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If you were caught off-guard then you've been sitting in a massive bubble. There has been open distrust and hatred of cryptocurrencies since long before NFTs we

If you were caught off-guard then you've been sitting in a massive bubble. There has been open distrust and hatred of cryptocurrencies since long before NFTs were a thing. I would argue that NFTs did more to spread the word that cryptocurrencies are a farce than they did to create "value" for those behind them.

twelve40 4y ago
it's not a question of you getting caught off-guard but a massive exchange being trapped now (what do they do?) I kinda feel for them because they tried to build a legit-looking exchange business unlike the famous scams, but now they are stuck and these losses are mind-bending
- elpakal 4y ago
  I feel the same about HOOD. I own some of their stock but every time I see them announce a new crypto product, investment, team, feature etc I cringe. They have coupled themselves and the success of their non crypto products tightly to the success of crypto and I wonder if there will come a time when they try to cut out crypto or if it's too late to do so. I'm holding because I'm hoping they can swing it, but it's been tough to watch because I'm a crypto bear and always have been. I love what they've done with their equity marketplace and their new retirement product seems interesting - but so long as crypto is still around stinking up the place it's hard for me to be a consumer of theirs.
  - spaceman_2020 4y ago
    The Indian version of Robinhood - Zerodha - reported a profit of nearly $250M on revenues of $650M last year. It never raised venture funding and never sold any crypto. Bootstrapped businesses have the best execution.
lkbm 4y ago
I've seen hatred of crypto, constant insistence that it's 100% fraud, and claims that it's worthless and will collapse for many years now. In 2019, no one was saying it would crash in 2022; they were saying it would crash in 2019 or just "it will crash eventually" In 2020, they weren't saying it would crash in 2022, they were saying it would crash in 2020 or just "it will crash eventually" In 2021, they weren't saying it would crash in 2022, they were saying it would crash in 2021 or just "it will crash eventually" In 2022, they said it would crash in 2022 or just "it will crash eventually", and people who didn't realize it would actually happen in 2022 were in a bubble? It turned out that 2022 was different, but the predictions weren't any different, which means they weren't actually meaningful predictions.
- red-iron-pine 4y ago
  This house is garbage, it's gonna collapse. Didn't collapse last month. Didn't collapse the next month. Didn't collapse the next month. Finally collapses the one after. Was it still a POS garbage house? Probably.
- lxgr 4y ago
  If it can prevent any buy-and-hold/long-term retail investors from putting their money into something vastly overvalued, I'd argue that "it will eventually crash" is an extremely meaningful prediction even without a precise time frame.
- Aperocky 4y ago
  You are intentionally mixing up 2 types of prediction and belittling the one that's a more powerful driver than "it will crash on X date". "it will crash eventually" is more important, it results in people staying away/getting out of this market, for good. It's much more powerful than oh it's gonna crash on this or that date.
  - lkbm 4y ago
    To be clear, this is the thread we're in: > > I think everyone was completely caught off-guard by the ferocity and pace of the crypto drawdown. > If you were caught off-guard then you've been sitting in a massive bubble. OP is saying people were caught off-guard by the specifics of the crash. That doesn't require being in a bubble, because there weren't any specific correct predictions that were distinguishable from the specific incorrect predictions. Non-specific predictions may be useful, but they don't prevent you from being surprised by the specifics.
    - arcticbull 4y ago
      Coinbase was caught off guard because they drank the koolaid. You know who didn't drink the koolaid? Cumberland/DRW and Jump.
    - Aperocky 4y ago

twelve40 4y ago

it's not a question of you getting caught off-guard but a massive exchange being trapped now (what do they do?) I kinda feel for them because they tried to build a legit-looking exchange business unlike the famous scams, but now they are stuck and these losses are mind-bending

elpakal 4y ago
I feel the same about HOOD. I own some of their stock but every time I see them announce a new crypto product, investment, team, feature etc I cringe. They have coupled themselves and the success of their non crypto products tightly to the success of crypto and I wonder if there will come a time when they try to cut out crypto or if it's too late to do so. I'm holding because I'm hoping they can swing it, but it's been tough to watch because I'm a crypto bear and always have been. I love what they've done with their equity marketplace and their new retirement product seems interesting - but so long as crypto is still around stinking up the place it's hard for me to be a consumer of theirs.
- spaceman_2020 4y ago
  The Indian version of Robinhood - Zerodha - reported a profit of nearly $250M on revenues of $650M last year. It never raised venture funding and never sold any crypto. Bootstrapped businesses have the best execution.

lkbm 4y ago

I've seen hatred of crypto, constant insistence that it's 100% fraud, and claims that it's worthless and will collapse for many years now. In 2019, no one was saying it would crash in 2022; they were saying it would crash in 2019 or just "it will crash eventually" In 2020, they weren't saying it would crash in 2022, they were saying it would crash in 2020 or just "it will crash eventually" In 2021, they weren't saying it would crash in 2022, they were saying it would crash in 2021 or just "it will crash eventually" In 2022, they said it would crash in 2022 or just "it will crash eventually", and people who didn't realize it would actually happen in 2022 were in a bubble? It turned out that 2022 was different, but the predictions weren't any different, which means they weren't actually meaningful predictions.

red-iron-pine 4y ago
This house is garbage, it's gonna collapse. Didn't collapse last month. Didn't collapse the next month. Didn't collapse the next month. Finally collapses the one after. Was it still a POS garbage house? Probably.
lxgr 4y ago
If it can prevent any buy-and-hold/long-term retail investors from putting their money into something vastly overvalued, I'd argue that "it will eventually crash" is an extremely meaningful prediction even without a precise time frame.
Aperocky 4y ago
You are intentionally mixing up 2 types of prediction and belittling the one that's a more powerful driver than "it will crash on X date". "it will crash eventually" is more important, it results in people staying away/getting out of this market, for good. It's much more powerful than oh it's gonna crash on this or that date.
- lkbm 4y ago
  To be clear, this is the thread we're in: > > I think everyone was completely caught off-guard by the ferocity and pace of the crypto drawdown. > If you were caught off-guard then you've been sitting in a massive bubble. OP is saying people were caught off-guard by the specifics of the crash. That doesn't require being in a bubble, because there weren't any specific correct predictions that were distinguishable from the specific incorrect predictions. Non-specific predictions may be useful, but they don't prevent you from being surprised by the specifics.
  - arcticbull 4y ago
    Coinbase was caught off guard because they drank the koolaid. You know who didn't drink the koolaid? Cumberland/DRW and Jump.
  - Aperocky 4y ago