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There is mooooore than enough spare grid capacity to deliver the electricity to electrify homes. We size the grid for peak capacity, not for average capacity,

There is mooooore than enough spare grid capacity to deliver the electricity to electrify homes. We size the grid for peak capacity, not for average capacity, which means that there's a very low overall usage amount. And the big drivers of additional electricity, heating and transportation, are easily shiftable to non-peak times. And as we have smarter devices, and more time of use billing, load shifting will be easy. That said, having lots more battery storage inside buildings may be a great way to help shift peaks, and be far cheaper than upgrading lots of connections everywhere.

boringg 4y ago
Not at all. Grid is not ready for this it need significant capital upgrades. Yes its designed for peak load but the load profile is changing significantly. And no you absolutely cant just load shift away heating and transportation of residential homes. That isn't cost free and we don't even have the projects in place to manage that yet.
- epistasis 4y ago
  Transportation is literally already battery, it is trivial to load shift charging, and in fact standard practice for anybody with electric transportation already! Heating is similarly trivial to load shift; heat or cool a little extra before the peak, stop during the peak, and then pick up afterwards. This goes for both space and water heating. Do you have any evidence about what upgrades are needed? I have a feeling that since you are so wrong about load shifting, that your intuitions about the grid may not be completely ok mark either. The grid upgrades I know about are for long distance transmission, not anything for distribution at the residential level, as we are discussing here.
  - mfer 4y ago
    Two pieces of evidence. 1) Places today have rolling brown outs at times in the year. Some power companies have seasons where they ask customers to limit their electricity use. Even peak load today can be a problem and the electrification of all the things means peak load will increase. 2) Articles that dig into this call out how the power grid will need to change to support the growth in consumption. When it's covered and experts speak they highlight the need for change to meet demand. Can you refute these?
    - ilyt 4y ago
      Dunno, in most of those cases it seems to be direct effect of companies saving on infrastructure maintenance and then shifting the problems on customers. I'd imagine if a given line can sustain peak heat AC usage it would also just be fine with flatter profile of heating the property.
      - mfer 4y ago
        > I'd imagine if a given line can sustain peak heat AC usage it would also just be fine with flatter profile of heating the property. We aren't talking about heat and AC. We also need to cover EVs, electric tools (like chainsaws), electric heat, electric stoves, and other things. There is a push to electrify all the things.
        vel0city 4y ago
        > electric tools (like chainsaws) The amount of electricity shifting all gas powered tools like chainsaws and lawn mowers to electricity is less than a drop in the bucket compared to the other needs. Changing all my tools from gas to battery increased my electric bill in the peak growing season by like 2.5kWh/month, compared to a usual usage of ~2,000kWh/mo. Its also a pretty easy to time shift demand and doesn't need that 2.5kWh in an instant, that was over a whole month!
        mfer 4y ago
        Now your nit picking on one thing on the list. EVs, home heat/AC, and stoves are all substantial (depending on how much you use the stove). When looked at on a macro scale there is an impact.
        vel0city 4y ago
        > When looked at on a macro scale there is an impact. At a macro level, for the chainsaws and tools that's as if each household left a single 4W LED lightbulb turned on all the time. If that's enough to have to seriously re-think the grid we're already massively doomed. I better go and talk to the power company to get approval before I plug in another lamp at home! If you don't want someone nitpicking the equivalent of a 4W lightbulb on your list, don't include the equivalent of a 4W lightbulb on your list. It doesn't belong on a list comparing it with things like adding heat pumps, EVs, all electric home appliances like electric ranges and what not. All of those use literally hundreds of times more electricity, some during times which are hard to load shift or spread the load out over several hours. Even then, when well time-shifted and people aren't excessive in their load, adding an EV to a household's energy usage really doesn't rock the boat nearly as much as you'd think. The average car puts what, 14,000mi on it a year? Lots of EVs can get ~3.5mi/kWh, so that's 4,000kWh an average car would put on the grid over a year. So ~333kWh/mo. For a home using ~2,000kWh/mo before an EV, that's adding ~17% to their energy usage which can often easily be shifted and spread out to what is usually the lowest demand part of the day (late, late evening/early early morning). Its not like its doubling their usage to add an EV. A large chunk of the time when my EV charges the wholesale electricity rates in my area are negative. Often during the way off-peak hours the grid is nowhere near max utilization. True, this varies from location to location, but no grid is operating at like 95% generating and delivery capacity all the time. I do agree there will be some big changes that'll need to happen with electrification. Some places will have bigger changes than others, such as places that didn't even have AC before moving to heat pumps. But when it comes to places that already had to deal with a good amount of AC usage, switching from some other form of heating to heat pumps isn't really changing the peak usage that much. Its just keeping that high usage year round versus only in the summer. But honestly if everyone on my street added an EV to their home the power company would not need to make a single change. The grid is already planned to handle all these homes with their AC running in the peak summer days while running an electric stove and the rest of their home appliances on normal schedules during waking hours, having a 28A or 32A circuit running at the coolest hours of the day when everyone is sleeping (practically nobody is doing laundry at 3am while running the oven and stove) isn't going to upend the grid. I realize not everyone on the planet lives on my street, but my street isn't some fanciful magical place that exists only in dreams.
  - boringg 4y ago
    What are you talking about? Transportation is not anywhere near electric at this point. Once you aggregate all that demand for all vehicles in california charging its significant amount of power and the cost of Lion batteries to manage that “load shifting” is excessive if put behind the meter. You have grossly oversimplified of the problem set with little regard for how people, utilities, policy development and the real world actually work.
- fnordpiglet 4y ago
  My understanding is the grid in general is capable but the last mile transformer networks are not.
- eppp 4y ago
  I don't know where you live but in my state (TN) most of the residential heating is electric already in my area. If the gas was turned off, the local coop wouldn't have any issues whatsoever meeting the demand.
  - boringg 4y ago
    Im predominantly talking states with cold weather and natural gas heating.
treeman79 4y ago
A recent cold snap left East coast with rolling black outs across a number of states. This is not California where you put on a warm jacket. You heat the home, find shelter somewhere or die. I kept getting notes to hold off on using appliances for a few days. Can imagine that if our areas heat was electric that would have collapsed the grid.
- flavius29663 4y ago
  Was that because of insufficient grid capacity, or not generating enough juice for everyone?
  - digitalsushi 4y ago
    I live in NH and my town was part of it ... a 70mph single gust of wind at the boundary of a storm came through and knocked down around 60 or so trees in our 4,000 person community. Many, many pathways were simultaneously interrupted. It is incredible that the power company got power restored in a 36 hour window, when half of it was Christmas Eve.
    - flavius29663 4y ago
      "rolling blackout" is a very specific term used when grids are overloaded (usually when not enough generation is happening), which means that the operator is intentionally cutting power to some areas to save on energy. The areas keep changing (such that each area is out of power for just a few hours at a time), hence the name "rolling". The OP said that the eastern storm is proof the grid is not resilient enough because of rolling blackouts, which I find hard to believe without some more sources/reasoning.
      - treeman79 4y ago
        I don’t think you would accept any proof. As your own definition is good reasoning on why grid is over whelmed.
mfer 4y ago
> There is mooooore than enough spare grid capacity to deliver the electricity to electrify homes. I'm going to disagree with this for three reasons. 1) We have places that have brown outs today. The grid isn't able to deliver. In other areas people have setups where power companies can cut (for periods of time) power to their air conditioner and that is used. There have been other areas where cables have run into issues with so much electricity going over it. The grid today runs into problems with the existing demands on it. 2) I've talked with people in some locales that only have 60A drops to their home. The local home and their local grid needs to be updated before everything can go electric. 3) When you read articles that say the grid can handle it they cover how the grid needs to be updated to handle all the things being electrified. So, they say the grid we have today can't cover it. Here's an example [1]. If it could handle it now there wouldn't be a need to it to be updated. [1] https://cars.usnews.com/cars-trucks/features/can-the-nations-electrical-grid-support-electric-cars https://cars.usnews.com/cars-trucks/features/can-the-nations...
- bluGill 4y ago
  You are confusing the grid with generation capacity. They are different. Generation capacity is where we have more need. For the most part the wires have enough capacity - though even then there are places that need upgrades.
  - mfer 4y ago
    I have a few reasons to believe the wires we have today aren't enough 1) I was recently talking with someone who lives in a community where homes have 60A service. The homes and last mile in places like that can't handle the draw people will need to electrify everything. 60A isn't enough. 2) Where I live there has been work to upgrade the wiring because it's not enough. It's not done yet and other communities I've been to have not been upgraded, yet. There are still areas where the current traveling through the lines today causes enough sag that I wait for something to break when things are at their peak. 3) Publications and communications from some power companies cover the need to upgrade the grid. Are they lying?
    - 4y ago
ilyt 4y ago
>We size the grid for peak capacity, not for average capacity, which means that there's a very low overall usage amount. And the big drivers of additional electricity, heating and transportation, are easily shiftable to non-peak times. How's heating "shifttable" ? None of the usual systems to heat house does it (inertia is not the same)
- epistasis 4y ago
  One of the biggest current methods of "demand response" is shifting HVAC loads from large commercial buildings: pre-heating or pre-cooling by a few degrees, and then lessening the HVAC activity during the peak time. This can be done at the residential level with devices like a Nest thermostat, and be overridable by the customer if they don't want to save the $0.25 or whatever. Water heating is even easier to implement this way, but requires smarter water heaters.
atoav 4y ago
> There is mooooore than enough spare grid capacity to deliver the electricity to electrify homes. I know some electrical engineers who work in the field who are of the polar opposite opinion. I am trying to paraphrase: 1. the wires we have deployed will not be able to carry the currents needed 2. the deployed transformers are not beefy enough for the expected demand 3. the existing house wirings are not beefy enough for the expected demand 4. there are not enough people with the propper training in the field to change this all as quickly as is needed This is not my judgement, but what "word on the street" is with electrical engineers who do nothing else than put copper under the earth 24/7

boringg 4y ago

Not at all. Grid is not ready for this it need significant capital upgrades. Yes its designed for peak load but the load profile is changing significantly. And no you absolutely cant just load shift away heating and transportation of residential homes. That isn't cost free and we don't even have the projects in place to manage that yet.

epistasis 4y ago
Transportation is literally already battery, it is trivial to load shift charging, and in fact standard practice for anybody with electric transportation already! Heating is similarly trivial to load shift; heat or cool a little extra before the peak, stop during the peak, and then pick up afterwards. This goes for both space and water heating. Do you have any evidence about what upgrades are needed? I have a feeling that since you are so wrong about load shifting, that your intuitions about the grid may not be completely ok mark either. The grid upgrades I know about are for long distance transmission, not anything for distribution at the residential level, as we are discussing here.
- mfer 4y ago
  Two pieces of evidence. 1) Places today have rolling brown outs at times in the year. Some power companies have seasons where they ask customers to limit their electricity use. Even peak load today can be a problem and the electrification of all the things means peak load will increase. 2) Articles that dig into this call out how the power grid will need to change to support the growth in consumption. When it's covered and experts speak they highlight the need for change to meet demand. Can you refute these?
  - ilyt 4y ago
    Dunno, in most of those cases it seems to be direct effect of companies saving on infrastructure maintenance and then shifting the problems on customers. I'd imagine if a given line can sustain peak heat AC usage it would also just be fine with flatter profile of heating the property.
    - mfer 4y ago
      > I'd imagine if a given line can sustain peak heat AC usage it would also just be fine with flatter profile of heating the property. We aren't talking about heat and AC. We also need to cover EVs, electric tools (like chainsaws), electric heat, electric stoves, and other things. There is a push to electrify all the things.
      - vel0city 4y ago
        > electric tools (like chainsaws) The amount of electricity shifting all gas powered tools like chainsaws and lawn mowers to electricity is less than a drop in the bucket compared to the other needs. Changing all my tools from gas to battery increased my electric bill in the peak growing season by like 2.5kWh/month, compared to a usual usage of ~2,000kWh/mo. Its also a pretty easy to time shift demand and doesn't need that 2.5kWh in an instant, that was over a whole month!
        mfer 4y ago
        Now your nit picking on one thing on the list. EVs, home heat/AC, and stoves are all substantial (depending on how much you use the stove). When looked at on a macro scale there is an impact.
        vel0city 4y ago
        > When looked at on a macro scale there is an impact. At a macro level, for the chainsaws and tools that's as if each household left a single 4W LED lightbulb turned on all the time. If that's enough to have to seriously re-think the grid we're already massively doomed. I better go and talk to the power company to get approval before I plug in another lamp at home! If you don't want someone nitpicking the equivalent of a 4W lightbulb on your list, don't include the equivalent of a 4W lightbulb on your list. It doesn't belong on a list comparing it with things like adding heat pumps, EVs, all electric home appliances like electric ranges and what not. All of those use literally hundreds of times more electricity, some during times which are hard to load shift or spread the load out over several hours. Even then, when well time-shifted and people aren't excessive in their load, adding an EV to a household's energy usage really doesn't rock the boat nearly as much as you'd think. The average car puts what, 14,000mi on it a year? Lots of EVs can get ~3.5mi/kWh, so that's 4,000kWh an average car would put on the grid over a year. So ~333kWh/mo. For a home using ~2,000kWh/mo before an EV, that's adding ~17% to their energy usage which can often easily be shifted and spread out to what is usually the lowest demand part of the day (late, late evening/early early morning). Its not like its doubling their usage to add an EV. A large chunk of the time when my EV charges the wholesale electricity rates in my area are negative. Often during the way off-peak hours the grid is nowhere near max utilization. True, this varies from location to location, but no grid is operating at like 95% generating and delivery capacity all the time. I do agree there will be some big changes that'll need to happen with electrification. Some places will have bigger changes than others, such as places that didn't even have AC before moving to heat pumps. But when it comes to places that already had to deal with a good amount of AC usage, switching from some other form of heating to heat pumps isn't really changing the peak usage that much. Its just keeping that high usage year round versus only in the summer. But honestly if everyone on my street added an EV to their home the power company would not need to make a single change. The grid is already planned to handle all these homes with their AC running in the peak summer days while running an electric stove and the rest of their home appliances on normal schedules during waking hours, having a 28A or 32A circuit running at the coolest hours of the day when everyone is sleeping (practically nobody is doing laundry at 3am while running the oven and stove) isn't going to upend the grid. I realize not everyone on the planet lives on my street, but my street isn't some fanciful magical place that exists only in dreams.
- boringg 4y ago
  What are you talking about? Transportation is not anywhere near electric at this point. Once you aggregate all that demand for all vehicles in california charging its significant amount of power and the cost of Lion batteries to manage that “load shifting” is excessive if put behind the meter. You have grossly oversimplified of the problem set with little regard for how people, utilities, policy development and the real world actually work.
fnordpiglet 4y ago
My understanding is the grid in general is capable but the last mile transformer networks are not.
eppp 4y ago
I don't know where you live but in my state (TN) most of the residential heating is electric already in my area. If the gas was turned off, the local coop wouldn't have any issues whatsoever meeting the demand.
- boringg 4y ago
  Im predominantly talking states with cold weather and natural gas heating.

treeman79 4y ago

A recent cold snap left East coast with rolling black outs across a number of states. This is not California where you put on a warm jacket. You heat the home, find shelter somewhere or die. I kept getting notes to hold off on using appliances for a few days. Can imagine that if our areas heat was electric that would have collapsed the grid.

flavius29663 4y ago
Was that because of insufficient grid capacity, or not generating enough juice for everyone?
- digitalsushi 4y ago
  I live in NH and my town was part of it ... a 70mph single gust of wind at the boundary of a storm came through and knocked down around 60 or so trees in our 4,000 person community. Many, many pathways were simultaneously interrupted. It is incredible that the power company got power restored in a 36 hour window, when half of it was Christmas Eve.
  - flavius29663 4y ago
    "rolling blackout" is a very specific term used when grids are overloaded (usually when not enough generation is happening), which means that the operator is intentionally cutting power to some areas to save on energy. The areas keep changing (such that each area is out of power for just a few hours at a time), hence the name "rolling". The OP said that the eastern storm is proof the grid is not resilient enough because of rolling blackouts, which I find hard to believe without some more sources/reasoning.
    - treeman79 4y ago
      I don’t think you would accept any proof. As your own definition is good reasoning on why grid is over whelmed.

mfer 4y ago

> There is mooooore than enough spare grid capacity to deliver the electricity to electrify homes. I'm going to disagree with this for three reasons. 1) We have places that have brown outs today. The grid isn't able to deliver. In other areas people have setups where power companies can cut (for periods of time) power to their air conditioner and that is used. There have been other areas where cables have run into issues with so much electricity going over it. The grid today runs into problems with the existing demands on it. 2) I've talked with people in some locales that only have 60A drops to their home. The local home and their local grid needs to be updated before everything can go electric. 3) When you read articles that say the grid can handle it they cover how the grid needs to be updated to handle all the things being electrified. So, they say the grid we have today can't cover it. Here's an example [1]. If it could handle it now there wouldn't be a need to it to be updated. [1] https://cars.usnews.com/cars-trucks/features/can-the-nations-electrical-grid-support-electric-cars https://cars.usnews.com/cars-trucks/features/can-the-nations...

bluGill 4y ago
You are confusing the grid with generation capacity. They are different. Generation capacity is where we have more need. For the most part the wires have enough capacity - though even then there are places that need upgrades.
- mfer 4y ago
  I have a few reasons to believe the wires we have today aren't enough 1) I was recently talking with someone who lives in a community where homes have 60A service. The homes and last mile in places like that can't handle the draw people will need to electrify everything. 60A isn't enough. 2) Where I live there has been work to upgrade the wiring because it's not enough. It's not done yet and other communities I've been to have not been upgraded, yet. There are still areas where the current traveling through the lines today causes enough sag that I wait for something to break when things are at their peak. 3) Publications and communications from some power companies cover the need to upgrade the grid. Are they lying?
  - 4y ago

ilyt 4y ago

>We size the grid for peak capacity, not for average capacity, which means that there's a very low overall usage amount. And the big drivers of additional electricity, heating and transportation, are easily shiftable to non-peak times. How's heating "shifttable" ? None of the usual systems to heat house does it (inertia is not the same)

epistasis 4y ago
One of the biggest current methods of "demand response" is shifting HVAC loads from large commercial buildings: pre-heating or pre-cooling by a few degrees, and then lessening the HVAC activity during the peak time. This can be done at the residential level with devices like a Nest thermostat, and be overridable by the customer if they don't want to save the $0.25 or whatever. Water heating is even easier to implement this way, but requires smarter water heaters.

atoav 4y ago

> There is mooooore than enough spare grid capacity to deliver the electricity to electrify homes. I know some electrical engineers who work in the field who are of the polar opposite opinion. I am trying to paraphrase: 1. the wires we have deployed will not be able to carry the currents needed 2. the deployed transformers are not beefy enough for the expected demand 3. the existing house wirings are not beefy enough for the expected demand 4. there are not enough people with the propper training in the field to change this all as quickly as is needed This is not my judgement, but what "word on the street" is with electrical engineers who do nothing else than put copper under the earth 24/7