Completely agree. The overcorrection applies in both directions. The two value (estimate and confidence) is just a simple approach that is rather intuitive to

Completely agree. The overcorrection applies in both directions. The two value (estimate and confidence) is just a simple approach that is rather intuitive to interpret directly. As you note, diving into 3 point estimates gives to ability to extract beta distribution or other weightings that may or may not be suitable for the given domain. Complete top down planning for any work that involves discovery is useless, at best. That doesn't mean no planning is better. (Source: have experienced and been actively involved in both sides of that overcorrection.)