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The 'good weather' may have some problematic knock-on effects some months down the road if it keeps up, even if the lower demand due to record winter warmth has

The 'good weather' may have some problematic knock-on effects some months down the road if it keeps up, even if the lower demand due to record winter warmth has reduced spot prices on the LNG market. Warm weather trends could mean less snowpack across the region and potential drought conditions, which could impact everything from agricultural production to reduced summer hydroelectric production to problems with the cooling water supply for France's fleet of nuclear reactors: > "So while the current mild weather is viewed by some as having prevented a deeper power crisis stemming from gas shortages, the low snow and rain totals this winter may themselves pose an even greater risk if the warm and dry conditions continue." https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/europes-mild-weather-reprieve-this-winter-may-come-bite-by-summer-2023-01-11/ https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/europes-mild-wea... Notably, the trend of winters warming at a more rapid rate than summers in continental interiors is a long-standing prediction of climate models. Another feature is increased climatic instability associated with the gradually increasing water vapor content of the atmosphere (~7% increase per 1C temp rise), meaning long-term predictions are less reliable. Another factor that might be influencing the current relatively low European gas price is the trend towards de-industrialization in Europe, which is not a good sign for long-term economic health: > "Energy-intensive industries, such as aluminium, fertilisers, and chemicals are at risk of companies permanently shifting production to locations where cheap energy abounds, such as the United States. Even as an unusually warm October and projections of a mild winter helped drive prices lower, natural gas in the United States still costs about a fifth what companies pay in Europe." https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/energy-crisis-chips-away-europes-industrial-might-2022-11-02/ https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/energy-crisis-chips-... There is long-term potential for renewable energy to replace most natural gas demand, and if 10X as much effort had gone into it over the past ten years, Europe might not be in this bind at all.

melenaboija 4y ago
> Warm weather trends could mean less snowpack across the region and potential drought conditions, which could impact everything from agricultural production to reduced summer hydroelectric production to problems with the cooling water supply for France's fleet of nuclear reactors. The problem for agriculture there is not only water, it also needs cold periods for better harvests and fruit production.
felipeerias 4y ago
Energy policy has been the gravest mistake in recent European history and it wasn’t for lack of viable alternatives. We Europeans like to make fun of Americans, but at least they managed to become energy independent in the same time span. All that we have in Europe is a shrinking industrial base and the largest war on European soil in 80 years (yet I’m sure we will still find a way to feel morally superior to the rest of the world somehow).
- farseer 4y ago
  You are looking at this the wrong way. Europe's problem is not its dependence on Russian energy but but its inability to say no to America and Britain when that duo interfere in mainland security matters. Its mind boggling that a country of Germany's size and might can't tell America to fuck off "Ukraine is not going to be in your sphere of influence". The tapped phone call between American diplomats back in 2014 was supposed to expose the outsize American role in Ukraine right before Russia seized Crimea: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26079957 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26079957
  - RhodesianHunter 4y ago
    That would make total sense had Germany not been making all of the wrong moves and relatively in bed with Russia the entire time, as opposed to the United States' support of Ukraine and anti-corruption movements there. In your imagined scenario everything regarding Ukraine would be worse off, not better.
    - chihuahua 4y ago
      I would like to understand why Germany loves Russia so much, despite what's happened over the past year. There was all kinds of funny business with Nordstream, Manuela Schleswig's fishy "foundation", and more. I can understand Schroeder - he's just getting paid by Putin every year. But Scholz? It seems that every month he makes up a different reason why Germany can't properly support Ukraine. A few helmets and kevlar vests and a handful of Gepards without ammunition, but Leopard 2s? God no, we couldn't possibly do that, it might hurt Putin's feelings! It seems he wants to give Ukraine just enough to watch them slowly bleed out. Is it just that Putin is paying off most of the German politicians, and has been doing so for years? I guess they're pretty cheap to buy, and they're completely shameless about it - just look at Schroeder.
sAbakumoff 4y ago
i don't know man it's raining like hell in the netherlands

melenaboija 4y ago

> Warm weather trends could mean less snowpack across the region and potential drought conditions, which could impact everything from agricultural production to reduced summer hydroelectric production to problems with the cooling water supply for France's fleet of nuclear reactors. The problem for agriculture there is not only water, it also needs cold periods for better harvests and fruit production.

felipeerias 4y ago

Energy policy has been the gravest mistake in recent European history and it wasn’t for lack of viable alternatives. We Europeans like to make fun of Americans, but at least they managed to become energy independent in the same time span. All that we have in Europe is a shrinking industrial base and the largest war on European soil in 80 years (yet I’m sure we will still find a way to feel morally superior to the rest of the world somehow).

farseer 4y ago
You are looking at this the wrong way. Europe's problem is not its dependence on Russian energy but but its inability to say no to America and Britain when that duo interfere in mainland security matters. Its mind boggling that a country of Germany's size and might can't tell America to fuck off "Ukraine is not going to be in your sphere of influence". The tapped phone call between American diplomats back in 2014 was supposed to expose the outsize American role in Ukraine right before Russia seized Crimea: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26079957 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26079957
- RhodesianHunter 4y ago
  That would make total sense had Germany not been making all of the wrong moves and relatively in bed with Russia the entire time, as opposed to the United States' support of Ukraine and anti-corruption movements there. In your imagined scenario everything regarding Ukraine would be worse off, not better.
  - chihuahua 4y ago
    I would like to understand why Germany loves Russia so much, despite what's happened over the past year. There was all kinds of funny business with Nordstream, Manuela Schleswig's fishy "foundation", and more. I can understand Schroeder - he's just getting paid by Putin every year. But Scholz? It seems that every month he makes up a different reason why Germany can't properly support Ukraine. A few helmets and kevlar vests and a handful of Gepards without ammunition, but Leopard 2s? God no, we couldn't possibly do that, it might hurt Putin's feelings! It seems he wants to give Ukraine just enough to watch them slowly bleed out. Is it just that Putin is paying off most of the German politicians, and has been doing so for years? I guess they're pretty cheap to buy, and they're completely shameless about it - just look at Schroeder.

sAbakumoff 4y ago

i don't know man it's raining like hell in the netherlands