4 ms·

Wonder what the practical implications of a million tonnes is? For industry, is a million tonnes really that much?

by bradhe 4y ago

detrites 4y ago
That's what I was going to ask: can anyone comment as to whether this is a disruptive event? Or is Europe so ordinarily devoid of such metals that it's comparatively little versus world supply?
- amarant 4y ago
  About 3% of rare earth metals mined globally are mined in Europe currently. About 30% of the global supply is used in Europe tho. That doesn't really indicate how much is available in the ground, but only what's being actively mined. Someone else wondered about concentrations of rare earth metals in the ground in this finding, and it's "unusually high: 0.18%" My source is both paywalled and in Swedish, sorry about that, but here it is: https://www.dn.se/ekonomi/jattefynd-av-sallsynta-jordartsmetaller-i-kiruna/ https://www.dn.se/ekonomi/jattefynd-av-sallsynta-jordartsmet...
  - kwhitefoot 4y ago
    Doesn't seem to be pay-walled at the moment although DN does encourage you to log in. I archived it on the Wayback Machine: https://web.archive.org/web/20230112191438/https://www.dn.se/ekonomi/jattefynd-av-sallsynta-jordartsmetaller-i-kiruna/ https://web.archive.org/web/20230112191438/https://www.dn.se...
LudwigNagasena 4y ago
According to a quick google, there are approximately 120 million metric tons of rare earths in the world. So that's not a minuscule amount, but also not earth-shattering.
- detrites 4y ago
  Seems about 200-300k is mined per year worldwide [0], so maybe it is a large amount if it could account for 3-4 years worth of the worlds mined supply. [0] - https://www.kitco.com/news/2022-02-07/Global-rare-earth-metals-production-up-17-in-2021-as-production-in-China-jumps-20.html https://www.kitco.com/news/2022-02-07/Global-rare-earth-meta...
- KptMarchewa 4y ago
  Those are "reserves" means proven deposits. There's generally no point of searching for more if you have proven deposits for decades ahead. That's why all the early predictions for peak oil have failed, the proponents assumed "proven oil reserves" are all that's left, while we still continue to search and find more. US ratio of "proven reserves" to production is stable for around 100 years.
fl_ciq 4y ago
Rare earths aren't really that rare, so probably not. Everyone has lots of rare earths, the rare thing is an environmental policy that allows them to be mined economically.
- Jensson 4y ago
  Not everyone has lots of rare earths... USA for example has just 1.8 million tonnes, and Europe currently has no significant rare earth mines. Rare earths are everywhere, true, but it is very rare to find them in high enough concentrations to be worth mining. https://investingnews.com/daily/resource-investing/critical-metals-investing/rare-earth-investing/rare-earth-reserves-country/ https://investingnews.com/daily/resource-investing/critical-...
- fmajid 4y ago
  The reason why China dominates supply is their willingness to operate the incredibly dirty refining process.
defrost 4y ago
It's a guesstimated million tonne of rare earth oxides .. it doesn't say in what kind of volume that million tonnes is diffused through (ie. how much has to be removed and sorted through) and then the oxides need to be processed to extract the actual rare earth elements. What you won't see for a few years yet is an industry standard Economic Feasibility Technical Report - which outlines over a thousand pages or so the model of the ore, the exploration techniques used to create that model, various alternative costed plans to extract that target ore (and the value of any other material also extracted) and the expected value of the ore over the lifetime of the mining operation. The key to this report is whether or not it's actually worth while to extract or whether it would cost more in earth movin and processing than the value of the result. As for the tonnage; > In 2019, Kiruna produced 14.7Mt of iron ore products [1] this is the adjacent current mine and the location from which a drift is being driven. Iron ore would be the co-product. For comparison; > Western Australia's iron ore output for 2020–21 was 838.7 million tonnes, the second-highest figure after 2017–18. ie: big iron regions (all of WA iron mines are in the Pilbara) produce ~ 57x the mass. Bear in mind that this million tonne of rare earth oxides would extracted over a decade or more, it's not going to be a fast hit all in a year. [1] https://www.mining-technology.com/projects/kiruna/ https://www.mining-technology.com/projects/kiruna/

Wonder what the practical implications of a million tonnes is? For industry, is a million tonnes really that much?

by bradhe 4y ago

Wonder what the practical implications of a million tonnes is? For industry, is a million tonnes really that much?

That's what I was going to ask: can anyone comment as to whether this is a disruptive event? Or is Europe so ordinarily devoid of such metals that it's comparatively little versus world supply?

amarant 4y ago
About 3% of rare earth metals mined globally are mined in Europe currently. About 30% of the global supply is used in Europe tho. That doesn't really indicate how much is available in the ground, but only what's being actively mined. Someone else wondered about concentrations of rare earth metals in the ground in this finding, and it's "unusually high: 0.18%" My source is both paywalled and in Swedish, sorry about that, but here it is: https://www.dn.se/ekonomi/jattefynd-av-sallsynta-jordartsmetaller-i-kiruna/ https://www.dn.se/ekonomi/jattefynd-av-sallsynta-jordartsmet...
- kwhitefoot 4y ago
  Doesn't seem to be pay-walled at the moment although DN does encourage you to log in. I archived it on the Wayback Machine: https://web.archive.org/web/20230112191438/https://www.dn.se/ekonomi/jattefynd-av-sallsynta-jordartsmetaller-i-kiruna/ https://web.archive.org/web/20230112191438/https://www.dn.se...

LudwigNagasena 4y ago

According to a quick google, there are approximately 120 million metric tons of rare earths in the world. So that's not a minuscule amount, but also not earth-shattering.

detrites 4y ago
Seems about 200-300k is mined per year worldwide [0], so maybe it is a large amount if it could account for 3-4 years worth of the worlds mined supply. [0] - https://www.kitco.com/news/2022-02-07/Global-rare-earth-metals-production-up-17-in-2021-as-production-in-China-jumps-20.html https://www.kitco.com/news/2022-02-07/Global-rare-earth-meta...
KptMarchewa 4y ago
Those are "reserves" means proven deposits. There's generally no point of searching for more if you have proven deposits for decades ahead. That's why all the early predictions for peak oil have failed, the proponents assumed "proven oil reserves" are all that's left, while we still continue to search and find more. US ratio of "proven reserves" to production is stable for around 100 years.

fl_ciq 4y ago

Rare earths aren't really that rare, so probably not. Everyone has lots of rare earths, the rare thing is an environmental policy that allows them to be mined economically.

Jensson 4y ago
Not everyone has lots of rare earths... USA for example has just 1.8 million tonnes, and Europe currently has no significant rare earth mines. Rare earths are everywhere, true, but it is very rare to find them in high enough concentrations to be worth mining. https://investingnews.com/daily/resource-investing/critical-metals-investing/rare-earth-investing/rare-earth-reserves-country/ https://investingnews.com/daily/resource-investing/critical-...
fmajid 4y ago
The reason why China dominates supply is their willingness to operate the incredibly dirty refining process.

defrost 4y ago

It's a guesstimated million tonne of rare earth oxides .. it doesn't say in what kind of volume that million tonnes is diffused through (ie. how much has to be removed and sorted through) and then the oxides need to be processed to extract the actual rare earth elements. What you won't see for a few years yet is an industry standard Economic Feasibility Technical Report - which outlines over a thousand pages or so the model of the ore, the exploration techniques used to create that model, various alternative costed plans to extract that target ore (and the value of any other material also extracted) and the expected value of the ore over the lifetime of the mining operation. The key to this report is whether or not it's actually worth while to extract or whether it would cost more in earth movin and processing than the value of the result. As for the tonnage; > In 2019, Kiruna produced 14.7Mt of iron ore products [1] this is the adjacent current mine and the location from which a drift is being driven. Iron ore would be the co-product. For comparison; > Western Australia's iron ore output for 2020–21 was 838.7 million tonnes, the second-highest figure after 2017–18. ie: big iron regions (all of WA iron mines are in the Pilbara) produce ~ 57x the mass. Bear in mind that this million tonne of rare earth oxides would extracted over a decade or more, it's not going to be a fast hit all in a year. [1] https://www.mining-technology.com/projects/kiruna/ https://www.mining-technology.com/projects/kiruna/