Simple bayesian reasoning is not the same thing as "finding out the real causes of and working fixes for real world cases of harm attributed to gas". It's like

Simple bayesian reasoning is not the same thing as "finding out the real causes of and working fixes for real world cases of harm attributed to gas". It's like a software developer saying "that's easy, just ....." about anything with technology. It's always easy in theory. And it's always more complicated in practice.