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Having lived through hype wave after hype wave after hype wave in tech over the last forty-fifty years, the commentary about the behaviour of VCs resonated. I w
by a4isms 4y ago
Having lived through hype wave after hype wave after hype wave in tech over the last forty-fifty years, the commentary about the behaviour of VCs resonated. I wonder if part of why VCs back so many copycat companies in hype cycles is a structural incentive to just invest money in things that are getting press, raising the VCs profile and attracting more deal flow and limited partners.
This led to idle speculation: If it was possible to short early-stage startups that VCs were backing, there would be as much incentive for the media to discuss a startup’s shortcomings and vapourware promises as there is to repeat their breathless braggadocio.
- hackitup7 4y agoI think there is some truth to the statement, although many VCs that I've met are really sharp and thoughtful. Not at all the caricature of greasy tech illiterates that sometimes gets thrown around. You kind of can't generate good returns if you aren't able to think about the long-term trajectories of industries. But I think that with the bubble times of 2018-2021 a lot of people entered the industry or changed their behavior because it was trendy and cool, and they have been way more down to ride the hype cycle rodeo.
- a4isms 4y agoI have also met many intelligent and thoughtful investors. I am speaking only to the systemic effects of a kind of marketplace for information that overvalues hype, and undervalues criticism. My speculative musing is that if people could take short positions in startups and not just coattail on as one of a group of investors, I wonder if we’d get a lot fewer breathless PR puff-pieces and a lot more cases for pessimism around certain types of hype cycle investments, backed by investors betting their own moeny against the hype.
- hackitup7 4y agoI think that that's very possible, and I completely agree with you on the phenomenon. There are also few limitations on your ability to talk your own book in the private markets which further turbocharges the hype cycle.