5 ms·

I think everyone was completely caught off-guard by the ferocity and pace of the crypto drawdown. Volumes have atrophied completely. It's not a cooling of reta

by spaceman_2020 4y ago

I think everyone was completely caught off-guard by the ferocity and pace of the crypto drawdown. Volumes have atrophied completely. It's not a cooling of retail interest vis-a-vis the stock market, but complete apathy and/or hatred. See the volume data for OpenSea as an example.

kingkawn 4y ago
Absolutely nobody paying even a drop of honest attention was surprised by any part of the crypto drawdown
- roflc0ptic 4y ago
  This is silly hyperbole. I was paying honest attention to crypto and I was continually surprised that it didn’t crash. Eventually I gave up and stopped guessing it was going to crash. Then it did :shrug:
  - spaceman_2020 4y ago
    Bitcoin has dropped about the same amount as Netflix, Meta and Tesla (~70-74%) It has significantly outperformed VC darlings like Peloton (-93%) and WeWork (-90%). You can't tell me that WeWork stock wasn't working on the greater fool theory any more than Bitcoin's price works on finding more bagholders. It's all a grift, some worse than others.
    - ycombobreaker 4y ago
      Peloton in particular was a beneficiary of the pandemic and lockdowns. With no ill will, I'm content to see their stock price drop if it is correlated with an improvement in the general state of the world. It's absolutely not informative to compare their returns to various crypto.
      - dilyevsky 4y ago
        Peloton got massively mismanaged by its ceo.
    - jakelazaroff 4y ago
      WeWork wasn’t public, and SoftBank in particular seems more than willing to be the greater fool on bets we all know are terrible.
    - yunohn 4y ago
      Equity/market are down generally, and some VC companies are frauds. That doesn’t change the fact that crypto is zero/negative sum.
  - ssharp 4y ago
    Obviously hindsight, but the combination of 0% interest rates and the rise of retail investing post-March 2020 was fuel that had to run out eventually. Predicting tops/bottoms is a fools errand, however. If you thought Bitcoin was overpriced at $15,000 and see it rise to almost $70,000, only to see if fall, but not past the point where you initially thought it was overpriced -- well, hopefully you at least didn't bet on it being overpriced at $15k. I remember thinking how crazy Tesla's price seemed to me in June/July 2020. It then proceeded to go up more than 4x that price over the next 1.5 years before falling, but TSLA is still trading ~30% higher than those June/July 2020 prices.
- UncleMeat 4y ago
  I don't agree. People were aware of all of the same problems in early 2021. Is it a surprise that the momentum behind the ecosystem eventually fled once people couldn't sell to the next bagholder as easily? No. Is it a surprise that it happened in 2022? Yes. Nothing about the industry fundamentally changed between 2020/2021 (massive explosion of interest) and 2022 (collapse). In Dec 2021 there wasn't a particularly good reason to predict that the industry would collapse in 2022 instead of any other year.
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
- spaceman_2020 4y ago
  Absolutely everyone was surprised by the pace of the tech meltdown. It's not everyday that "blue chip" companies like Netflix and Meta and Tesla drop 60-70% within months. Meta crashed 73%. Tesla crashed 70%. Netflix crashed 72%. Everyone knew it was always going to come down, but if I were to tell you in September 2021 that Meta was going to trade 70% down within a year, you wouldn't have believed me
  - ycombobreaker 4y ago
    > if I were to tell you in September 2021 that Meta was going to trade 70% down within a year, you wouldn't have believed me I would have probably asked "who is Meta?" at which point you explain you are a time traveler, and Facebook was to change their name in the next few months, too. After my initial laughter, I suppose I'd believe your whole story, because you can't make this stuff up. Next thing you'll tell me, Zuckerberg has legally changed his name to "The Cooler Mark".
  - hvs 4y ago
    Sure I would. I've been through a couple of recessions now.
  - robswc 4y ago
    You know, I really like this comment because its pretty true. I think a lot of people will say they say the signs... and I initially wanted to say that too. It happened so "slow" though and its crazy to think about how "good" it was pre-covid. I mean, things generally were going up and IMO, life felt more "stable" so a tech crash 2-3 years out just wouldn't be on the radar. I have always said (w/comments to back it up) the $600 checks were going to cause huge issues sooner than later. I don't think its that prophetic or controversial (its basic econ) but at the time it seemed if you even suggested the idea that printing so much money was a bad idea you were seen as "hating poor people" or some other flavor of "against the common man." Still. I can't say I would have believed you. Otherwise, I would have shorted the whole tech sector.
    - spaceman_2020 4y ago
radicalbyte 4y ago
If you were caught off-guard then you've been sitting in a massive bubble. There has been open distrust and hatred of cryptocurrencies since long before NFTs were a thing. I would argue that NFTs did more to spread the word that cryptocurrencies are a farce than they did to create "value" for those behind them.
- twelve40 4y ago
  it's not a question of you getting caught off-guard but a massive exchange being trapped now (what do they do?) I kinda feel for them because they tried to build a legit-looking exchange business unlike the famous scams, but now they are stuck and these losses are mind-bending
  - elpakal 4y ago
    I feel the same about HOOD. I own some of their stock but every time I see them announce a new crypto product, investment, team, feature etc I cringe. They have coupled themselves and the success of their non crypto products tightly to the success of crypto and I wonder if there will come a time when they try to cut out crypto or if it's too late to do so. I'm holding because I'm hoping they can swing it, but it's been tough to watch because I'm a crypto bear and always have been. I love what they've done with their equity marketplace and their new retirement product seems interesting - but so long as crypto is still around stinking up the place it's hard for me to be a consumer of theirs.
    - spaceman_2020 4y ago
      The Indian version of Robinhood - Zerodha - reported a profit of nearly $250M on revenues of $650M last year. It never raised venture funding and never sold any crypto. Bootstrapped businesses have the best execution.
- lkbm 4y ago
  I've seen hatred of crypto, constant insistence that it's 100% fraud, and claims that it's worthless and will collapse for many years now. In 2019, no one was saying it would crash in 2022; they were saying it would crash in 2019 or just "it will crash eventually" In 2020, they weren't saying it would crash in 2022, they were saying it would crash in 2020 or just "it will crash eventually" In 2021, they weren't saying it would crash in 2022, they were saying it would crash in 2021 or just "it will crash eventually" In 2022, they said it would crash in 2022 or just "it will crash eventually", and people who didn't realize it would actually happen in 2022 were in a bubble? It turned out that 2022 was different, but the predictions weren't any different, which means they weren't actually meaningful predictions.
pjc50 4y ago
Timing the drawdown was difficult, but the whole thing was incredibly bubbly. If there's no fundamentals, only a desire to eventually sell out to a greater fool, the drop can be hard. Plus there's also the "Lehman Brothers moment" provided by FTX. People are learning what "counterparty risk" is. If you're not daytrading, then suddenly it's worth considering moving your crypto off the exchange and assuming the custody risk yourself.
Animats 4y ago
> I think everyone was completely caught off-guard by the ferocity and pace of the crypto drawdown. You have to believe. Especially if you claim to be a leader.
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]

kingkawn 4y ago

Absolutely nobody paying even a drop of honest attention was surprised by any part of the crypto drawdown

roflc0ptic 4y ago
This is silly hyperbole. I was paying honest attention to crypto and I was continually surprised that it didn’t crash. Eventually I gave up and stopped guessing it was going to crash. Then it did :shrug:
- spaceman_2020 4y ago
  Bitcoin has dropped about the same amount as Netflix, Meta and Tesla (~70-74%) It has significantly outperformed VC darlings like Peloton (-93%) and WeWork (-90%). You can't tell me that WeWork stock wasn't working on the greater fool theory any more than Bitcoin's price works on finding more bagholders. It's all a grift, some worse than others.
  - ycombobreaker 4y ago
    Peloton in particular was a beneficiary of the pandemic and lockdowns. With no ill will, I'm content to see their stock price drop if it is correlated with an improvement in the general state of the world. It's absolutely not informative to compare their returns to various crypto.
    - dilyevsky 4y ago
      Peloton got massively mismanaged by its ceo.
  - jakelazaroff 4y ago
    WeWork wasn’t public, and SoftBank in particular seems more than willing to be the greater fool on bets we all know are terrible.
  - yunohn 4y ago
    Equity/market are down generally, and some VC companies are frauds. That doesn’t change the fact that crypto is zero/negative sum.
- ssharp 4y ago
  Obviously hindsight, but the combination of 0% interest rates and the rise of retail investing post-March 2020 was fuel that had to run out eventually. Predicting tops/bottoms is a fools errand, however. If you thought Bitcoin was overpriced at $15,000 and see it rise to almost $70,000, only to see if fall, but not past the point where you initially thought it was overpriced -- well, hopefully you at least didn't bet on it being overpriced at $15k. I remember thinking how crazy Tesla's price seemed to me in June/July 2020. It then proceeded to go up more than 4x that price over the next 1.5 years before falling, but TSLA is still trading ~30% higher than those June/July 2020 prices.
UncleMeat 4y ago
I don't agree. People were aware of all of the same problems in early 2021. Is it a surprise that the momentum behind the ecosystem eventually fled once people couldn't sell to the next bagholder as easily? No. Is it a surprise that it happened in 2022? Yes. Nothing about the industry fundamentally changed between 2020/2021 (massive explosion of interest) and 2022 (collapse). In Dec 2021 there wasn't a particularly good reason to predict that the industry would collapse in 2022 instead of any other year.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
spaceman_2020 4y ago
Absolutely everyone was surprised by the pace of the tech meltdown. It's not everyday that "blue chip" companies like Netflix and Meta and Tesla drop 60-70% within months. Meta crashed 73%. Tesla crashed 70%. Netflix crashed 72%. Everyone knew it was always going to come down, but if I were to tell you in September 2021 that Meta was going to trade 70% down within a year, you wouldn't have believed me
- ycombobreaker 4y ago
  > if I were to tell you in September 2021 that Meta was going to trade 70% down within a year, you wouldn't have believed me I would have probably asked "who is Meta?" at which point you explain you are a time traveler, and Facebook was to change their name in the next few months, too. After my initial laughter, I suppose I'd believe your whole story, because you can't make this stuff up. Next thing you'll tell me, Zuckerberg has legally changed his name to "The Cooler Mark".
- hvs 4y ago
  Sure I would. I've been through a couple of recessions now.
- robswc 4y ago
  You know, I really like this comment because its pretty true. I think a lot of people will say they say the signs... and I initially wanted to say that too. It happened so "slow" though and its crazy to think about how "good" it was pre-covid. I mean, things generally were going up and IMO, life felt more "stable" so a tech crash 2-3 years out just wouldn't be on the radar. I have always said (w/comments to back it up) the $600 checks were going to cause huge issues sooner than later. I don't think its that prophetic or controversial (its basic econ) but at the time it seemed if you even suggested the idea that printing so much money was a bad idea you were seen as "hating poor people" or some other flavor of "against the common man." Still. I can't say I would have believed you. Otherwise, I would have shorted the whole tech sector.
  - spaceman_2020 4y ago

radicalbyte 4y ago

If you were caught off-guard then you've been sitting in a massive bubble. There has been open distrust and hatred of cryptocurrencies since long before NFTs were a thing. I would argue that NFTs did more to spread the word that cryptocurrencies are a farce than they did to create "value" for those behind them.

twelve40 4y ago
it's not a question of you getting caught off-guard but a massive exchange being trapped now (what do they do?) I kinda feel for them because they tried to build a legit-looking exchange business unlike the famous scams, but now they are stuck and these losses are mind-bending
- elpakal 4y ago
  I feel the same about HOOD. I own some of their stock but every time I see them announce a new crypto product, investment, team, feature etc I cringe. They have coupled themselves and the success of their non crypto products tightly to the success of crypto and I wonder if there will come a time when they try to cut out crypto or if it's too late to do so. I'm holding because I'm hoping they can swing it, but it's been tough to watch because I'm a crypto bear and always have been. I love what they've done with their equity marketplace and their new retirement product seems interesting - but so long as crypto is still around stinking up the place it's hard for me to be a consumer of theirs.
  - spaceman_2020 4y ago
    The Indian version of Robinhood - Zerodha - reported a profit of nearly $250M on revenues of $650M last year. It never raised venture funding and never sold any crypto. Bootstrapped businesses have the best execution.
lkbm 4y ago
I've seen hatred of crypto, constant insistence that it's 100% fraud, and claims that it's worthless and will collapse for many years now. In 2019, no one was saying it would crash in 2022; they were saying it would crash in 2019 or just "it will crash eventually" In 2020, they weren't saying it would crash in 2022, they were saying it would crash in 2020 or just "it will crash eventually" In 2021, they weren't saying it would crash in 2022, they were saying it would crash in 2021 or just "it will crash eventually" In 2022, they said it would crash in 2022 or just "it will crash eventually", and people who didn't realize it would actually happen in 2022 were in a bubble? It turned out that 2022 was different, but the predictions weren't any different, which means they weren't actually meaningful predictions.

pjc50 4y ago

Timing the drawdown was difficult, but the whole thing was incredibly bubbly. If there's no fundamentals, only a desire to eventually sell out to a greater fool, the drop can be hard. Plus there's also the "Lehman Brothers moment" provided by FTX. People are learning what "counterparty risk" is. If you're not daytrading, then suddenly it's worth considering moving your crypto off the exchange and assuming the custody risk yourself.

Animats 4y ago

> I think everyone was completely caught off-guard by the ferocity and pace of the crypto drawdown. You have to believe. Especially if you claim to be a leader.

deleted 4y ago

[deleted]