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Don’t buy stocks before 2H 2023, or until the 1Y US bond yield is greater than inflation. In other terms until the real interest rate is positive.
by leoplct 4y ago
Don’t buy stocks before 2H 2023, or until the 1Y US bond yield is greater than inflation. In other terms until the real interest rate is positive.
- voisin 4y agoWhat’s your logic here? Negative real interest rates are artificially inflating the market?
- raincom 4y agoInteresting take, as interest rate = inflation + cost of money
- leoplct 4y agoBecause central banks will increase interest rates until real interest rate will turn positive. Every rally in the meanwhile is just a bear market rally.