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There's a pretty big difference in the odds of a house mains electrical shock stopping your heart compared to the 1 in 6 chance of the bullet being in the chamb

There's a pretty big difference in the odds of a house mains electrical shock stopping your heart compared to the 1 in 6 chance of the bullet being in the chamber that lands in alignment with the barrel.

nerdponx 4y ago
How big? Big enough to disregard? Humans are notoriously bad at evaluating probabilities and expected outcomes in probabilistic scenarios, especially in when one possible outcome is catastrophic with low probability. Otherwise you wouldn't see so many reckless distracted drivers on the road. You are advocating for a public communication strategy that only makes sense in some kind of rationalist fantasy world, but not in the real world. It's not some conspiracy to infantilize the public, it's just good sense to not do dangerous stuff and tempt fate.
- rootusrootus 4y ago
  > How big? Big enough to disregard? Yes, pretty much. 400 people are electrocuted in the US every year, usually in industrial situations. Thousands of people will get shocked today. The odds of a heart problem are low enough that suggesting people should be terrified of light sockets because it may stop their heart is just fearmongering, and reduces the effectiveness of other safety-related communication. This is like California proudly proclaiming that everything causes cancer. Counterproductive.
  - californical 4y ago
    I appreciate the point you’re making, but I’d like a source for > Thousands of people will get shocked today Before I come to any conclusions. According to [0], “There are also at least 30,000 shock incidents per year that are non-fatal” and “ In the United States, there are approximately 1000 deaths per year, as a result of electrical injuries” So about 1 in 30(ish) if we assume they accounted for nonreporting. If we assume they underreported by 10x, 1/300 is still pretty bad odds [0] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK448087/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK448087/
    - nerdponx 4y ago
      It's also fallacious to look at numbers like "1000 / 30000 = 3%" and say that you shouldn't have to worry about getting electrocuted when handling electricity because it's only a 3% chance of dying if you get electrocuted. That 3% number is causally intertwined with the fact that professionals take safety very seriously, and most non-professionals are afraid of electrical stuff and generally do try to take precautions around it, within the limits of their own knowledge.
    - hattmall 4y ago
      That's 30,000 people getting shocked and it being serious, needing to go to the hospital. People doing work around houses get shocked all the time. 120v in typical US house is like mildly annoying. Definitely not trying to hold onto wires with bare hands or anything but getting "bit" while changing light switches or outlets isn't painful enough for many people to worry about finding the breaker box.

nerdponx 4y ago

How big? Big enough to disregard? Humans are notoriously bad at evaluating probabilities and expected outcomes in probabilistic scenarios, especially in when one possible outcome is catastrophic with low probability. Otherwise you wouldn't see so many reckless distracted drivers on the road. You are advocating for a public communication strategy that only makes sense in some kind of rationalist fantasy world, but not in the real world. It's not some conspiracy to infantilize the public, it's just good sense to not do dangerous stuff and tempt fate.

rootusrootus 4y ago
> How big? Big enough to disregard? Yes, pretty much. 400 people are electrocuted in the US every year, usually in industrial situations. Thousands of people will get shocked today. The odds of a heart problem are low enough that suggesting people should be terrified of light sockets because it may stop their heart is just fearmongering, and reduces the effectiveness of other safety-related communication. This is like California proudly proclaiming that everything causes cancer. Counterproductive.
- californical 4y ago
  I appreciate the point you’re making, but I’d like a source for > Thousands of people will get shocked today Before I come to any conclusions. According to [0], “There are also at least 30,000 shock incidents per year that are non-fatal” and “ In the United States, there are approximately 1000 deaths per year, as a result of electrical injuries” So about 1 in 30(ish) if we assume they accounted for nonreporting. If we assume they underreported by 10x, 1/300 is still pretty bad odds [0] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK448087/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK448087/
  - nerdponx 4y ago
    It's also fallacious to look at numbers like "1000 / 30000 = 3%" and say that you shouldn't have to worry about getting electrocuted when handling electricity because it's only a 3% chance of dying if you get electrocuted. That 3% number is causally intertwined with the fact that professionals take safety very seriously, and most non-professionals are afraid of electrical stuff and generally do try to take precautions around it, within the limits of their own knowledge.
  - hattmall 4y ago
    That's 30,000 people getting shocked and it being serious, needing to go to the hospital. People doing work around houses get shocked all the time. 120v in typical US house is like mildly annoying. Definitely not trying to hold onto wires with bare hands or anything but getting "bit" while changing light switches or outlets isn't painful enough for many people to worry about finding the breaker box.