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This is silly hyperbole. I was paying honest attention to crypto and I was continually surprised that it didn’t crash. Eventually I gave up and stopped guessing

This is silly hyperbole. I was paying honest attention to crypto and I was continually surprised that it didn’t crash. Eventually I gave up and stopped guessing it was going to crash. Then it did :shrug:

spaceman_2020 4y ago
Bitcoin has dropped about the same amount as Netflix, Meta and Tesla (~70-74%) It has significantly outperformed VC darlings like Peloton (-93%) and WeWork (-90%). You can't tell me that WeWork stock wasn't working on the greater fool theory any more than Bitcoin's price works on finding more bagholders. It's all a grift, some worse than others.
- ycombobreaker 4y ago
  Peloton in particular was a beneficiary of the pandemic and lockdowns. With no ill will, I'm content to see their stock price drop if it is correlated with an improvement in the general state of the world. It's absolutely not informative to compare their returns to various crypto.
  - dilyevsky 4y ago
    Peloton got massively mismanaged by its ceo.
- jakelazaroff 4y ago
  WeWork wasn’t public, and SoftBank in particular seems more than willing to be the greater fool on bets we all know are terrible.
- yunohn 4y ago
  Equity/market are down generally, and some VC companies are frauds. That doesn’t change the fact that crypto is zero/negative sum.
ssharp 4y ago
Obviously hindsight, but the combination of 0% interest rates and the rise of retail investing post-March 2020 was fuel that had to run out eventually. Predicting tops/bottoms is a fools errand, however. If you thought Bitcoin was overpriced at $15,000 and see it rise to almost $70,000, only to see if fall, but not past the point where you initially thought it was overpriced -- well, hopefully you at least didn't bet on it being overpriced at $15k. I remember thinking how crazy Tesla's price seemed to me in June/July 2020. It then proceeded to go up more than 4x that price over the next 1.5 years before falling, but TSLA is still trading ~30% higher than those June/July 2020 prices.

spaceman_2020 4y ago

Bitcoin has dropped about the same amount as Netflix, Meta and Tesla (~70-74%) It has significantly outperformed VC darlings like Peloton (-93%) and WeWork (-90%). You can't tell me that WeWork stock wasn't working on the greater fool theory any more than Bitcoin's price works on finding more bagholders. It's all a grift, some worse than others.

ycombobreaker 4y ago
Peloton in particular was a beneficiary of the pandemic and lockdowns. With no ill will, I'm content to see their stock price drop if it is correlated with an improvement in the general state of the world. It's absolutely not informative to compare their returns to various crypto.
- dilyevsky 4y ago
  Peloton got massively mismanaged by its ceo.
jakelazaroff 4y ago
WeWork wasn’t public, and SoftBank in particular seems more than willing to be the greater fool on bets we all know are terrible.
yunohn 4y ago
Equity/market are down generally, and some VC companies are frauds. That doesn’t change the fact that crypto is zero/negative sum.

ssharp 4y ago

Obviously hindsight, but the combination of 0% interest rates and the rise of retail investing post-March 2020 was fuel that had to run out eventually. Predicting tops/bottoms is a fools errand, however. If you thought Bitcoin was overpriced at $15,000 and see it rise to almost $70,000, only to see if fall, but not past the point where you initially thought it was overpriced -- well, hopefully you at least didn't bet on it being overpriced at $15k. I remember thinking how crazy Tesla's price seemed to me in June/July 2020. It then proceeded to go up more than 4x that price over the next 1.5 years before falling, but TSLA is still trading ~30% higher than those June/July 2020 prices.