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Is there a strategy for avoiding companies that will respond to small changes in the macroeconomy by instantly throwing thousands of people onto the street in a

Is there a strategy for avoiding companies that will respond to small changes in the macroeconomy by instantly throwing thousands of people onto the street in a country with third-world (and even below some of those) social safety nets? I know I'll catch some flack for referring to the central bank of the world reserve currency saying "WE'RE GOING TO CAUSE A RECESSION AND IF YOU RESIST WE WILL MAKE IT 2 RECESSIONS" a "minor" change but I mean really, the US is still a nuclear power and the world reserve currency, there's not even any clear threat to US hegemony and one of the major opponents of it is currently being beaten by a combination of old NATO surplus and consumer drones. Etc etc broadly speaking the US seems like it's not going anywhere. So to my question - do I just need to avoid public companies, because they'll whiplash hiring and layoffs to overreact to quarterly time horizons? Do I need to avoid big companies who will just be able to lay off 3000 employees no big deal because at that size any individual employee isn't a lynchpin anymore? Do I just need to look for owners who can ignore the next 12 months and focus on multi-year success and not over correct in the short term? Or is it just impossible and I need to go canvas and support political change that will give us stronger worker protections?

lovich 4y ago
> …do I just need to avoid public companies… Pretty much. They’re beholden to their investors and modern day investors in public companies pretty much only care about next quarter’s results. Your other options are private companies with long term game plans but I don’t know of many that aren’t looking to exit eventually as either a public company(back to your problem), or get acquired(also probably a public company) There are small mom and pop companies that go on for years and never lay anyone off unless absolutely forced but they also tend to be at the lower end of the compensation band
rayiner 4y ago
Are you even aware of what safety nets exist in New York and New Jersey? Can you say without looking it up what happens with health care for someone who is laid off in those states? What’s the unemployment benefit? I assume you know the answer based on your confident assertion.
bwestergard 4y ago
Some unions have successfully negotiated collective bargaining agreements that constrain or disincentivize the behavior you describe ("respond to small changes in the macroeconomy by instantly throwing thousands of people onto the street"). One of the most common is a mandatory base severance payment (e.g. twelve weeks of of base pay) plus a certain amount for every month of employee tenure (e.g. four weeks of additional pay for every year at the company up to some limit). This gives the employer an incentive to consider a longer time horizon when hiring.
prepend 4y ago
I think any large company will have these rotating layoffs and the key to working for them is to keep a high level of performance as documented in annual reviews. Other than that, I think any large Corp will do layoffs. Either routinely or any excuse in the economy to fire people they don’t want to retain. I don’t think there’s any political change to affect Goldman Sachs as I can’t see them having a single union to protect workers.
deleted 4y ago
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DwnVoteHoneyPot 4y ago
Start your own company and you can run it as you wish. Also, then you'll be on the other side of the table. You'll start complaining that employees can quit on a whim, while it's impossible to get rid of them when you need to. EDIT: especially Goldman employees! You really think they're not mercenaries in suits who wouldn't go across the street just for a $10K raise?
- PenguinCoder 4y ago
  Everyone working for money is a mercenary. Why the fuck wouldn't I go across the road for more money? That is the most important thing about being PAID TO WORK.
  - DwnVoteHoneyPot 4y ago
    Sure. Then it's fair game for lays offs too.
deleted 4y ago
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JamesBarney 4y ago
If you work in oil and gas they have pretty generous severance packages. I had coworkers who were let go with 6 months severances.
deleted 4y ago
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acdha 4y ago
Don’t forget to support unionization efforts: companies have significant advantages over individuals so anything you can do to even out the power dynamic will help.
credit_guy 4y ago
Just be good at what you do. Goldman is going through layoffs, and other banks too. But they are going through layoffs all the time, you just don't read about that. Some of the people who will be laid off will be out of a job for a long time, but some will find a job quite quickly. The better you are at your job, the lower the likelihood that you'll lose your job, and if you do, the shorter the period until you find another job. I know, job safety looks nice, and at first sight a society where everyone's job is on the line at any point in time looks scary. But the flip side is that this is what makes business dynamic. A society where it's impossible to lay people off is not going to be able to compete with one where businesses hire and fire at will. PS: I came to terms with the idea that I'll lose my job at least once before I retire long time ago. So far I didn't, but if I do tomorrow, I won't think it's the end of the world. I'll just celebrate the day I get my first new paycheck like the day I celebrated my first one years ago. I like to think I'll feel decades younger.
- acdha 4y ago
  > The better you are at your job, the lower the likelihood that you'll lose your job, and if you do, the shorter the period until you find another job. This is true to some extent but should come with the warning that you want to keep in mind what the market is looking for. If you’re a Rust/Linux expert and you live somewhere where most of the local IT demand is C#/Windows, or where most of the businesses are small/stable and just don’t hire all that often, you might have a hard time regardless of your skill level. Remote work helps but you’re also competing with everyone else who was just laid off, too. Good generic advice is to have reserves proportional to things like that and also your difficulty of moving (e.g. people with kids in school might want to be comfortable not moving for at least 6 months).
pyuser583 4y ago
Yes. Work for companies with established and predictable revenue: utilities, insurance, and defense.

lovich 4y ago

> …do I just need to avoid public companies… Pretty much. They’re beholden to their investors and modern day investors in public companies pretty much only care about next quarter’s results. Your other options are private companies with long term game plans but I don’t know of many that aren’t looking to exit eventually as either a public company(back to your problem), or get acquired(also probably a public company) There are small mom and pop companies that go on for years and never lay anyone off unless absolutely forced but they also tend to be at the lower end of the compensation band

rayiner 4y ago

Are you even aware of what safety nets exist in New York and New Jersey? Can you say without looking it up what happens with health care for someone who is laid off in those states? What’s the unemployment benefit? I assume you know the answer based on your confident assertion.

bwestergard 4y ago

Some unions have successfully negotiated collective bargaining agreements that constrain or disincentivize the behavior you describe ("respond to small changes in the macroeconomy by instantly throwing thousands of people onto the street"). One of the most common is a mandatory base severance payment (e.g. twelve weeks of of base pay) plus a certain amount for every month of employee tenure (e.g. four weeks of additional pay for every year at the company up to some limit). This gives the employer an incentive to consider a longer time horizon when hiring.

prepend 4y ago

I think any large company will have these rotating layoffs and the key to working for them is to keep a high level of performance as documented in annual reviews. Other than that, I think any large Corp will do layoffs. Either routinely or any excuse in the economy to fire people they don’t want to retain. I don’t think there’s any political change to affect Goldman Sachs as I can’t see them having a single union to protect workers.

deleted 4y ago

[deleted]

DwnVoteHoneyPot 4y ago

Start your own company and you can run it as you wish. Also, then you'll be on the other side of the table. You'll start complaining that employees can quit on a whim, while it's impossible to get rid of them when you need to. EDIT: especially Goldman employees! You really think they're not mercenaries in suits who wouldn't go across the street just for a $10K raise?

PenguinCoder 4y ago
Everyone working for money is a mercenary. Why the fuck wouldn't I go across the road for more money? That is the most important thing about being PAID TO WORK.
- DwnVoteHoneyPot 4y ago
  Sure. Then it's fair game for lays offs too.

deleted 4y ago

[deleted]

JamesBarney 4y ago

If you work in oil and gas they have pretty generous severance packages. I had coworkers who were let go with 6 months severances.

deleted 4y ago

[deleted]

acdha 4y ago

Don’t forget to support unionization efforts: companies have significant advantages over individuals so anything you can do to even out the power dynamic will help.

credit_guy 4y ago

Just be good at what you do. Goldman is going through layoffs, and other banks too. But they are going through layoffs all the time, you just don't read about that. Some of the people who will be laid off will be out of a job for a long time, but some will find a job quite quickly. The better you are at your job, the lower the likelihood that you'll lose your job, and if you do, the shorter the period until you find another job. I know, job safety looks nice, and at first sight a society where everyone's job is on the line at any point in time looks scary. But the flip side is that this is what makes business dynamic. A society where it's impossible to lay people off is not going to be able to compete with one where businesses hire and fire at will. PS: I came to terms with the idea that I'll lose my job at least once before I retire long time ago. So far I didn't, but if I do tomorrow, I won't think it's the end of the world. I'll just celebrate the day I get my first new paycheck like the day I celebrated my first one years ago. I like to think I'll feel decades younger.

acdha 4y ago
> The better you are at your job, the lower the likelihood that you'll lose your job, and if you do, the shorter the period until you find another job. This is true to some extent but should come with the warning that you want to keep in mind what the market is looking for. If you’re a Rust/Linux expert and you live somewhere where most of the local IT demand is C#/Windows, or where most of the businesses are small/stable and just don’t hire all that often, you might have a hard time regardless of your skill level. Remote work helps but you’re also competing with everyone else who was just laid off, too. Good generic advice is to have reserves proportional to things like that and also your difficulty of moving (e.g. people with kids in school might want to be comfortable not moving for at least 6 months).

pyuser583 4y ago

Yes. Work for companies with established and predictable revenue: utilities, insurance, and defense.