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If you're so sure, you should capitalize on your insight and make some money in options.

AviationAtom 4y ago
There's money to be made day trading the volatility but I haven't the time, nor the experience, to predict each movement with reasonable certainty. I know the medium-term is down, and the long-term is up. If your outlook is long then you stay the course.
- BoorishBears 4y ago
  Going from dramatic doomsaying about "falling dominoes" to tepid observations that are almost impossible to not have come true, is really quite the downgrade. There will be pain because there's always pain to come with the mind bogglingly good times? I mean I and so so so many others in tech have done well enough in the last 5 years or so to weather quite a bit to understate the tech market leading up to this. Sure there's going to be unlucky folks who enter the market at the tail end of the current round of musical chairs, but even the doomsayer admits the long-term is up so... The only people I feel bad for are those who missed out because they were too busy thumbing their noses down at the crowd.
  - AviationAtom 4y ago
    Did dominoes not fall in 2008? 2000? There is always a trigger action. The mania that has been pervasive for the past few years has not been good. A boom cycle of 14 years is too long to not be painful when it turns to bust. Speaking of musical chairs it feels like people want the bank to keep playing as the ship goes down. Will we recover from it? Almost certainly we will, but the pain inflicted on many during that time will not be fun. We have an new generation in the workforce that has really only known prosperity for as far back as their conscious memories stretch. If money was my profession then you'd best believe I'd be capitalizing on this. Look at Citadel's profits from last year, despite being initially caught off guard, and losing a fair amount, at the hands of folks from Wall Street Bets. I do wholeheartedly believe this downturn will be worse than 2008 and 2000, perhaps on the levels we saw during the 1970s and 1980s, or slightly worse. I don't believe people see this as even remotely possible and that, I believe, is dangerous.
    - BoorishBears 4y ago
      Again: > There will be pain because there's always pain to come with the mind bogglingly good times? There was never anything interesting about being able to call out a 2008 or a 2000 because every single year in between them someone was always saying this was going to be the year of "tulip mania come roost". People would see dips in 2010 and point to them as obvious proof that 2008 was just the tip of the iceberg, and they had about as much to go on as you would if you weren't able to pull up a graph of the years that follow today. - What makes it interesting (read: worth saying out loud) is if you can put your money where your mouth was and actually bet something, then win on that bet. But saying stuff like "Pain inflicted during that time will not be fun"... well duh? You're telling me that a correction after the market rallies 400% in a decade that included a world-shifting global pandemic is going to be painful? I don't know, I guess I just get rubbed the wrong way by broad gesturing with nothing being put down on it when it comes after a period that has literally been defined by the same. The last decade has been so much of it in fact, that at this point even another "1970s or slightly worse" wouldn't cover the losses we've been promised.
      - AviationAtom 4y ago
        I believe you're saying such because I don't have the "creds" to claim it. The people with creds feel the same way. If Morgan Stanley feels a bigger downturn is looming then they more than likely are putting their money where their mouth is. https://www.yahoo.com/now/morgan-stanley-michael-wilson-says-091415896.html https://www.yahoo.com/now/morgan-stanley-michael-wilson-says...
XorNot 4y ago
I don't disagree with this nominally, but "the market can remain irrational longer then you remain solvent" has been proven ongoingly true. Ultimately you're trying to time the market and you are paying for the privilege of doing so.
baby 4y ago
I bought a bunch of call options for GoPro, because they're switching to a subscription model and being very aggressive about it (you get a year for free when you buy the latest gopro AND a discount on the gopro, it's insane). Yet, the options just crashed like crazy over time. Irrational market.
- theGnuMe 4y ago
  The market is too small for GoPro to grow. GoPro has been in trouble since 2015.
  - baby 4y ago
    I think they're growing on the cloud + software side though, and they also have their gopro max (360 camera) offering that I don't think is really matched by the competition right now. The next step for them is really to offer some video editing tools online.

There's money to be made day trading the volatility but I haven't the time, nor the experience, to predict each movement with reasonable certainty. I know the medium-term is down, and the long-term is up. If your outlook is long then you stay the course.

BoorishBears 4y ago
Going from dramatic doomsaying about "falling dominoes" to tepid observations that are almost impossible to not have come true, is really quite the downgrade. There will be pain because there's always pain to come with the mind bogglingly good times? I mean I and so so so many others in tech have done well enough in the last 5 years or so to weather quite a bit to understate the tech market leading up to this. Sure there's going to be unlucky folks who enter the market at the tail end of the current round of musical chairs, but even the doomsayer admits the long-term is up so... The only people I feel bad for are those who missed out because they were too busy thumbing their noses down at the crowd.
- AviationAtom 4y ago
  Did dominoes not fall in 2008? 2000? There is always a trigger action. The mania that has been pervasive for the past few years has not been good. A boom cycle of 14 years is too long to not be painful when it turns to bust. Speaking of musical chairs it feels like people want the bank to keep playing as the ship goes down. Will we recover from it? Almost certainly we will, but the pain inflicted on many during that time will not be fun. We have an new generation in the workforce that has really only known prosperity for as far back as their conscious memories stretch. If money was my profession then you'd best believe I'd be capitalizing on this. Look at Citadel's profits from last year, despite being initially caught off guard, and losing a fair amount, at the hands of folks from Wall Street Bets. I do wholeheartedly believe this downturn will be worse than 2008 and 2000, perhaps on the levels we saw during the 1970s and 1980s, or slightly worse. I don't believe people see this as even remotely possible and that, I believe, is dangerous.
  - BoorishBears 4y ago
    Again: > There will be pain because there's always pain to come with the mind bogglingly good times? There was never anything interesting about being able to call out a 2008 or a 2000 because every single year in between them someone was always saying this was going to be the year of "tulip mania come roost". People would see dips in 2010 and point to them as obvious proof that 2008 was just the tip of the iceberg, and they had about as much to go on as you would if you weren't able to pull up a graph of the years that follow today. - What makes it interesting (read: worth saying out loud) is if you can put your money where your mouth was and actually bet something, then win on that bet. But saying stuff like "Pain inflicted during that time will not be fun"... well duh? You're telling me that a correction after the market rallies 400% in a decade that included a world-shifting global pandemic is going to be painful? I don't know, I guess I just get rubbed the wrong way by broad gesturing with nothing being put down on it when it comes after a period that has literally been defined by the same. The last decade has been so much of it in fact, that at this point even another "1970s or slightly worse" wouldn't cover the losses we've been promised.
    - AviationAtom 4y ago
      I believe you're saying such because I don't have the "creds" to claim it. The people with creds feel the same way. If Morgan Stanley feels a bigger downturn is looming then they more than likely are putting their money where their mouth is. https://www.yahoo.com/now/morgan-stanley-michael-wilson-says-091415896.html https://www.yahoo.com/now/morgan-stanley-michael-wilson-says...

XorNot 4y ago

I don't disagree with this nominally, but "the market can remain irrational longer then you remain solvent" has been proven ongoingly true. Ultimately you're trying to time the market and you are paying for the privilege of doing so.

baby 4y ago

I bought a bunch of call options for GoPro, because they're switching to a subscription model and being very aggressive about it (you get a year for free when you buy the latest gopro AND a discount on the gopro, it's insane). Yet, the options just crashed like crazy over time. Irrational market.

theGnuMe 4y ago
The market is too small for GoPro to grow. GoPro has been in trouble since 2015.
- baby 4y ago
  I think they're growing on the cloud + software side though, and they also have their gopro max (360 camera) offering that I don't think is really matched by the competition right now. The next step for them is really to offer some video editing tools online.