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Given Tesla's now well-documented history of lying about their cars' safety,[0-6] it's kind of alarming to see, what's basically an ad directly from a brand, be

by culi 4y ago

Given Tesla's now well-documented history of lying about their cars' safety,[0-6] it's kind of alarming to see, what's basically an ad directly from a brand, being posted to the front page of HN [0] https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2019/08/07/federal-safety-regulators-scolded-elon-musk-over-misleading-statements-tesla-safety/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2019/08/07/federal... [1] https://www.autobison.com/2020/03/has-tesla-been-lying-about-its-safety-record/ https://www.autobison.com/2020/03/has-tesla-been-lying-about... [2] https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/15/data-shows-tesla-accounts-for-most-reported-driver-assist-crashes-but-officials-warn-report-lacks-context.html https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/15/data-shows-tesla-accounts-fo... [3] https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/08/technology/tesla-autopilot-safety-data.html https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/08/technology/tesla-autopilo... [4] https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2022-12-27/tesla-stopped-reporting-autopilot-safety-statistics-online https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2022-12-27/tesla-stop... [5] https://phys.org/news/2018-05-fact-tesla-safety.html https://phys.org/news/2018-05-fact-tesla-safety.html [6] https://securityboulevard.com/2022/11/its-official-tesla-has-reduced-driver-safety/ https://securityboulevard.com/2022/11/its-official-tesla-has...

femiagbabiaka 4y ago
True, although it is indicative of some level of community sentiment and will certainly have a comment section full of rebuttals as your own. Good advantage of a mostly free speech platform.
ajross 4y ago
Almost as upsetting as it is to see a Gish gallop link list rise to the top of that topic. Needless to say not one of those corroborates "history of lying about their cars' safety", and you surely know that. But you'll challenge us all to figure it out on our own anyway? It's absolutely amazing that we have to go through this every time someone gets video of a Tesla event. There are millions of these cars on the road now, surely the fact that this happens only monthly sits as evidence against your position, no? Edit: FWIW: my money is on this story being quietly retracted at some point anyway. FSD doesn't behave like that. It just doesn't. Almost certainly the driver got confused, panicked, or otherwise overrode the automation and then blamed it when talking to police. The police report is almost silent on the subject: https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/23569059-9335-2022-02256-redacted https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/23569059-9335-2022-0... This entire kerfuffle is based on this one sentence: "P-1 stated V-1 was in Full Self Driving mode at the time of the crash, I am unable to verify if V-1’s Full 24 Self-Driving Capability was active at the time of the crash."
- culi 4y ago
  the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, New York Times, and even published research[0] have all been calling Elon Musk out for years now, yet his fans will still believe him despite them withholding data [0] https://engrxiv.org/preprint/view/1973/3986 https://engrxiv.org/preprint/view/1973/3986
  - ajross 4y ago
    This is the gallop part. I called you out on your first set of links (one of which legitimately hoodwinked a commenter here!) and instead of defending those arguments you're pivoting to another. I won't engage here either, except to point out that this isn't "published research" (it literally tells you that on the first page). The clear and inarguable truth is that the Tesla fleet is pushing three million cars now. They're safe. Are they safest? safer? less safe? There's space for argument. But the kind of absolutist story you're spinning just doesn't hold. If these cars were actually causing accidents at even a moderately higher rate, we'd quite clearly know about it. And they aren't.
    - culi 4y ago
      This study is from one of the original links I shared... You accused me of gish gallopping. I've since slowed down and focused on specific events. See my other comments about the battery swapping scam for example. Please provide some actual data proving these cars are safer than average. Tesla certainly hasn't been able to. And research, like the one I just linked which you refused to acknowledge, definitely does not back up Elon's claims
      - ajross 4y ago
        > Please provide some actual data proving these cars are safer than average. Tesla certainly hasn't been able to. But... they have. That's exactly the link we're discussing. You don't want that to be true, so you're digging around trying to pretend via a flood of bad evidence that they're somehow "lying" in that data. But... what if they aren't? Again, three million cars are an awfully big signal to try to spin. Isn't the Occam's Razor interpretation (also jives with my personal experience with the product, FWIW) that... they're safe?
oneoff786 4y ago
I read through all these links. They’re not great aside from the worker safety one. The first one states that Tesla is being misleading for claiming that it’s cars scores better for safety but not mentioning that the weight classes affect the scores. The original claim is still true though. Most of the others deal with the claim that the cars accidents per mile ratings are lower because they’re highway miles or because they’re driven by rich people. But… they’re still low. You can argue at best that there is no rigorous proof that Tesla cars are safer than other cars and that these are cherry picked stats for marketing. But there’s no compelling evidence that they’re more dangerous. Calling them lies is disingenuous. Regardless of one’s opinion of musk.
- FireBeyond 4y ago
  [Deleted for my poor reading comprehension].
  - oneoff786 4y ago
    Those are work related injuries, not car accidents. I already agreed with that point.
  - ajross 4y ago
    Good grief. Those are workplace accidents. In the factory. Edit: but you get the meta point, right? Upstream comment threw a ton of links at you along with an intended (and deliberately incorrect) interpretation knowing that you wouldn't read them carefully. That's why that kind of argumentation is so toxic.
- culi 4y ago
  Musk has repeatedly been called out by regulators for his misinformation. Some claims, like the safety of autopilot have been directly debunked by research. This article has a good literature review if you're interested: [0] https://engrxiv.org/preprint/view/1973/3986 https://engrxiv.org/preprint/view/1973/3986 > In independent research, Templeton (2020)compared Tesla’s stated crash rates with Autopilot enabled and not enabled by attempting to control for increased use of Autopilot on relatively safer freeways. To compare human-driven crash rates of freeways and non-freeways, Templeton used fatality rates, which may overestimate crash rates on freeways as higher speeds increase crash severity according to a fourth power law (Evans, 1994). When controlling for road type, the crash rate benefits of Autopilot narrowed significantly. Templeton was unable to fully assess their comparison of Autopilot crash rates with national estimates due to their different definitions of crashes. > Goodall (2021)investigated struck-from-behind crashes of automated vehicles using age-weighted crash rates from SHRP 2 NDS database as a baseline. Automated vehicles were struck from behind at five times the rate of human-driven vehicles, although much of the difference could be attributed to higher rates of urban driving experienced in automated vehicle testing. I'm also not sure what percent of level 2 ADAS vehicles are Tesla vs other brands but they're by far the most common vehicles with driver-assist involved: [1] https://www.theverge.com/2022/6/15/23168088/nhtsa-adas-self-driving-crash-data-tesla https://www.theverge.com/2022/6/15/23168088/nhtsa-adas-self-... Google's Waymo was lightyears ahead of Tesla. The reason they didn't go to market was that they knew it wasn't really ready. Elon Musk has lied (as in he knew the truth and lied) about their driver assistant technology's safety and capabilities and has been sued for it[2]. There's no other way to sugarcoat it [2] https://www.theverge.com/2022/9/14/23353787/elon-musk-tesla-lawsuit-autopilot-full-self-driving-promises https://www.theverge.com/2022/9/14/23353787/elon-musk-tesla-...

by culi 4y ago

femiagbabiaka 4y ago

True, although it is indicative of some level of community sentiment and will certainly have a comment section full of rebuttals as your own. Good advantage of a mostly free speech platform.

ajross 4y ago

Almost as upsetting as it is to see a Gish gallop link list rise to the top of that topic. Needless to say not one of those corroborates "history of lying about their cars' safety", and you surely know that. But you'll challenge us all to figure it out on our own anyway? It's absolutely amazing that we have to go through this every time someone gets video of a Tesla event. There are millions of these cars on the road now, surely the fact that this happens only monthly sits as evidence against your position, no? Edit: FWIW: my money is on this story being quietly retracted at some point anyway. FSD doesn't behave like that. It just doesn't. Almost certainly the driver got confused, panicked, or otherwise overrode the automation and then blamed it when talking to police. The police report is almost silent on the subject: https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/23569059-9335-2022-02256-redacted https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/23569059-9335-2022-0... This entire kerfuffle is based on this one sentence: "P-1 stated V-1 was in Full Self Driving mode at the time of the crash, I am unable to verify if V-1’s Full 24 Self-Driving Capability was active at the time of the crash."

culi 4y ago
the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, New York Times, and even published research[0] have all been calling Elon Musk out for years now, yet his fans will still believe him despite them withholding data [0] https://engrxiv.org/preprint/view/1973/3986 https://engrxiv.org/preprint/view/1973/3986
- ajross 4y ago
  This is the gallop part. I called you out on your first set of links (one of which legitimately hoodwinked a commenter here!) and instead of defending those arguments you're pivoting to another. I won't engage here either, except to point out that this isn't "published research" (it literally tells you that on the first page). The clear and inarguable truth is that the Tesla fleet is pushing three million cars now. They're safe. Are they safest? safer? less safe? There's space for argument. But the kind of absolutist story you're spinning just doesn't hold. If these cars were actually causing accidents at even a moderately higher rate, we'd quite clearly know about it. And they aren't.
  - culi 4y ago
    This study is from one of the original links I shared... You accused me of gish gallopping. I've since slowed down and focused on specific events. See my other comments about the battery swapping scam for example. Please provide some actual data proving these cars are safer than average. Tesla certainly hasn't been able to. And research, like the one I just linked which you refused to acknowledge, definitely does not back up Elon's claims
    - ajross 4y ago
      > Please provide some actual data proving these cars are safer than average. Tesla certainly hasn't been able to. But... they have. That's exactly the link we're discussing. You don't want that to be true, so you're digging around trying to pretend via a flood of bad evidence that they're somehow "lying" in that data. But... what if they aren't? Again, three million cars are an awfully big signal to try to spin. Isn't the Occam's Razor interpretation (also jives with my personal experience with the product, FWIW) that... they're safe?

oneoff786 4y ago

I read through all these links. They’re not great aside from the worker safety one. The first one states that Tesla is being misleading for claiming that it’s cars scores better for safety but not mentioning that the weight classes affect the scores. The original claim is still true though. Most of the others deal with the claim that the cars accidents per mile ratings are lower because they’re highway miles or because they’re driven by rich people. But… they’re still low. You can argue at best that there is no rigorous proof that Tesla cars are safer than other cars and that these are cherry picked stats for marketing. But there’s no compelling evidence that they’re more dangerous. Calling them lies is disingenuous. Regardless of one’s opinion of musk.

FireBeyond 4y ago
[Deleted for my poor reading comprehension].
- oneoff786 4y ago
  Those are work related injuries, not car accidents. I already agreed with that point.
- ajross 4y ago
  Good grief. Those are workplace accidents. In the factory. Edit: but you get the meta point, right? Upstream comment threw a ton of links at you along with an intended (and deliberately incorrect) interpretation knowing that you wouldn't read them carefully. That's why that kind of argumentation is so toxic.
culi 4y ago
Musk has repeatedly been called out by regulators for his misinformation. Some claims, like the safety of autopilot have been directly debunked by research. This article has a good literature review if you're interested: [0] https://engrxiv.org/preprint/view/1973/3986 https://engrxiv.org/preprint/view/1973/3986 > In independent research, Templeton (2020)compared Tesla’s stated crash rates with Autopilot enabled and not enabled by attempting to control for increased use of Autopilot on relatively safer freeways. To compare human-driven crash rates of freeways and non-freeways, Templeton used fatality rates, which may overestimate crash rates on freeways as higher speeds increase crash severity according to a fourth power law (Evans, 1994). When controlling for road type, the crash rate benefits of Autopilot narrowed significantly. Templeton was unable to fully assess their comparison of Autopilot crash rates with national estimates due to their different definitions of crashes. > Goodall (2021)investigated struck-from-behind crashes of automated vehicles using age-weighted crash rates from SHRP 2 NDS database as a baseline. Automated vehicles were struck from behind at five times the rate of human-driven vehicles, although much of the difference could be attributed to higher rates of urban driving experienced in automated vehicle testing. I'm also not sure what percent of level 2 ADAS vehicles are Tesla vs other brands but they're by far the most common vehicles with driver-assist involved: [1] https://www.theverge.com/2022/6/15/23168088/nhtsa-adas-self-driving-crash-data-tesla https://www.theverge.com/2022/6/15/23168088/nhtsa-adas-self-... Google's Waymo was lightyears ahead of Tesla. The reason they didn't go to market was that they knew it wasn't really ready. Elon Musk has lied (as in he knew the truth and lied) about their driver assistant technology's safety and capabilities and has been sued for it[2]. There's no other way to sugarcoat it [2] https://www.theverge.com/2022/9/14/23353787/elon-musk-tesla-lawsuit-autopilot-full-self-driving-promises https://www.theverge.com/2022/9/14/23353787/elon-musk-tesla-...