It's not the time, it's the unknown/unseen factor that's making it likely or unlikely. You think you are seeing lighting striking a tree. But maybe what you are

It's not the time, it's the unknown/unseen factor that's making it likely or unlikely. You think you are seeing lighting striking a tree. But maybe what you are actually seeing is lighting striking a lighting rod. Lightning will not strike a TREE again because usually it destroys the tree in some way, changing it's height. But for many other things (buildings, mountains, etc), lightning will happily strike it over and over again. Is the car in a ditch for a truly unlikely reason, or there a hidden lightning rod there? Perhaps you shouldn't assume a seemingly unlikely event won't happen again.