Agreed for sure. That said though, for which time horizon are your predictions going to remain valid? It's an interesting perspective I think to look at AGI r

Agreed for sure. That said though, for which time horizon are your predictions going to remain valid? It's an interesting perspective I think to look at AGI risk in a 100 year time horizon because imho I think that's a conservative lower bound estimate for the lifespan of babies born today, if their families can afford access for them to education and good medical care. A lot can change in 100 years. Here's a sampling of current events from 100 years ago, in 1923: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1923#Events https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1923#Events March 9 – Vladimir Lenin suffers his third stroke, which renders him bedridden and unable to speak; consequently he retires from his position as Chairman of the Soviet government. March 28 – Regia Aeronautica, the air force of Fascist Italy, is founded. May 27 – The Ku Klux Klan in the United States defies a law requiring publication of its membership. September 4 – The United States Navy's first home-built rigid airship USS Shenandoah (ZR-1) makes her first flight at Naval Air Station Lakehurst (New Jersey); she contains most of the world's extracted reserves of helium at this time. October 29 – Turkey becomes a republic, following the dissolution of the Ottoman Empire; Kemal Atatürk is elected as first president.