4 ms·
That's a bit complex for an HN reply but anyway in general the key of density is "not too much, not too little". Modern cities are in the "way too much" level,
That's a bit complex for an HN reply but anyway in general the key of density is "not too much, not too little". Modern cities are in the "way too much" level, some countrysides in the "way too low" level, Rivieras are the today mean IMVHO. Witch means enough dense to have a certain economy of scale, a certain sustainability of services, but not too much so they are able to evolve.
Let's take the example you do on "an apartment need less energy" because being stacked ..., that's true, in theory. In practice, at least here in UE, most apartments tend to be mean-old buildings, grown up quickly in some economic boom where energy costs was not something anyone care. You can't insulate effectively such buildings, you can do something at a high price for little results. While single-family homes are mixed, some are old, some are new and almost ALL can be rebuilt without absurd issues. Tall buildings can't: they are too dense, they are build in places where it's not allowed to build for good reasons (like some social housing of the '60s build one after another on a steep hill and a single crappy road to access all etc). So essentially they can only remain in they sorry state until they collapse or get demolished anyway.
How much they have cost in structures? Because a light 2 flat home it's a thing, a 12+ flat building it's another. How much big settlements have altered local climate to the point that any cities have it's own proper microbial signature, natural water system alterations etc? Spread settlements source water locally, so they do alter a bit, but not at a city scale, they pollute locally, but again not at a city scale. An example I found is http://www.newgeography.com/content/006840-high-density-and-sustainability http://www.newgeography.com/content/006840-high-density-and-... but you do not need real measurement it suffice to think how nature work and how humans can or can't integrate with it.
In a spread Riviera you still get a doctor nearby, because the density is enough, but you only get small buildings intermixed with nature. Yes, you need to travel, but you do not need expensive and invasive road infra, bridges, tunnels, metro etc just simple roads with some animal passages here and there, the soil is still permeable almost everywhere and so on.
In evolutionary terms: classic deliveries from on-line retail? No issues: just replace your mailbox with a small package home and that's done. Drones delivery? No issues. There is plenty of space. Just change the package delivery to offer an aerial access. Future flying cars? No issues. Just sacrifice a small area of your garden to create the lending place. You have room for p.v., to store water, ... since you can be A BIT autonomous any "service issues" from electricity grid to water supply it's not so urgent to fix and so on.
Long story short: economy of scale works when PRODUCER are nearby, since now in cities almost no one produce anything, there are just services and resellers in cities there is no more an economy of scale. Since WFH have issues but works and issues can be solved well, or at least mitigated with a bit of time, most westerns cities who are tertiary sector workers place have anyway no reasons to exists anymore. Transition it's not cheap, but in ALL CASES will happen because as I said before cities can't evolve and we evolve. As the time passes buildings reach their EOLs and rebuild them it's next to impossible or simply an absurd effort. There will be and already there is no room to move anymore, tied to crappy public transportation systems who are not sustainable if more effective and so on.
If we try at a slow peace it will hurt much less but try to deny that stating it's possible to keep building cities "but modern one", modern today, obsolete tomorrow, with the same issue is as hypocritical as my friend...
> at least here in UE, most apartments
Umm, I gave citations which show your claim that "living on private cars in vast Rivieras do pollute GLOBALLY much LESS" needs much more solid support than your personal views which you have just repeated.
These included examples from Germany (where different regions had different urban/rural balance) and France (where rural had more CO2 emissions).
> you do not need expensive and invasive road infra
Do you have evidence for that? You need, what, 100 meter of street per house? And you are, what, one person? While 100 meter for an urban street is indeed more expensive in linear terms, but can support hundreds of people.
> Drones delivery? No issues. There is plenty of space. .... Future flying cars?
Flight is energy intensive. Either you have heavy batteries (making the flight even more expensive) or you've got hydrocarbons, which currently means fossil fuel.
Batched ground transport is more fuel efficient. It only costs, what, about 1 EUR to get a letter delivered to your door? But you only get that once per day, and not every day.
The Rivieras had horse-drawn delivery before vehicles so you only need a few horsepower to get around. Ground-based vehicles emit less pollution, operate in a wide range of weather, and have safer failure modes.
> You have room for p.v., to store water
My point is that this means you don't have any cost sharing with your neighbors. Each house needs enough to cover its peak use, and likely each person need to know how to maintain the local equipment, and have the tools for the additional maintenance.
One city water tower is more effective than the same amount of individual cisterns.
> since now in cities almost no one produce anything,
As a software developer, I would produce exactly the same amount in the countryside as I would in the city.
Actually, probably less because I would have more to maintain the house.
> most westerns cities who are tertiary sector workers place have anyway no reasons to exists anymore
You do know that many people like to be in the city for easy access to restaurants, clothes shopping, the library, clubs, socializing with friends, lectures, political demonstrations, parades, churches, festivals, and more, right?
I personally hate taking care of a lawn, and I get cabin fever working from home.
> tied to crappy public transportation systems who are not sustainable
It's not like wide-scale ownership of personal automobiles is sustainable either. I mean, your lifestyle requires two cars. What happens if, due to age or illness, you no longer have the physical ability to drive? What do you do then?
> These included examples from Germany (where different regions had different urban/rural balance) and France (where rural had more CO2 emissions).
Not to being rude but such computations are not science, are just game based on arbitrary assumptions... A "TCO of pollution" need a damn large model who simulate all people consumption traced to their sources, counting relevant processes in between + simulate different theoretically realistic arrangements changing some parameters. AFAIK no such models exists probably simply because it's not much in fashion reasoning in global terms instead of focusing on single specific aspects and perhaps it's so long and complex that most fear anyone can spot small errors practically not really important, but weaponized to discredit the whole design...
> Do you have evidence for that? You need, what, 100 meter of street per house?
A simple empirical evidence: do a large Riviera need many simple roads or big dorsals? I mean why we need a big highway? Typically to connect a dense area to another because many people and goods travel from some "hub" (in network theory speaking) while a almost-hub-less network do need more small links to traverse it from anywhere to anywhere. Now if you agree with that try to imaging how impacting is building such expensive highways vs small roads. Not much in absolute terms (like how many rocks, asphalt etc you need) but in relative terms of local impact on climate and nature.
It's the same for a fully watertight city area vs a sparse urbanized one: both roads are watertight, but in a city there is a very large watertight surface who push water in few directions, in the riviera water goes everywhere so you do not get much "river" effect that alter local water system. Similarly for small roads you do not need to destroy entire mountains, create giant infra that alter local wind and so on.
> Flight is energy intensive. Either you have heavy batteries (making the flight even more expensive) or you've got hydrocarbons, which currently means fossil fuel.
Sure, so far, BUT that's anyway our path for various reasons, climate and social change included who need to move people and so having "movable infra", something not doable with roads or rails but doable by air and water. Also we have to compute the cost of vehicle + it's use vs crafting a whole road/rail etc infra and keeping it up. Again it's a damn complex model but it's not a new idea that by air is almost at the same cost even if we can't move anything by air... It's not me but
https://www.easa.europa.eu/sites/default/files/dfu/uam-full-report.pdf https://www.easa.europa.eu/sites/default/files/dfu/uam-full-... who claim that's the future. They claim for urban mobility but I think that's definitively crazy, while it's perfectly doable in a large riviera, and I doubt McKinsey do not have though that...
> Batched ground transport is more fuel efficient.
That's theoretically true, practically false: public transports are efficient when are a bit loaded, but to be effective they need to operate 24/7/365 witch means OR they accept to be far less efficient than private transports MOST of the time or they simply run only for efficient usages and so people need anyway a private transport and having both is still less efficient that using only one. Even in Swiss, to cite a fresh article: https://www.thelocal.ch/20230109/opinion-trains-in-switzerland-are-excellent-so-why-are-cars-still-king https://www.thelocal.ch/20230109/opinion-trains-in-switzerla...
> My point is that this means you don't have any cost sharing with your neighbors. Each house needs enough to cover its peak use, and likely each person need to know how to maintain the local equipment, and have the tools for the additional maintenance.
That's another classic problem, still unsolved. In the recent past for instance teleheating was sold as and eco-friendly cheap and simple way: you get hot water from some industry cooling systems who need to push heat out and you are happy. Now those who choose that path cry that their heating prices have skyrocketed... Similarly nowadays in UE homes are FAR cheaper than apartments in operational expense terms. The issue essentially is "if we are all smart and fair anything is simpler sharing stuff", but the big if tend to be valid for limited period of time...
The city water tower is a good example: in theory individual homes get water and have nothing but keep up normal home pipes. Nice. In practice it means that an accident on the system is a general emergency since anyone are without water. If you have a bit of reserve at home, EVERY HOME, than the emergency is far less urgent and so maintenance and design costs goes down. You do not need a hyper-quick team 24/7 ready to run, with anything needed immediately available for instance. For electricity it's the same: a spread Rivieras grid with homes capable of few hours autonomous power it's far less costly than a dense grid that must reduce downtime to the extreme. There is a storm and some transformers burn? Oh, no issue we will change them tomorrow vs push people in the middle of a stormy night with all they need to change it ASAP. We users do not feel those costs but they are still there.
> Actually, probably less because I would have more to maintain the house.
And how much time you save having cut the trip to the office ALL working days?
> You do know that many people like to be in the city for easy access to restaurants, clothes shopping, the library, clubs, socializing with friends, lectures, political demonstrations, parades, churches, festivals, and more, right?
Yes, BUT I know that if enough people flee the city those who want it can only keep it up alone, witch is a doomed to fail effort... BTW in terms of ease of access: try to move in a dense EU city and in a vast riviera... It's often easier do 100km in a riviera than 10 in a city. Personal experience...
> It's not like wide-scale ownership of personal automobiles is sustainable either. I mean, your lifestyle requires two cars. What happens if, due to age or illness, you no longer have the physical ability to drive? What do you do then?
That's a issue common everywhere: if we do not die young at a certain point we need help. But help in a riviera it's not much different than in a city, for instance it means having someone who gives you food, help you move etc, evolution is the answer: we are near self-driving cars, in the future even if not tomorrow, we will have them. In the future we will have likely much more automation that allow elders to remain autonomous for a larger timeframe of their life. Then... Than it's the same than today. At a certain point we can't live alone anymore. And that's why we have structure to help the elders, having them in a city or spread does just means having littler structures in nature instead of isolated concrete buildings where we can't almost see anything nice around...
However you are right stating that NOT EVERYBODY can afford certain homes, cars etc, and that's a problem I do not see solved by anyone. Those who claim goshiwong alike homes solve that tend to be some who want young and productive slaves, not anything else...
> I'm not talking in CO₂ terms but in pollution terms.
The topic was "If we all cycled like the Dutch, global emissions would drop 700M tonnes".
Some forms of pollution are more critical than others.
> it's economically sound develop as much as possible such local resources and so the fraction of long-haul food logistics we need it far reduced
We had such an economy. Turns out canal and then rail are far more efficient at moving goods than roads. So much so that canal and then rail hubs became important towns and cities.
Cheap fossil fuels then made road transport more economical, allowing suburban and exurban sprawl, like what you enjoy.
> I buy large ones and freeze all I can freeze
You know that people who live in the city can do that too, right? We keep bulk foods in our basement storage, where it's dark and cool.
In the US, Latter Day Saints ("Mormons") believe they should have a three months to a year of food in storage, and many Mormons live in Salt Lake City.
> do you think tall buildings in cities are eternal
"Tall buildings" is a common misdirection by people who don't like cities. "Tall" can be 5 stories, like the one I live in, or it can be 100 stories, like a skyscraper.
No buildings are eternal, including rural ones. Tearing down and building a new 5 story building with 20 apartments is not hard. Likely cheaper than tearing down and re-building 20 free-standing houses. Have you computed the costs?
And a lot of people live in urban areas in detached houses, and "with a mix of residential and commercial small buildings with enough space around for nature."
> ZERO economy of scale ANYWHERE
I can't see how anyone with a basic sense of production history can make that claim.
Even on a physical level, big cargo ships are much cheaper per ton-mile than smaller ones. That's why we have 20,000 TEU+ container ships.
Your argument seems to be that every example from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economies_of_scale https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economies_of_scale is bunk, and every economist from Adam Smith on up is wrong.
This is a very surprising conclusion, which requires very strong evidence. So far you've only presented your gut feelings.
> We do not have real innovation anymore
You aren't the first to say that. Over 2000 years ago someone wrote:
"What has been will be again, what has been done will be done again; there is nothing new under the sun.", Ecclesiastes 1:9