3 ms·

10 years seems a bit aggressive, doesn't it? I guess he's right on the general demographic trend, but...

• DiogenesKynikos 4y ago
  In 2050, the populations of the US and China are projected to be: * China: 1.3 billion * USA: 450 million The public discourse in the US about China is schizophrenic. Either China is the biggest threat ever, or it's about to collapse. Sometimes the same people say both things at once. Beyond that, Zeihan comes across as a BS artist. He confidently makes all sorts of absurd statements. For example, "Their educational system focuses on memorization over skills, so despite over a trillion dollar investment and a bottomless supply of intellectual property theft, they really haven't advanced technologically in the last 15 years." It's hard to imagine anyone who's been to China recently, or who works anywhere near tech or academia saying this. China in 2008 and 2023 are almost incomparable on pretty much every level, including educationally and technologically. One more funny quote by Zeihan: "They [China] are going away, and they're going away this decade." The world's largest country by population, which is the 1st- or 2nd-largest by GDP (depending on whether you correct for purchasing power), and which has arguably existed for over 3000 years, is "going away" this decade? Bold prediction.