3 ms·

We aren't considering anything in light of what we're capable of. We're considering it through the lens of a civilization hundreds, thousands, millions of years

We aren't considering anything in light of what we're capable of. We're considering it through the lens of a civilization hundreds, thousands, millions of years more advanced than us. For such a civilization, I think talking about the 'cost' of things is somewhat of an abstract idea because advanced automation is surely possible for them. Once I am capable of producing a self-replicating machine capable of strong-AI level cognition all I have to do is release one at the frontier of my empire, instruct it to seed itself as widely as it can, build up massive stockpiles of processed resources and energy, and await further instructions. Such a network would be capable of nearly arbitrary levels of resource utilization, all of which could be redirected into wiping out my cosmic neighbors, since my species's immediate needs are satisfied by a similar post-scarcity system. If I am capable of such a thing and I choose not to employ the strategy of ruthlessly exterminating all life of which I am aware I run the risk of someone else developing this technology and doing the same to me. The only possible scenario where this doesn't hold water is if it's somehow advantageous to long-term survival of both parties to cooperate and exchange technology rather than spend resources annihilating each other. I think even the simplest game theory analysis will tell us that can't possibly be true.

vecter 4y ago
> The only possible scenario where this doesn't hold water There are way too many assumptions baked into what you wrote to make that the only possible scenario where the Dark Forest is incorrect. You basically assume that the benefits of this outweigh the costs, which is entirely unfounded. You also assume that the technology for this is possible. Just saying "imagine something millions (heck I'll give you billions given how old the Milky Way is) of years more advanced than us" does not logically necessitate any of these assumptions to be true. And if the Dark Forest is so obviously true, why hasn't it happened yet? Why are we still alive? For a 10 billion year-old galaxy, you'd imagine there's at least one other sentient species out there capable of such technology (if such technology is even ever possible in this universe, which is not yet proven of course). If you believe in the Dark Forest, then you must be indiscriminate about your killing, since one key tenet of the theory is technological explosion. A hairy ape (or even a small rodent) today may be harmless but given millions of years, could be the most intelligent species in the galaxy. So taking this to its logical end would require you to kill all life (even bacteria) whenever it's detected.
- xp84 4y ago
  > why hasn't it happened yet? It's a big galaxy. It still probably takes a while to get around to "cleaning up" our sleepy part of the galaxy.
  - vecter 4y ago
    That seems to go against the points earlier about how to a very advanced civilization, the concept of resources is basically nonexistent (due to self-replicating AIs). And the fact that this galaxy has been around for 10 billion years. The way everyone in this comments section is talking, it seems like humans will be able to colonize (or sterilize) the entire Milky Way in a mere tens of millions of years. Clearly this is wrong, or else it would have already happened if it only would've taken 1% of the lifetime of the Milky Way to be colonized. That to me is indication that the Dark Forest is incorrect.
  - euroderf 4y ago
    If you're a third-rate civilization (as we are), there may be real benefit to being in a backwater spiral arm way off main shipping lanes.
- idiotsecant 4y ago
  It might just be that we haven't made any noise yet. All the EM radiation we have ever emitted is barely above CMB once you get out a few light years.

vecter 4y ago

> The only possible scenario where this doesn't hold water There are way too many assumptions baked into what you wrote to make that the only possible scenario where the Dark Forest is incorrect. You basically assume that the benefits of this outweigh the costs, which is entirely unfounded. You also assume that the technology for this is possible. Just saying "imagine something millions (heck I'll give you billions given how old the Milky Way is) of years more advanced than us" does not logically necessitate any of these assumptions to be true. And if the Dark Forest is so obviously true, why hasn't it happened yet? Why are we still alive? For a 10 billion year-old galaxy, you'd imagine there's at least one other sentient species out there capable of such technology (if such technology is even ever possible in this universe, which is not yet proven of course). If you believe in the Dark Forest, then you must be indiscriminate about your killing, since one key tenet of the theory is technological explosion. A hairy ape (or even a small rodent) today may be harmless but given millions of years, could be the most intelligent species in the galaxy. So taking this to its logical end would require you to kill all life (even bacteria) whenever it's detected.

xp84 4y ago
> why hasn't it happened yet? It's a big galaxy. It still probably takes a while to get around to "cleaning up" our sleepy part of the galaxy.
- vecter 4y ago
  That seems to go against the points earlier about how to a very advanced civilization, the concept of resources is basically nonexistent (due to self-replicating AIs). And the fact that this galaxy has been around for 10 billion years. The way everyone in this comments section is talking, it seems like humans will be able to colonize (or sterilize) the entire Milky Way in a mere tens of millions of years. Clearly this is wrong, or else it would have already happened if it only would've taken 1% of the lifetime of the Milky Way to be colonized. That to me is indication that the Dark Forest is incorrect.
- euroderf 4y ago
  If you're a third-rate civilization (as we are), there may be real benefit to being in a backwater spiral arm way off main shipping lanes.
idiotsecant 4y ago
It might just be that we haven't made any noise yet. All the EM radiation we have ever emitted is barely above CMB once you get out a few light years.