4 ms·

what stands out to me is that hopefully this crisis has broken up some of the static mentality we've had here. We had for the most part adopted the narrative th

what stands out to me is that hopefully this crisis has broken up some of the static mentality we've had here. We had for the most part adopted the narrative that Russian energy is necessary, the economy will die otherwise, and so on. Now we're building LNG terminals in Germany, we're building a pipeline to Norway for hydrogen, all that stuff is suddenly possible in months when it took us decades to built a trainstation in Stuttgart. When shit hits the fan apparently we can still move things. The entire last year has made me oddly enough more optimistic. The continent is holding together, in addition to the weather the demographically tight labor market is sort of a blessing as unemployment remains low even with economic hickups and there's a real awareness that the status quo on many fronts wasn't sustainable.

tasuki 4y ago
> Now we're building LNG terminals in Germany That's not a good thing. LNG is not a good solution, apart from being easy and readily at hand.
lakomen 4y ago
[flagged]
- coffeebeqn 4y ago
  Have you not seen any reports from Ukraine?
- UncleMeat 4y ago
  Invading a neighboring nation and bombing their cities in order to capture more territory for yourself is pretty darn bad.
  - knowaveragejoe 4y ago
    Russia is not operating as a misunderstood "good guy", the person you're replying to is caught up in contrarianism for its own sake.
Animatronio 4y ago
Things are not that simple unfortunately. The lack of an energy crisis this winter due to warm weather should not be mistaken for absence of economic harm, as in demand destruction. A high gas import bill is problematic for European economies, especially the ones that have a well-developed heavy industry, which tend to be also heavy gas users. This means the Europeans won’t be able to compete on international markets due to the higher cost of energy. IIRC I read somewhere (dbresearch probably) that chemical industry shrank by ~21% in Germany in Q4. Lost production will have to be replaced by imports, adding to the trade deficit caused by higher energy prices/LNG.
- dividedbyzero 4y ago
  There is economical harm and that cannot be changed. But GP has a point in that Germany seems to have abandoned its stance of weathering crises by mostly waiting them out. The consequences of the Ukraine war for Germany are serious and will have to be dealt with, but there is a lot of potential to do so, and I agree with GP it's a good sign that there appears to be both willingness and ability to make use of that potential, though Germany will need a lot more of that in the coming months and years.
xupybd 4y ago
I honestly thought Trump was mad when he told Germany off for Russian imports. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-nato-summit-pipeline-idUSKBN1K10VI https://www.reuters.com/article/us-nato-summit-pipeline-idUS...
- wozniacki 4y ago
  German delegation’s response at UNGA when Trump says “Germany will become totally dependent on Russian energy if it does not immediately change course.” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FfJv9QYrlwg https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FfJv9QYrlwg
  - RhodesianHunter 4y ago
    Isn't this the same speech that he started by saying "my administration has accomplished more than almost any administration in the history of our country"? No wonder they're laughing.
    - mensetmanusman 4y ago
      Every administration says nonsense like that because there is no way to measure such fluff.
      - RhodesianHunter 4y ago
        No, other administrations have some humility.
- thefounder 4y ago
  Trump said nothing new. The issue was known for decades but Germany liked cheap gas too much(i.e like the U.S liked cheap labour from China). Not to mention that Trump also said EU is a foe for the U.S and Russia is treated unfairly. Trump was a true clown that just said a lot of things hoping something will stick. It's amazing that people still quote him.
skippyboxedhero 4y ago
We have learned nothing. Europe is nestling close to China. Environmentalists continue to block all efforts to wean us off Russian gas. The real economic adjustment to higher energy costs has not come with hundreds of billions of subsidies (so environmentalists win the day politically...everyone thinks it will be fine, they don't see that German unemployment would be north of 20% if this ran it's course). It has just started.
- hem777 4y ago
  That’s just all FUD.
rjzzleep 4y ago
[flagged]
- nl 4y ago
  > Let's not forget that Russia and Ukraine had a ceasefire negotiated in May whereby Russia would have pulled back to the pre February lines, and that Boris Johnson rushed to Kiev to intervene[1]. That is the exact opposite of what the referenced link say: > According to multiple former senior U.S. officials we spoke with, in April 2022, Russian and Ukrainian negotiators appeared to have tentatively agreed on the outlines of a negotiated interim settlement: Russia would withdraw to its position on February 23, when it controlled part of the Donbas region and all of Crimea, and in exchange, Ukraine would promise not to seek NATO membership and instead receive security guarantees from a number of countries. But as Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated in a July interview with his country’s state media, this compromise is no longer an option. Even giving Russia all of the Donbas is not enough. “Now the geography is different,” Lavrov asserted, in describing Russia’s short-term military aims. “It’s also Kherson and the Zaporizhzhya regions and a number of other territories.” The goal is not negotiation, but Ukrainian capitulation. https://archive.is/1V1Wv#selection-4391.57-4411.207 https://archive.is/1V1Wv#selection-4391.57-4411.207 There's a bunch of other things in this comment that also reflect standard Russian propaganda. For example this is straight from Russian claims but has no basis in fact: > The result of that 7 year effort is that the sanctions politics on Russia have damaged the western economies way more than Russia. It's true that Russia spent a lot of effort protecting their economy from sanctions. But the personal sanctions on individuals have been effective.
- reducesuffering 4y ago
  Don't twist your source's words: "Putin seems uninterested in a compromise that would leave Ukraine as a sovereign, independent state—whatever its borders. According to multiple former senior U.S. officials we spoke with, in April 2022, Russian and Ukrainian negotiators appeared to have tentatively agreed on the outlines of a negotiated interim settlement: Russia would withdraw to its position on February 23, when it controlled part of the Donbas region and all of Crimea, and in exchange, Ukraine would promise not to seek NATO membership and instead receive security guarantees from a number of countries. But as Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated in a July interview with his country’s state media, this compromise is no longer an option. Even giving Russia all of the Donbas is not enough. “Now the geography is different,” Lavrov asserted, in describing Russia’s short-term military aims. “It’s also Kherson and the Zaporizhzhya regions and a number of other territories.” The goal is not negotiation, but Ukrainian capitulation." > Russia and Ukraine had a ceasefire negotiated in May whereby Russia would have pulled back to the pre February lines, and that Boris Johnson rushed to Kiev to intervene Putin has never wanted to settle thus far. It's not due to Boris, and your single source says nothing of the sort. It's a Russian cover tactic.
unity1001 4y ago
> Now we're building LNG terminals in Germany, we're building a pipeline to Norway for hydrogen, all that stuff is suddenly possible in months Building something does not mean that you will be able to fill it. The LNG comes from the US, who source it themselves from domestic and arab sources. The next biggest source of gas is Qatar and they explicitly said that they couldnt fulfill Europe's gas demand even if they sold their entire stock to Europe directly. Russian gas and energy still are the only sources that can supply the world globally. Even the US strategic petroleum reserve is dwindling as the US makes a quick buck selling its oil to Europe on inflated prices to the extent that it started making German and French governments complain publicly. Of course, there is also the Russian gas and oil that they buy from intermediaries and then sell to Europe - a fine example of US corporate-state mentality.
MandieD 4y ago
Driving to my in-laws in Niedersachsen up from northern Bavaria through the former East on Christmas Eve was revelatory: not only a slight increase in windmills, along with several of those enormous blades parked on the side, but banks of solar panels along with Autobahns everywhere, in various states of construction, but the ones with panels up were of course more conspicuous. Those solar panels weren't there back in June.

tasuki 4y ago

> Now we're building LNG terminals in Germany That's not a good thing. LNG is not a good solution, apart from being easy and readily at hand.

lakomen 4y ago

[flagged]

coffeebeqn 4y ago
Have you not seen any reports from Ukraine?
UncleMeat 4y ago
Invading a neighboring nation and bombing their cities in order to capture more territory for yourself is pretty darn bad.
- knowaveragejoe 4y ago
  Russia is not operating as a misunderstood "good guy", the person you're replying to is caught up in contrarianism for its own sake.

Animatronio 4y ago

Things are not that simple unfortunately. The lack of an energy crisis this winter due to warm weather should not be mistaken for absence of economic harm, as in demand destruction. A high gas import bill is problematic for European economies, especially the ones that have a well-developed heavy industry, which tend to be also heavy gas users. This means the Europeans won’t be able to compete on international markets due to the higher cost of energy. IIRC I read somewhere (dbresearch probably) that chemical industry shrank by ~21% in Germany in Q4. Lost production will have to be replaced by imports, adding to the trade deficit caused by higher energy prices/LNG.

dividedbyzero 4y ago
There is economical harm and that cannot be changed. But GP has a point in that Germany seems to have abandoned its stance of weathering crises by mostly waiting them out. The consequences of the Ukraine war for Germany are serious and will have to be dealt with, but there is a lot of potential to do so, and I agree with GP it's a good sign that there appears to be both willingness and ability to make use of that potential, though Germany will need a lot more of that in the coming months and years.

xupybd 4y ago

I honestly thought Trump was mad when he told Germany off for Russian imports. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-nato-summit-pipeline-idUSKBN1K10VI https://www.reuters.com/article/us-nato-summit-pipeline-idUS...

wozniacki 4y ago
German delegation’s response at UNGA when Trump says “Germany will become totally dependent on Russian energy if it does not immediately change course.” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FfJv9QYrlwg https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FfJv9QYrlwg
- RhodesianHunter 4y ago
  Isn't this the same speech that he started by saying "my administration has accomplished more than almost any administration in the history of our country"? No wonder they're laughing.
  - mensetmanusman 4y ago
    Every administration says nonsense like that because there is no way to measure such fluff.
    - RhodesianHunter 4y ago
      No, other administrations have some humility.
thefounder 4y ago
Trump said nothing new. The issue was known for decades but Germany liked cheap gas too much(i.e like the U.S liked cheap labour from China). Not to mention that Trump also said EU is a foe for the U.S and Russia is treated unfairly. Trump was a true clown that just said a lot of things hoping something will stick. It's amazing that people still quote him.

skippyboxedhero 4y ago

We have learned nothing. Europe is nestling close to China. Environmentalists continue to block all efforts to wean us off Russian gas. The real economic adjustment to higher energy costs has not come with hundreds of billions of subsidies (so environmentalists win the day politically...everyone thinks it will be fine, they don't see that German unemployment would be north of 20% if this ran it's course). It has just started.

hem777 4y ago
That’s just all FUD.

rjzzleep 4y ago

[flagged]

nl 4y ago
> Let's not forget that Russia and Ukraine had a ceasefire negotiated in May whereby Russia would have pulled back to the pre February lines, and that Boris Johnson rushed to Kiev to intervene[1]. That is the exact opposite of what the referenced link say: > According to multiple former senior U.S. officials we spoke with, in April 2022, Russian and Ukrainian negotiators appeared to have tentatively agreed on the outlines of a negotiated interim settlement: Russia would withdraw to its position on February 23, when it controlled part of the Donbas region and all of Crimea, and in exchange, Ukraine would promise not to seek NATO membership and instead receive security guarantees from a number of countries. But as Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated in a July interview with his country’s state media, this compromise is no longer an option. Even giving Russia all of the Donbas is not enough. “Now the geography is different,” Lavrov asserted, in describing Russia’s short-term military aims. “It’s also Kherson and the Zaporizhzhya regions and a number of other territories.” The goal is not negotiation, but Ukrainian capitulation. https://archive.is/1V1Wv#selection-4391.57-4411.207 https://archive.is/1V1Wv#selection-4391.57-4411.207 There's a bunch of other things in this comment that also reflect standard Russian propaganda. For example this is straight from Russian claims but has no basis in fact: > The result of that 7 year effort is that the sanctions politics on Russia have damaged the western economies way more than Russia. It's true that Russia spent a lot of effort protecting their economy from sanctions. But the personal sanctions on individuals have been effective.
reducesuffering 4y ago
Don't twist your source's words: "Putin seems uninterested in a compromise that would leave Ukraine as a sovereign, independent state—whatever its borders. According to multiple former senior U.S. officials we spoke with, in April 2022, Russian and Ukrainian negotiators appeared to have tentatively agreed on the outlines of a negotiated interim settlement: Russia would withdraw to its position on February 23, when it controlled part of the Donbas region and all of Crimea, and in exchange, Ukraine would promise not to seek NATO membership and instead receive security guarantees from a number of countries. But as Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated in a July interview with his country’s state media, this compromise is no longer an option. Even giving Russia all of the Donbas is not enough. “Now the geography is different,” Lavrov asserted, in describing Russia’s short-term military aims. “It’s also Kherson and the Zaporizhzhya regions and a number of other territories.” The goal is not negotiation, but Ukrainian capitulation." > Russia and Ukraine had a ceasefire negotiated in May whereby Russia would have pulled back to the pre February lines, and that Boris Johnson rushed to Kiev to intervene Putin has never wanted to settle thus far. It's not due to Boris, and your single source says nothing of the sort. It's a Russian cover tactic.

unity1001 4y ago

> Now we're building LNG terminals in Germany, we're building a pipeline to Norway for hydrogen, all that stuff is suddenly possible in months Building something does not mean that you will be able to fill it. The LNG comes from the US, who source it themselves from domestic and arab sources. The next biggest source of gas is Qatar and they explicitly said that they couldnt fulfill Europe's gas demand even if they sold their entire stock to Europe directly. Russian gas and energy still are the only sources that can supply the world globally. Even the US strategic petroleum reserve is dwindling as the US makes a quick buck selling its oil to Europe on inflated prices to the extent that it started making German and French governments complain publicly. Of course, there is also the Russian gas and oil that they buy from intermediaries and then sell to Europe - a fine example of US corporate-state mentality.

MandieD 4y ago

Driving to my in-laws in Niedersachsen up from northern Bavaria through the former East on Christmas Eve was revelatory: not only a slight increase in windmills, along with several of those enormous blades parked on the side, but banks of solar panels along with Autobahns everywhere, in various states of construction, but the ones with panels up were of course more conspicuous. Those solar panels weren't there back in June.