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>Yup, humans are generally awful at understanding and managing risk, Normal humans are normal at understanding and managing risk because normal is defined by t

>Yup, humans are generally awful at understanding and managing risk, Normal humans are normal at understanding and managing risk because normal is defined by typical human behavior. It is your expectations that deviate from the norm. (the above applies to pretty much all "people suck" type gripes)

toss1 4y ago
Interesting point; I'm not sure if we agree or not. While I've been very fortunate to have been able to pursue and get training in a variety of activities considered high-risk, I'm amazed at how often it applies to ordinary situations. Plus, an awful lot of ordinary life is much higher-risk than people think. We don't need extensive experience in sports or motorsports to understand that the difference between wearing a helmet or not in even a stupid little fall where your head hits something hard is the difference between "damn, I scratched my helmet" and your family organizing your funeral. This applies to everyone, and yet it is only this generation that is normalizing wearing helmets on bicycles, etc., and people still vociferously fight motorcycle helmet laws despite mountains of statistics of higher severe injury and death rates among non-helmeted motorcyclists vs. people who wear gear. While it is ordinary for most people to not only not understand epidemiology and statistics, a significant portion also willfully ignore the advice of those who do. Just because this significant portion exists, should we no longer expect people to either understand something or at least respect those who do? Most particularly, humans are obviously capable of understanding the difference between getting away with relying on Pure Dumb Luck vs applying knowledge, skill, technology, and attention to managing risk. Yet, just as obviously, MOST people haven't got a clue and consistently engage in foolish risks, and get injured or dead as a result, whether we're talking about YouTube idiots, people going to COVID parties, or in massive drinking binges, and nevermind understanding anything about engineering risk building bridges, aircraft, or whatever. It seems an obvious line to draw at understanding risk between using skill/knowledge/tech/attention vs using Pure Dumb Luck that the latter suck at risk management, and objectively most people are in the latter group. Moreover, I'd say more people are in this latter group, and the consequences are more serious, than in other fields, such as saying "most people suck at proper grammar". What am I missing?

toss1 4y ago

Interesting point; I'm not sure if we agree or not. While I've been very fortunate to have been able to pursue and get training in a variety of activities considered high-risk, I'm amazed at how often it applies to ordinary situations. Plus, an awful lot of ordinary life is much higher-risk than people think. We don't need extensive experience in sports or motorsports to understand that the difference between wearing a helmet or not in even a stupid little fall where your head hits something hard is the difference between "damn, I scratched my helmet" and your family organizing your funeral. This applies to everyone, and yet it is only this generation that is normalizing wearing helmets on bicycles, etc., and people still vociferously fight motorcycle helmet laws despite mountains of statistics of higher severe injury and death rates among non-helmeted motorcyclists vs. people who wear gear. While it is ordinary for most people to not only not understand epidemiology and statistics, a significant portion also willfully ignore the advice of those who do. Just because this significant portion exists, should we no longer expect people to either understand something or at least respect those who do? Most particularly, humans are obviously capable of understanding the difference between getting away with relying on Pure Dumb Luck vs applying knowledge, skill, technology, and attention to managing risk. Yet, just as obviously, MOST people haven't got a clue and consistently engage in foolish risks, and get injured or dead as a result, whether we're talking about YouTube idiots, people going to COVID parties, or in massive drinking binges, and nevermind understanding anything about engineering risk building bridges, aircraft, or whatever. It seems an obvious line to draw at understanding risk between using skill/knowledge/tech/attention vs using Pure Dumb Luck that the latter suck at risk management, and objectively most people are in the latter group. Moreover, I'd say more people are in this latter group, and the consequences are more serious, than in other fields, such as saying "most people suck at proper grammar". What am I missing?