The quantity of "he's guilty" comments and tweets are a result of how famously and enormously FTX flamed out and how comically guilty he looks. It's not some unnamed entity (CZ? Binance? The US government?) organising some PR campaign against him. Re your tweet - are you one of those people who believe a covid vaccine caused that player to collapse? You realise athletes have seemingly randomly or spontaneously collapsed many times before Covid 19 was even discovered - often when they weren't even hit, as Hamlin was.

breck 4y ago
> Re your tweet - are you one of those people who believe a covid vaccine caused that player to collapse? No. That would be stupid. I believe there's a chance that it did. At first, 1%. Now, given that they haven't released his vaccine status yet, and as my Tweet shows have paid for an expensive PR campaign to slander anyone who questions whether there has been a cause (a campaign that has clearly had an effect on you), I have updated my probabilities to believe with 20% certainty the vaccine caused his heart attack. What odds do you give it?
- smcl 4y ago
  Nahh man, I reckon if you're shoe-horning vaccine stuff into an FTX story you're a bit more antivax than you're letting on, and it sounds like you're out to get more people on your side. The guy took a significant blow to the chest just before it happened, the odds that a vaccine was responsible are about the same as it being caused by what he ate for breakfast, the flavour of gatorade he was drinking or the way he laced his boots up.
  - breck 4y ago
    I have 1,200 Facebook friends. Not a single one died of Covid. The one who suffered the most, was a 38 year old mother of 2 in top shape who did not get Covid, but had a sudden heart attack shortly after getting the vaccine. She barely survived and has had a long road back in rehab. She is from a prominent family and they were very pro-vax. I think the odds of the NFL player's heart attack being vaccine induced are a lot higher than you think (You did not provide a number, but by your description I guess you guess is <0.001% odds?). That being said, I am 80% confident it was not caused by vaccine. Why not just release his vaccinated status?
    - smcl 4y ago
      The guy is young and a professional athlete, so assume he was vaccinated. I've also known someone to have heart attack before covid vaccinations were a thing, young person too. Doesn't mean anything. The only reason this is even being discussed is because a bunch of people have leapt on every single high-profile death or health incident and raised hell trying to tie it to Covid vaccinations and doing the "just asking questions" thing to try to make people doubt themselves. Apparently this has worked on you.
      - breck 4y ago
        Again you are not considering other alternatives or providing numeric estimates for your positions. You might learn something about how to think from this site: https://www.rootclaim.com/ https://www.rootclaim.com/

notch656c 4y ago

I think you're right that FTX US was likely solvent. But had SBF not been forced to file bankruptcy you can bet he would have gambled all of FTX US to try and bail out FTX Int'l to avoid 100+ years in jail. I think he was just saving that bet for last as it was the most dangerous one.

SilasX 4y ago
I honestly don't know what to think, on the FTX US issue. Another US-regulated subsidiary of FTX, LedgerX[1], remained solvent and had not let SBF gamble customer assets, and was (somewhat famously) left out of the bankruptcy[2]. And I'm constantly hearing that US regulations are effective at preventing blatant financial fraud, so why would they protect one US-regulated subsidiary but not another? [1] Though it was created independently of SBF/FTX and only purchased by them. (Note: not to be confused with Ledger hardware wallets.) [2] https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2022/11/sam-bankman-frieds-32-billion-ftx-crypto-empire-files-for-bankruptcy/ https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2022/11/sam-bankman-frie...