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The thing about explaining market movements is: you can't. And if you could, you would me making money over fist, not sharing that on some forum. edit: no, you
by namaria 4y ago
The thing about explaining market movements is: you can't. And if you could, you would me making money over fist, not sharing that on some forum.
edit: no, you can't... post hoc correlation analysis is an exercise in obscurity. If there was internal logic to the movements looking back, there would be a possibility of forecasting them.
- nickserv 4y agoYou can't predict, and coming up with an explanation during the fact is very problematic. But it's certainly possible to explain things after the fact.
- kuratkull 4y agoYou can in hindsight. What you said is meant to be about predicting market movements.
- twelve40 4y agoThat doesn't sound right. Nobody could predict that Covid (and reaction to it) would hit worldwide in March 2020. But looking back, you can try to unpack what effect it had on the markets. That's not going to help you predict the next one.
- namaria 4y agoSounding right, gut feeling, these are staples of bad reasoning. Markets have long term gains and random walks when you zoom in. That's it. Over the past years millions of things happened and hundreds of markets behaved as markets do. Cherry picking is easy, and wrong.