3 ms·

I must have seen it ~20 years ago on FOX I think. It was certainly a “made for TV” / theatrical way of making a point. But the point stuck with me as it was pr

by awb 4y ago

I must have seen it ~20 years ago on FOX I think. It was certainly a “made for TV” / theatrical way of making a point. But the point stuck with me as it was pretty diametrically opposed to the other Apprentice show which rewarded people for following instructions. Looks like it was Victoria Falls: https://youtu.be/BrA__e6s1kg https://youtu.be/BrA__e6s1kg Clip starts at 4:38 > you know you're on a TV show where the utmost care is taken by a whole team of professionals I think that’s kind of the point though, is if you’re saying you’re capable of being President of Virgin (the prize I believe), then there is little to no safety net. You are the professional in charge responsible for everyone else’s safety. If you just assume that Branson’s prepared and thought of everything already then you’re not adding the value he’s looking for. He wants people that are skeptical of every detail and proposition (even his). But granted it’s not the actual way he’d vet for this quality. It was spiced up for TV. I just found it impactful that he valued that skeptic quality in his team.

FeepingCreature 4y ago
> I think that’s kind of the point though, is if you’re saying you’re capable of being President of Virgin (the prize I believe), then there is little to no safety net. You are the professional in charge responsible for everyone else’s safety. But you're not, in that situation. That's sort of the point. This isn't hiring for prudence, this is hiring for ability to guess Branson's gotcha.
- awb 4y ago
  Well the contestant believed they were in charge of the drop. Common sense tells you that a 350’ drop will kill you, but they assumed it was safe because Branson was there. So, he wants people who will view a scenario objectively and not be biased by his presence or opinions. As a control it would have been interesting to have half the contestants in a capsule by themselves and see how many were willing to drop without him there. I bet many would have still pressed the button. Some people are blinded by winning and take huge, inappropriate risks to try to win. It’s a skill to be able to not play the game when the risks are too high. Or, it could have just been a test to see who’s brave enough to call bullshit when things get absurd.
  - prepend 4y ago
    Common sense tells me that there’s no way a tv show and a billionaire would let me kill myself and others. So that would make me think that there’s some characteristic of the capsule or the falls that would make the drop survivable. This text seems stupid for weeding out a specific type of contestant. There’s lots of scenarios of people who would or would not press the button. They may as well flip a coin. My biggest complaint is that it rewards hesitation or inability to decide and isn’t really a forcing function.
    - awb 4y ago
      > Common sense tells me that there’s no way a tv show and a billionaire would let me kill myself and others. So that would make me think that there’s some characteristic of the capsule or the falls that would make the drop survivable. Right, so you have to weigh this faith in the system (game shows are safe & billionaires won’t do anything extremely risky) against the facts of nature and a suspicious story being told to you. Probably 99.99% of people would push the button. In a business setting if Branson approved a deal, and the due diligence (safety team) approved a deal, you could be forgiven for assuming it’s a smart deal. But when it comes to decisions you absolutely have to get right he wants people who ignore the advice of others and make their own independent assessment based on facts. When you assume another team has done their job and they assume you’ve done yours you can get into a circular logic where no one has done their job and most people march forward (see Madoff documentary). In retrospect the risks were obvious and the story unbelievable. He wants that rare person who calls bullshit (Harry Markopolos) when all the other signals are saying “it’s safe”. Many of the Madoff victims said the same thing: “It’s Madoff”, “It’s registered with the SEC”. They didn’t think a successful billionaire would do something so dumb that it would cost him and those around him everything. Yes, you can forgive the victims for thinking the system should have protected them and you can still applaud Markopolos for not buying the bullshit and refusing to push the button. Yes, Branson’s stunt is an imperfect/theatrical version of this and the challenge is biased in favor of people who are indecisive or afraid of heights. Almost all TV is sensationalized to appeal to an audience that wouldn’t be riveted by contestants pouring over a series of hedge fund returns trying to determine if they’re safe or fraudulent investments. It’s more the symbolism that’s important.
hahajk 4y ago
Thanks for the clip, it really is pretty dumb. They just had a challenge where they jumped/fell off the cliff with a bungee cord as a team-building exercise. It looks like they were expected to say "yes" to that but say "no" to falling off in what was described as a "high-tech barrel." Maybe there were cues or other information not shown in the clip, but I have no idea how any contestant was supposed to assess the risk of either of those activities.
- awb 4y ago
  I don’t think it’s that dumb. Exhibit A: “These steady, guaranteed, market beating returns that have no risk are safe because Madoff wouldn’t risk life in prison running a fraud. Plus, it’s registered with the SEC” is roughly equivalent to: “This 350’ drop and metal capsule with no parachute are safe because Branson is here. Plus, I’m on a TV show so I’m sure they have a safety crew.” These examples show just how much we trust others and how easily we can be persuaded into taking huge, unnecessary risk when a prize is dangled in front of us. There are people who refused to invest in Madoff while their friends or competitors were getting rich. And there are people who would refuse to press that button. They’re incredibly rare, but that’s what you’re looking for when you want someone making billion dollar decisions that affect tons of jobs/livelihoods. If you bet alongside Branson 100% of the time, you’d do really well in life. But he wouldn’t gain any value. But to him, you are a tool that helps him get better. You playing the odds and agreeing with him doesn’t help him. You calling bullshit the 0.01% of the time when he’s dead wrong is what he needs. You’re not his next billion dollar idea. You’re his bankruptcy / financial death safety net. He doesn’t want someone making a prisoner’s dilemma (we’ll sink or swim together) / “no one got fired for choosing IBM” (no one got fired for agreeing with Branson) kind of decision. He wants you to say “Knowing what I know, I can’t go along with this.” So it’s a very theatrical way of seeing if you have the courage to save him from himself, in a way that makes for a good 10 second TV teaser for non-business folks.

by awb 4y ago

FeepingCreature 4y ago

> I think that’s kind of the point though, is if you’re saying you’re capable of being President of Virgin (the prize I believe), then there is little to no safety net. You are the professional in charge responsible for everyone else’s safety. But you're not, in that situation. That's sort of the point. This isn't hiring for prudence, this is hiring for ability to guess Branson's gotcha.

awb 4y ago
Well the contestant believed they were in charge of the drop. Common sense tells you that a 350’ drop will kill you, but they assumed it was safe because Branson was there. So, he wants people who will view a scenario objectively and not be biased by his presence or opinions. As a control it would have been interesting to have half the contestants in a capsule by themselves and see how many were willing to drop without him there. I bet many would have still pressed the button. Some people are blinded by winning and take huge, inappropriate risks to try to win. It’s a skill to be able to not play the game when the risks are too high. Or, it could have just been a test to see who’s brave enough to call bullshit when things get absurd.
- prepend 4y ago
  Common sense tells me that there’s no way a tv show and a billionaire would let me kill myself and others. So that would make me think that there’s some characteristic of the capsule or the falls that would make the drop survivable. This text seems stupid for weeding out a specific type of contestant. There’s lots of scenarios of people who would or would not press the button. They may as well flip a coin. My biggest complaint is that it rewards hesitation or inability to decide and isn’t really a forcing function.
  - awb 4y ago
    > Common sense tells me that there’s no way a tv show and a billionaire would let me kill myself and others. So that would make me think that there’s some characteristic of the capsule or the falls that would make the drop survivable. Right, so you have to weigh this faith in the system (game shows are safe & billionaires won’t do anything extremely risky) against the facts of nature and a suspicious story being told to you. Probably 99.99% of people would push the button. In a business setting if Branson approved a deal, and the due diligence (safety team) approved a deal, you could be forgiven for assuming it’s a smart deal. But when it comes to decisions you absolutely have to get right he wants people who ignore the advice of others and make their own independent assessment based on facts. When you assume another team has done their job and they assume you’ve done yours you can get into a circular logic where no one has done their job and most people march forward (see Madoff documentary). In retrospect the risks were obvious and the story unbelievable. He wants that rare person who calls bullshit (Harry Markopolos) when all the other signals are saying “it’s safe”. Many of the Madoff victims said the same thing: “It’s Madoff”, “It’s registered with the SEC”. They didn’t think a successful billionaire would do something so dumb that it would cost him and those around him everything. Yes, you can forgive the victims for thinking the system should have protected them and you can still applaud Markopolos for not buying the bullshit and refusing to push the button. Yes, Branson’s stunt is an imperfect/theatrical version of this and the challenge is biased in favor of people who are indecisive or afraid of heights. Almost all TV is sensationalized to appeal to an audience that wouldn’t be riveted by contestants pouring over a series of hedge fund returns trying to determine if they’re safe or fraudulent investments. It’s more the symbolism that’s important.

hahajk 4y ago

Thanks for the clip, it really is pretty dumb. They just had a challenge where they jumped/fell off the cliff with a bungee cord as a team-building exercise. It looks like they were expected to say "yes" to that but say "no" to falling off in what was described as a "high-tech barrel." Maybe there were cues or other information not shown in the clip, but I have no idea how any contestant was supposed to assess the risk of either of those activities.

awb 4y ago
I don’t think it’s that dumb. Exhibit A: “These steady, guaranteed, market beating returns that have no risk are safe because Madoff wouldn’t risk life in prison running a fraud. Plus, it’s registered with the SEC” is roughly equivalent to: “This 350’ drop and metal capsule with no parachute are safe because Branson is here. Plus, I’m on a TV show so I’m sure they have a safety crew.” These examples show just how much we trust others and how easily we can be persuaded into taking huge, unnecessary risk when a prize is dangled in front of us. There are people who refused to invest in Madoff while their friends or competitors were getting rich. And there are people who would refuse to press that button. They’re incredibly rare, but that’s what you’re looking for when you want someone making billion dollar decisions that affect tons of jobs/livelihoods. If you bet alongside Branson 100% of the time, you’d do really well in life. But he wouldn’t gain any value. But to him, you are a tool that helps him get better. You playing the odds and agreeing with him doesn’t help him. You calling bullshit the 0.01% of the time when he’s dead wrong is what he needs. You’re not his next billion dollar idea. You’re his bankruptcy / financial death safety net. He doesn’t want someone making a prisoner’s dilemma (we’ll sink or swim together) / “no one got fired for choosing IBM” (no one got fired for agreeing with Branson) kind of decision. He wants you to say “Knowing what I know, I can’t go along with this.” So it’s a very theatrical way of seeing if you have the courage to save him from himself, in a way that makes for a good 10 second TV teaser for non-business folks.