5 ms·

What kind of solar install could have been finished by now?

Retric 4y ago
I don’t really know, my point was really more about them seemingly putting all their eggs in one basket even though the total drop in natural gas as a percentage of energy generation supply wasn’t that big. A rough ballpark to see if it could have been meaningful, they had most of the year and annual production is something like ~200GW of solar panels vs average electricity production in the EU is ~300 GW. I have no idea how much could have been fast tracked but moving the needle quite far seems possible. But again I am not an expert and their plan seems to have worked.
- kzrdude 4y ago
  Diversifying it is a good point. While gas was maybe the focus for this winter, of course it would be good to start the solar initiative at the same time so that it can be ready for some future year.
coffeebeqn 4y ago
And what kind of yield would you get in December - February when you really need to heat the houses? Europe is much higher north than many assume
- Retric 4y ago
  Offsetting demand natural gas demand in June also lets you stockpile that natural gas. The EU produces a great deal of natural gas and can store it just fine, they simply needed to make up a deficit.
  - loeg 4y ago
    That would not have helped for this winter.
    - Retric 4y ago
      Natural gas in a tank is just as useful if it’s there because it was imported or stockpiled.
      - loeg 4y ago
        You misunderstand. For it to be useful this winter, additional solar would have needed to have been deployed at the beginning of summer. Your timeline is: Russia invades February 24. Your most effective solar window is April-October. The solar would have needed to be built in 1-2 months to offset summer gas use.
        Retric 4y ago
        It’s more effective to bring solar online sooner because it’s providing power every month after being installed thus providing a longer window to stockpile natural gas. However, while output is lower in December it’s still useful for December, January, and February and then continues to provide power into the future. The EU is very much still concerned about having enough natural gas for next winter.
  - tialaramex 4y ago
    As an example the UK "stockpile" of gas is notionally 9 TWh although in practice you definitely shouldn't treat that whole volume as slack because if it ever runs out everything is fucked. The UK uses typically maybe 700 GWh per day of electricity. So the stockpile you're talking about is less than two weeks of electricity you've "offset" from the summer. OK, and now what do we do for the remaining months of winter ?
    - Retric 4y ago
      UK doesn’t supply 100% of electricity from natural gas only 38.5% and they continue to produce natural gas in the winter. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electricity_sector_in_the_United_Kingdom https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electricity_sector_in_the_Unit... Let’s suppose the deficit is 40% of natural gas which represents a daily deficit of ~40% * 0.385 = 15.4% of electricity generation. So that 9 TWh represents 9,000 / 700 / 0.385 / 0.4 = ~83 days which is already quite close to spring without any additional imports. But, I am also suggesting bringing more power generation online which further decrease the gap. PS: Even just 3% of total daily electricity being covered by new generation that ~83 days to ~104 days, again before considering any extra imports.
      - tialaramex 4y ago
        The 38.5% figure you're using is a mean over the course of a year so you're double counting, and the 40% you've chosen to discount by is an arbitrary fiction, the question is about the value of a "stockpile" and so arbitrarily assuming we can just buy more gas as we please to fill some of it back up begs the question.
        Retric 4y ago
        Point to a specific calculation where 38.5% double counting. That 40% was a ridiculous over the top doomsday estimate as the UK procedures a lot of natural gas and only ~7% of their imports came from Russia in 2021. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1324377/uk-natural-gas-imports-by-origin-country/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/1324377/uk-natural-gas-i... The only reason to use 40% is to simulate the EU is reducing global supply and it’s impact wasn’t even close to that severe. As to just buying more natural gas, that’s what actually happened so I don’t need to assume anything. The entire EU was able to successfully replace all Russian natural gas from the global market.
- SaintGhurka 4y ago
  Almost all of Europe is north of the 42nd parallel, which is about even with where Illinois borders Wisconsin. Berlin only gets about 9 hours of visible light today.
MandieD 4y ago
Lots of 5-10 acre-looking parks along the Autobahns outside of cities, financed by various regional power companies and run by specialized solar operators, often outside their home regions (example: an EnBW park run by a company based near Stuttgart, located next to a rest stop in Thüringen)

I don’t really know, my point was really more about them seemingly putting all their eggs in one basket even though the total drop in natural gas as a percentage of energy generation supply wasn’t that big. A rough ballpark to see if it could have been meaningful, they had most of the year and annual production is something like ~200GW of solar panels vs average electricity production in the EU is ~300 GW. I have no idea how much could have been fast tracked but moving the needle quite far seems possible. But again I am not an expert and their plan seems to have worked.

kzrdude 4y ago
Diversifying it is a good point. While gas was maybe the focus for this winter, of course it would be good to start the solar initiative at the same time so that it can be ready for some future year.

coffeebeqn 4y ago

And what kind of yield would you get in December - February when you really need to heat the houses? Europe is much higher north than many assume

Retric 4y ago
Offsetting demand natural gas demand in June also lets you stockpile that natural gas. The EU produces a great deal of natural gas and can store it just fine, they simply needed to make up a deficit.
- loeg 4y ago
  That would not have helped for this winter.
  - Retric 4y ago
    Natural gas in a tank is just as useful if it’s there because it was imported or stockpiled.
    - loeg 4y ago
      You misunderstand. For it to be useful this winter, additional solar would have needed to have been deployed at the beginning of summer. Your timeline is: Russia invades February 24. Your most effective solar window is April-October. The solar would have needed to be built in 1-2 months to offset summer gas use.
      - Retric 4y ago
        It’s more effective to bring solar online sooner because it’s providing power every month after being installed thus providing a longer window to stockpile natural gas. However, while output is lower in December it’s still useful for December, January, and February and then continues to provide power into the future. The EU is very much still concerned about having enough natural gas for next winter.
- tialaramex 4y ago
  As an example the UK "stockpile" of gas is notionally 9 TWh although in practice you definitely shouldn't treat that whole volume as slack because if it ever runs out everything is fucked. The UK uses typically maybe 700 GWh per day of electricity. So the stockpile you're talking about is less than two weeks of electricity you've "offset" from the summer. OK, and now what do we do for the remaining months of winter ?
  - Retric 4y ago
    UK doesn’t supply 100% of electricity from natural gas only 38.5% and they continue to produce natural gas in the winter. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electricity_sector_in_the_United_Kingdom https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electricity_sector_in_the_Unit... Let’s suppose the deficit is 40% of natural gas which represents a daily deficit of ~40% * 0.385 = 15.4% of electricity generation. So that 9 TWh represents 9,000 / 700 / 0.385 / 0.4 = ~83 days which is already quite close to spring without any additional imports. But, I am also suggesting bringing more power generation online which further decrease the gap. PS: Even just 3% of total daily electricity being covered by new generation that ~83 days to ~104 days, again before considering any extra imports.
    - tialaramex 4y ago
      The 38.5% figure you're using is a mean over the course of a year so you're double counting, and the 40% you've chosen to discount by is an arbitrary fiction, the question is about the value of a "stockpile" and so arbitrarily assuming we can just buy more gas as we please to fill some of it back up begs the question.
      - Retric 4y ago
        Point to a specific calculation where 38.5% double counting. That 40% was a ridiculous over the top doomsday estimate as the UK procedures a lot of natural gas and only ~7% of their imports came from Russia in 2021. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1324377/uk-natural-gas-imports-by-origin-country/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/1324377/uk-natural-gas-i... The only reason to use 40% is to simulate the EU is reducing global supply and it’s impact wasn’t even close to that severe. As to just buying more natural gas, that’s what actually happened so I don’t need to assume anything. The entire EU was able to successfully replace all Russian natural gas from the global market.
SaintGhurka 4y ago
Almost all of Europe is north of the 42nd parallel, which is about even with where Illinois borders Wisconsin. Berlin only gets about 9 hours of visible light today.

MandieD 4y ago

Lots of 5-10 acre-looking parks along the Autobahns outside of cities, financed by various regional power companies and run by specialized solar operators, often outside their home regions (example: an EnBW park run by a company based near Stuttgart, located next to a rest stop in Thüringen)