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A different perspective, the players are now completely risk averse. The past few years they've been concentrating resources on fewer larger budget movies with

A different perspective, the players are now completely risk averse. The past few years they've been concentrating resources on fewer larger budget movies with a much greater chance of success. The likes of the Marvel MCU, Star Wars and other sequels and remakes. They've chosen safe formulaic stories with evidenced success and pumped large amounts into the marketing of these films. The initial success of these drowned out any prospect of a low budget hit and have killed off the mid tier movie (those that were just fine and perhaps eeked out a small profit). Commentators in the past have noted how this focus could kill off the industry. Now a triple whammy. Firstly, there's less current evidence to justify funding these smaller films, as a consequence of the past few years. Secondly, the popularity of the formulaic big hit is starting to wane and thirdly, streaming, a wild card, has introduced uncertainty and volatility into this business model.

mschuster91 4y ago
> Secondly, the popularity of the formulaic big hit is starting to wane It's the same problem as everywhere else: When people get too greedy, they ruin the show for everyone else. The amount of content that Disney pumps out in the MCU is too immense to follow up - the cinema movies, okay, but even then if you want to start fresh it's like two days worth of non-stop binge starting from the OG Iron Man... but forget about all the side content on Disney+. The amount of money customers can set aside for entertainment is shrinking: three years of covid have eradicated savings, inflation has skyrocketed, and the future is looking uncertain AF - so the first thing that gets cut is entertainment. "Cord cutting" has become so commonplace it's a meme, but cinemas or even Netflix (!) have been hit by people trimming their budgets, and it doesn't help either that maintaining Netflix, Disney+, HBO and whatever else has grown so expensive it exceeds your prior cable TV bill. So that means people will go and see one, maybe two MCU movies a year and that's it - no budget left over for anyone else.
- thaumasiotes 4y ago
  > three years of covid have eradicated savings Saving went up because of the lockdowns. > The amount of content that Disney pumps out in the MCU is too immense to follow up - the cinema movies, okay I would diagnose a radically different problem - the MCU only has a lot of content measured in minutes of film. Measured in plot, there's almost nothing. I watched the 2016 film Doctor Strange. That was a huge mistake. I couldn't tell you anything about the film other than "Benedict Cumberbatch is in it" and "don't waste your time; there is no reason you'd ever want to see this". Ask me what happened, or indeed if anything happened, and I'll be stumped. It doesn't come as a surprise that with the decline of the idea that a movie should tell you a story, movies are getting less popular.
  - mschuster91 4y ago
    > Saving went up because of the lockdowns. Yes, for those who were able to save money of stimulus checks or whatever instead of having to use them to pay down debt. For those not in that fortunate position... well, 50% of Americans have less than 500$ in savings [1]. > It doesn't come as a surprise that with the decline of the idea that a movie should tell you a story, movies are getting less popular. Yeah... Disney has mastered the art of making money with (admittedly excellent) special effects. The problem is, they may have lowered the expectations people have for good storytelling - but raised the bar immensely for "acceptable effects". Not every independent movie director has access to people like the VFX dude behind OwlKitty (who does VFX work on scenes of popular movies where he inserts his floofy cat as a character or funny sidekick [1]). [1] https://news.prudential.com/generational-gap-grows-work-money-outlook-divided.htm https://news.prudential.com/generational-gap-grows-work-mone... [2] https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCpLQXR116cLVUa1LRY8KS4w https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCpLQXR116cLVUa1LRY8KS4w
    - thaumasiotes 4y ago
      > 50% of Americans have less than 500$ in savings Savings can't be eradicated by anything if they don't exist in the first place.
    - mdorazio 4y ago
      It's important to note that big movie gross earnings shifted significantly to favor international markets over the last ~15 years. Doctor Strange is a great example - the international gross was nearly double the domestic [1]. And international audiences tend to really like flashy SFX over memorable stories in big Hollywood movies, especially when said movies are going to be subbed or dubbed anyway. [1] https://www.boxofficemojo.com/releasegroup/gr2284737029/ https://www.boxofficemojo.com/releasegroup/gr2284737029/
      - thaumasiotes 4y ago
        > And international audiences tend to really like flashy SFX over memorable stories in big Hollywood movies, especially when said movies are going to be subbed or dubbed anyway. Why would subtitling or dubbing make a difference? That doesn't change the plot. Is the value of Arthurian stories lessened by the fact that they were originally written in medieval French? Translating the language will generally ruin wordplay, but that's a very different thing.
- rg111 4y ago
  > When people get too greedy, they ruin the show for everyone else. But it doesn't matter to them. When you have one hit like Avengers: Endgame, and some more like Black Panther, Infinity Wat, etc., HUNDREDS OF PEOPLE have LIFE CHANGING MONEY. They won't give two hoots about ruined market or killing the golden goose. If the goose gave a diamong of the same size of the golden egg, the owner wouldn’t fret killing it at all. One is enough.
- bombcar 4y ago
  One of the problems with a long-running series or show is that at some point potential new viewers (consciously or unconsciously) think there’s too much backstory to watch to understand the latest. Even if the movies are basically standalone; people may just ignore it because they haven’t seen all of them.
everdrive 4y ago
>They've chosen safe formulaic stories with evidenced success >Star Wars Except I suppose with the second Star Wars, where they threw out the most of the movie in order to "subvert expectations"
- lommelun 4y ago
  They only “subvert expectations” in popular content. First seasons and new IPs are fairly traditional and follow common writing tropes (although poorly, as if the knowledge has eroded). It’s only when something gets popular that it gets the “updated for modern audiences” treatment.
- fakedang 4y ago
  I would say they wanted to follow the original formula way too closely, hence all the stuff that actually subverted expectations for the worse.
fakedang 4y ago
Considering that most movie production is currently financed by hedge funds and private equity shops, it shouldn't come as much of a surprise.
BeFlatXIII 4y ago
Good. Let it collapse and then laugh at everyone in LA.

mschuster91 4y ago

> Secondly, the popularity of the formulaic big hit is starting to wane It's the same problem as everywhere else: When people get too greedy, they ruin the show for everyone else. The amount of content that Disney pumps out in the MCU is too immense to follow up - the cinema movies, okay, but even then if you want to start fresh it's like two days worth of non-stop binge starting from the OG Iron Man... but forget about all the side content on Disney+. The amount of money customers can set aside for entertainment is shrinking: three years of covid have eradicated savings, inflation has skyrocketed, and the future is looking uncertain AF - so the first thing that gets cut is entertainment. "Cord cutting" has become so commonplace it's a meme, but cinemas or even Netflix (!) have been hit by people trimming their budgets, and it doesn't help either that maintaining Netflix, Disney+, HBO and whatever else has grown so expensive it exceeds your prior cable TV bill. So that means people will go and see one, maybe two MCU movies a year and that's it - no budget left over for anyone else.

thaumasiotes 4y ago
> three years of covid have eradicated savings Saving went up because of the lockdowns. > The amount of content that Disney pumps out in the MCU is too immense to follow up - the cinema movies, okay I would diagnose a radically different problem - the MCU only has a lot of content measured in minutes of film. Measured in plot, there's almost nothing. I watched the 2016 film Doctor Strange. That was a huge mistake. I couldn't tell you anything about the film other than "Benedict Cumberbatch is in it" and "don't waste your time; there is no reason you'd ever want to see this". Ask me what happened, or indeed if anything happened, and I'll be stumped. It doesn't come as a surprise that with the decline of the idea that a movie should tell you a story, movies are getting less popular.
- mschuster91 4y ago
  > Saving went up because of the lockdowns. Yes, for those who were able to save money of stimulus checks or whatever instead of having to use them to pay down debt. For those not in that fortunate position... well, 50% of Americans have less than 500$ in savings [1]. > It doesn't come as a surprise that with the decline of the idea that a movie should tell you a story, movies are getting less popular. Yeah... Disney has mastered the art of making money with (admittedly excellent) special effects. The problem is, they may have lowered the expectations people have for good storytelling - but raised the bar immensely for "acceptable effects". Not every independent movie director has access to people like the VFX dude behind OwlKitty (who does VFX work on scenes of popular movies where he inserts his floofy cat as a character or funny sidekick [1]). [1] https://news.prudential.com/generational-gap-grows-work-money-outlook-divided.htm https://news.prudential.com/generational-gap-grows-work-mone... [2] https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCpLQXR116cLVUa1LRY8KS4w https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCpLQXR116cLVUa1LRY8KS4w
  - thaumasiotes 4y ago
    > 50% of Americans have less than 500$ in savings Savings can't be eradicated by anything if they don't exist in the first place.
  - mdorazio 4y ago
    It's important to note that big movie gross earnings shifted significantly to favor international markets over the last ~15 years. Doctor Strange is a great example - the international gross was nearly double the domestic [1]. And international audiences tend to really like flashy SFX over memorable stories in big Hollywood movies, especially when said movies are going to be subbed or dubbed anyway. [1] https://www.boxofficemojo.com/releasegroup/gr2284737029/ https://www.boxofficemojo.com/releasegroup/gr2284737029/
    - thaumasiotes 4y ago
      > And international audiences tend to really like flashy SFX over memorable stories in big Hollywood movies, especially when said movies are going to be subbed or dubbed anyway. Why would subtitling or dubbing make a difference? That doesn't change the plot. Is the value of Arthurian stories lessened by the fact that they were originally written in medieval French? Translating the language will generally ruin wordplay, but that's a very different thing.
rg111 4y ago
> When people get too greedy, they ruin the show for everyone else. But it doesn't matter to them. When you have one hit like Avengers: Endgame, and some more like Black Panther, Infinity Wat, etc., HUNDREDS OF PEOPLE have LIFE CHANGING MONEY. They won't give two hoots about ruined market or killing the golden goose. If the goose gave a diamong of the same size of the golden egg, the owner wouldn’t fret killing it at all. One is enough.
bombcar 4y ago
One of the problems with a long-running series or show is that at some point potential new viewers (consciously or unconsciously) think there’s too much backstory to watch to understand the latest. Even if the movies are basically standalone; people may just ignore it because they haven’t seen all of them.

everdrive 4y ago

>They've chosen safe formulaic stories with evidenced success >Star Wars Except I suppose with the second Star Wars, where they threw out the most of the movie in order to "subvert expectations"

lommelun 4y ago
They only “subvert expectations” in popular content. First seasons and new IPs are fairly traditional and follow common writing tropes (although poorly, as if the knowledge has eroded). It’s only when something gets popular that it gets the “updated for modern audiences” treatment.
fakedang 4y ago
I would say they wanted to follow the original formula way too closely, hence all the stuff that actually subverted expectations for the worse.

fakedang 4y ago

Considering that most movie production is currently financed by hedge funds and private equity shops, it shouldn't come as much of a surprise.

BeFlatXIII 4y ago

Good. Let it collapse and then laugh at everyone in LA.