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Not completely relevant to your comment, but I personally I think the word "bubble" is a really bad label for what happened during 2020-2021 and redirects blame
by kypro 4y ago
Not completely relevant to your comment, but I personally I think the word "bubble" is a really bad label for what happened during 2020-2021 and redirects blame away from those responsible.
It assumes there was some irresponsible multi-asset speculative boom in various markets including, government bonds, housing (gloally), crypto and stock valuations all conveniently around the same time in late 2020/ early 2021 when central bankers were doing trillions of QE and governments were injecting similar amounts of fiscal stimulus into the economy, fuelling a general demand boom and pushing the risk-free rate to near-zero. And top on of this central bankers were completely wrong / lying about the path of inflation and rate hikes in the coming years miss leading investors and businesses about the environment they would be operating in going forward.
I guess my point is that if tech companies "over hired" they only did so because the risk-free rate being near-zero devalues profits and incentivise growth. And meanwhile they had a massive demand boom to service caused by the insane fiscal stimulus. They were arguably just doing what they had to given the macro environment governments and central bankers created.
The "bubble" might as well have been government policy. Investors / businesses were just responding as you would expect given the economic conditions.
Were we to drop the risk-free rate to zero and pump $2T in the economy again this year exactly the same thing would happen again.