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Two pieces of evidence. 1) Places today have rolling brown outs at times in the year. Some power companies have seasons where they ask customers to limit their

by mfer 4y ago

Two pieces of evidence. 1) Places today have rolling brown outs at times in the year. Some power companies have seasons where they ask customers to limit their electricity use. Even peak load today can be a problem and the electrification of all the things means peak load will increase. 2) Articles that dig into this call out how the power grid will need to change to support the growth in consumption. When it's covered and experts speak they highlight the need for change to meet demand. Can you refute these?

ilyt 4y ago
Dunno, in most of those cases it seems to be direct effect of companies saving on infrastructure maintenance and then shifting the problems on customers. I'd imagine if a given line can sustain peak heat AC usage it would also just be fine with flatter profile of heating the property.
- mfer 4y ago
  > I'd imagine if a given line can sustain peak heat AC usage it would also just be fine with flatter profile of heating the property. We aren't talking about heat and AC. We also need to cover EVs, electric tools (like chainsaws), electric heat, electric stoves, and other things. There is a push to electrify all the things.
  - vel0city 4y ago
    > electric tools (like chainsaws) The amount of electricity shifting all gas powered tools like chainsaws and lawn mowers to electricity is less than a drop in the bucket compared to the other needs. Changing all my tools from gas to battery increased my electric bill in the peak growing season by like 2.5kWh/month, compared to a usual usage of ~2,000kWh/mo. Its also a pretty easy to time shift demand and doesn't need that 2.5kWh in an instant, that was over a whole month!
    - mfer 4y ago
      Now your nit picking on one thing on the list. EVs, home heat/AC, and stoves are all substantial (depending on how much you use the stove). When looked at on a macro scale there is an impact.
      - vel0city 4y ago
        > When looked at on a macro scale there is an impact. At a macro level, for the chainsaws and tools that's as if each household left a single 4W LED lightbulb turned on all the time. If that's enough to have to seriously re-think the grid we're already massively doomed. I better go and talk to the power company to get approval before I plug in another lamp at home! If you don't want someone nitpicking the equivalent of a 4W lightbulb on your list, don't include the equivalent of a 4W lightbulb on your list. It doesn't belong on a list comparing it with things like adding heat pumps, EVs, all electric home appliances like electric ranges and what not. All of those use literally hundreds of times more electricity, some during times which are hard to load shift or spread the load out over several hours. Even then, when well time-shifted and people aren't excessive in their load, adding an EV to a household's energy usage really doesn't rock the boat nearly as much as you'd think. The average car puts what, 14,000mi on it a year? Lots of EVs can get ~3.5mi/kWh, so that's 4,000kWh an average car would put on the grid over a year. So ~333kWh/mo. For a home using ~2,000kWh/mo before an EV, that's adding ~17% to their energy usage which can often easily be shifted and spread out to what is usually the lowest demand part of the day (late, late evening/early early morning). Its not like its doubling their usage to add an EV. A large chunk of the time when my EV charges the wholesale electricity rates in my area are negative. Often during the way off-peak hours the grid is nowhere near max utilization. True, this varies from location to location, but no grid is operating at like 95% generating and delivery capacity all the time. I do agree there will be some big changes that'll need to happen with electrification. Some places will have bigger changes than others, such as places that didn't even have AC before moving to heat pumps. But when it comes to places that already had to deal with a good amount of AC usage, switching from some other form of heating to heat pumps isn't really changing the peak usage that much. Its just keeping that high usage year round versus only in the summer. But honestly if everyone on my street added an EV to their home the power company would not need to make a single change. The grid is already planned to handle all these homes with their AC running in the peak summer days while running an electric stove and the rest of their home appliances on normal schedules during waking hours, having a 28A or 32A circuit running at the coolest hours of the day when everyone is sleeping (practically nobody is doing laundry at 3am while running the oven and stove) isn't going to upend the grid. I realize not everyone on the planet lives on my street, but my street isn't some fanciful magical place that exists only in dreams.
kurthr 4y ago
Yes, I can refute those. Those rolling brownouts happen in the summer when AC demand is high and the grid is barely capable of meeting peak demand. Vehicles do not need to charge at that time (when most people are at work or staying home) and could even provide some power to homes during that time. Most electric vehicles are charged at night (when rates are lower). Of course utilities would love to have people pay more maintenance, because they already have to do it and their profits are capped. But they have already built to peak demand and the only driver now for that peak is rising summer temperatures... because electric vehicles need not be charged then, and they are computer controlled so they know when to charge. In some localities residential solar is changing the exact time of peak load and often reducing daily peak load. The best argument is that electric vehicles require improvements to the utility writing is that electricity even more important so reliability of the network is more critical. But, well cell phones are pretty important.
- boringg 4y ago
  I think the difference is since you do this at scale it puts a lot more pressure on the grid. EV adoption is still quite low relative to the fleet. Yes heat load and AC are drivers for california grid and similar climate grids. I would wager that if the north east went electric heating and EV they would have significant problems in the winter. Grid reliability would be even more important given that transportation and home heating are tied to it. Those load profiles in aggregate would most certainly but pressure on the system both in transmission of electricity and production of energy.
  - kurthr 4y ago
    Average CA car drives ~12kmi/year (above average). That's less than 40miles/day and at ~250Wh/mi about 10kWh per electric vehicle day or 1kW for 10 hours for $1.50 at nighttime rates. Typical air conditioning load is 30-50kWh per day residential customer during the summer. There are ~2.5 registered vehicles per household (including commercial). Charge at night and you'll use less than AC in the day. Sure the north east will need more power and efficiency improvements while solar is less effective, but I expect them to have slower adoption as well. Residential solar added 5GW of typical spring day capacity while utilities added 7GW over the last 10 years. In another 10 years that will swamp daytime usage (except for winter) and utilities will be begging people to charge during the day.

by mfer 4y ago

ilyt 4y ago

Dunno, in most of those cases it seems to be direct effect of companies saving on infrastructure maintenance and then shifting the problems on customers. I'd imagine if a given line can sustain peak heat AC usage it would also just be fine with flatter profile of heating the property.

mfer 4y ago
> I'd imagine if a given line can sustain peak heat AC usage it would also just be fine with flatter profile of heating the property. We aren't talking about heat and AC. We also need to cover EVs, electric tools (like chainsaws), electric heat, electric stoves, and other things. There is a push to electrify all the things.
- vel0city 4y ago
  > electric tools (like chainsaws) The amount of electricity shifting all gas powered tools like chainsaws and lawn mowers to electricity is less than a drop in the bucket compared to the other needs. Changing all my tools from gas to battery increased my electric bill in the peak growing season by like 2.5kWh/month, compared to a usual usage of ~2,000kWh/mo. Its also a pretty easy to time shift demand and doesn't need that 2.5kWh in an instant, that was over a whole month!
  - mfer 4y ago
    Now your nit picking on one thing on the list. EVs, home heat/AC, and stoves are all substantial (depending on how much you use the stove). When looked at on a macro scale there is an impact.
    - vel0city 4y ago
      > When looked at on a macro scale there is an impact. At a macro level, for the chainsaws and tools that's as if each household left a single 4W LED lightbulb turned on all the time. If that's enough to have to seriously re-think the grid we're already massively doomed. I better go and talk to the power company to get approval before I plug in another lamp at home! If you don't want someone nitpicking the equivalent of a 4W lightbulb on your list, don't include the equivalent of a 4W lightbulb on your list. It doesn't belong on a list comparing it with things like adding heat pumps, EVs, all electric home appliances like electric ranges and what not. All of those use literally hundreds of times more electricity, some during times which are hard to load shift or spread the load out over several hours. Even then, when well time-shifted and people aren't excessive in their load, adding an EV to a household's energy usage really doesn't rock the boat nearly as much as you'd think. The average car puts what, 14,000mi on it a year? Lots of EVs can get ~3.5mi/kWh, so that's 4,000kWh an average car would put on the grid over a year. So ~333kWh/mo. For a home using ~2,000kWh/mo before an EV, that's adding ~17% to their energy usage which can often easily be shifted and spread out to what is usually the lowest demand part of the day (late, late evening/early early morning). Its not like its doubling their usage to add an EV. A large chunk of the time when my EV charges the wholesale electricity rates in my area are negative. Often during the way off-peak hours the grid is nowhere near max utilization. True, this varies from location to location, but no grid is operating at like 95% generating and delivery capacity all the time. I do agree there will be some big changes that'll need to happen with electrification. Some places will have bigger changes than others, such as places that didn't even have AC before moving to heat pumps. But when it comes to places that already had to deal with a good amount of AC usage, switching from some other form of heating to heat pumps isn't really changing the peak usage that much. Its just keeping that high usage year round versus only in the summer. But honestly if everyone on my street added an EV to their home the power company would not need to make a single change. The grid is already planned to handle all these homes with their AC running in the peak summer days while running an electric stove and the rest of their home appliances on normal schedules during waking hours, having a 28A or 32A circuit running at the coolest hours of the day when everyone is sleeping (practically nobody is doing laundry at 3am while running the oven and stove) isn't going to upend the grid. I realize not everyone on the planet lives on my street, but my street isn't some fanciful magical place that exists only in dreams.

kurthr 4y ago

Yes, I can refute those. Those rolling brownouts happen in the summer when AC demand is high and the grid is barely capable of meeting peak demand. Vehicles do not need to charge at that time (when most people are at work or staying home) and could even provide some power to homes during that time. Most electric vehicles are charged at night (when rates are lower). Of course utilities would love to have people pay more maintenance, because they already have to do it and their profits are capped. But they have already built to peak demand and the only driver now for that peak is rising summer temperatures... because electric vehicles need not be charged then, and they are computer controlled so they know when to charge. In some localities residential solar is changing the exact time of peak load and often reducing daily peak load. The best argument is that electric vehicles require improvements to the utility writing is that electricity even more important so reliability of the network is more critical. But, well cell phones are pretty important.

boringg 4y ago
I think the difference is since you do this at scale it puts a lot more pressure on the grid. EV adoption is still quite low relative to the fleet. Yes heat load and AC are drivers for california grid and similar climate grids. I would wager that if the north east went electric heating and EV they would have significant problems in the winter. Grid reliability would be even more important given that transportation and home heating are tied to it. Those load profiles in aggregate would most certainly but pressure on the system both in transmission of electricity and production of energy.
- kurthr 4y ago
  Average CA car drives ~12kmi/year (above average). That's less than 40miles/day and at ~250Wh/mi about 10kWh per electric vehicle day or 1kW for 10 hours for $1.50 at nighttime rates. Typical air conditioning load is 30-50kWh per day residential customer during the summer. There are ~2.5 registered vehicles per household (including commercial). Charge at night and you'll use less than AC in the day. Sure the north east will need more power and efficiency improvements while solar is less effective, but I expect them to have slower adoption as well. Residential solar added 5GW of typical spring day capacity while utilities added 7GW over the last 10 years. In another 10 years that will swamp daytime usage (except for winter) and utilities will be begging people to charge during the day.