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There is nothing illegal about looking like a scam. It is only illegal to be a scam. I think the market making profits from Tether have been pretty substantial
by darawk 4y ago
There is nothing illegal about looking like a scam. It is only illegal to be a scam.
I think the market making profits from Tether have been pretty substantial over the years. They charge very high redemption fees, which means that either they, or some close partner of theirs is the primary liquidity provider. Tether is usually mostly on peg, but it is frequently off by a few basis points, sometimes a few tens of basis points, and occasionally a percent or two. The liquidity at these levels is often quite deep, meaning you can earn fairly substantial profits by buying it up.
It's not just the headline moments when it's off peg, it's the daily liquidity churn of people willing to sell a few basis points below par, because they'd rather get out. Look at this price chart:
https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/tether/ https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/tether/
And look at the daily volume Tether experiences. During 2021 it traded roughly ~$100B in volume per day. One basis point on that is $10M/day. Of course, they're not a counterparty to every Tether trade, not even close, but even a fraction of that is very good money, and remember it was frequently off peg by more than one basis point. Also keep in mind the point of comparison here, which is essentially short term treasury rates over the last several years. I think the MM profit on Tether has certainly been at least close enough to match if not significantly exceed the yield on cash equivalents over Tether's lifetime (until very recently).
Note that Tether is also frequently off peg in the other direction, and they can exploit that too by minting and selling USDT into the market when that occurs. Of course, that has nothing to do with them looking dodgy or not (it's correlated to sharp, unexpected liquidity demands by retail).
- notahacker 4y ago> There is nothing illegal about looking like a scam. It is only illegal to be a scam. Unfortunately, investigators, client banks and other people you'd quite like to use for short term liquidity or long term profit opportunities don't tend to take "actually we're only trying to look like a scam" as a nice straightforward answer to their questions, so you get most of the problems of actually running a scam without the money even if authorities ultimately fail to find something they can put you in jail and confiscate your assets for (intentionally looking like a scam to manipulate your asset price would get you prosecuted in more regulated markets anyway). Is that worth it to earn a slightly larger and more downward-skewed spread on smaller volume? Certainly not if it's only matching cash equivalent yields you'd get without that (though I'll concede just because a strategy isn't worth the risk doesn't guarantee a crypto company won't try it). Obviously there's market making profit to be had, but as you acknowledge much of that exists due to short term liquidity fluctuations anyway. Short term liquidity is a motivation to exit some of your position at 0.997 instead of 1.000 as well as for others to pay over 1.000 to get their order filled instantly; the whole coin having looked like a scam for several years is a motivation to use USDC instead. And since there's no plausible separation from Bitfinex exchange, the appearance of dodginess also means missing out on larger volumes of transaction fees and market making opportunities on all other cryptocurrencies...