3 ms·

It's becoming increasingly clear Tesla is just another car company

5 points by clouddrover 4y ago

tamaharbor 4y ago
I will buy a Tesla at >600 mile range.
- josephcsible 4y ago
  How often do you drive 600 miles without stopping for lunch? And does the gas car you own now have that much range?
  - tamaharbor 4y ago
    My wife and I do a lot of cross-country driving. 600 miles is our daily older-person driving limit. My greatest fear (at this time) is that the only charging station in town is backed up with a dozen cars in front of us. That would mess up our schedule big time.
- quantified 4y ago
  That'll about make up for the charging time to go 500 miles. It'd be nice to only need to pay for say 200 miles range with the base but easily rent the additional 400 miles of capacity for a long trip. That way, the unnecessary capacity isn't always weighing the car down, and the battery for it is more likely used for an actual long trip.
linsomniac 4y ago
Many people, myself included, thought the "TSLA valuation > other automakers" wasn't a reasonable comparison, because of the "Secret Master Plan" to be an energy company. But, over the last year, that master plan has gone MIA, making Tesla just another car company.
linsomniac 4y ago
Related reporting is: Musk's antics are turning off disproportionately Tesla buyers. Not sure if the inventory increases talked about in this article are related, but turning off customers couldn't come at a worse time. edit: Link to one of the articles: https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2022/8/1/musks-antics-turn-tesla-owners-new-buyers-against-it https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2022/8/1/musks-antics-turn...
ggm 4y ago
Devices which use 4 wheels to make progress and require a driver's licence probably should mostly be made by car companies. Devices which have huge batteries in them have synergies with battery manufacture and their supply chain dependency motivates co-ownership, sure. But a 400MwH battery stack in inter-modal containers on poured concrete plinths with frequency supply logic is not like a car. The NHTSA doesn't regulate voltage frequency in the public utility electricity market. Panasonic or somebody like them co-own the battery smarts as I understand it. Tesla as a company made some incredible innovations in manufacturing. So did Carl Borgward, but his name only lives on in Borg-Warner automatic clutches. Teslas giant stamping machines, and battery in the monocoque are interesting, as is the BMS and the motors. That's discrete patents which could be licenced. Self driving is bullshit oversold right now. Glass only cockpit has been proven to be less functional than real buttons and levers. If you watch "Ford vs Ferrari" you get told about tractor manufacturers. Maybe more Volvo trucks will exist than Volvo cars or even polestar. Tesla could live on as a division of VAG and we'd be fine as a global car driving economy. If Boeing acquire space/x I'd be more worried about what happens next frankly. Musk is a trained monkey. He's past end of life as an asset to a worldwide car manufacturing enterprise and if they can work out how to put him under the same deal Brittney Spears got, somebody will. Hyundai, BYD and MG (china) are already eating Tesla's lunch. When VAG get the ID.4 into mass production it will be a 25+ year story. Tesla has great margins right now but the $30,000 car kills that, and 400km range $30,000 cars will sell at volume.
daly 4y ago
Considering Tesla as "just another car company" misses the various lines of business it involves. Consider that it gets a lot of money from the energy business (e.g. joining Tesla powerwalls to substitute for peeker plants). It also makes a billion or so from selling carbon offsets to other car companies. It is moving into battery production at all stages. Independent of all that, you're confusing EVs with "just cars". This is a separate market segment, like the difference between microwaves (EVs) and gas ovens ("just cars"). And even if you consider it "just a car company" it is outrunning the other companies in efficiency. Tesla makes each car several times faster than conventional cars. Tesla fixes most recalls by software update. Tesla direct sales model skips the dealer overhead. Tesla chargers make gas stations obsolete. Tesla chargers cost 10x less to install than other chargers. Countries worldwide are passing end-of-life legislation to outlaw "just cars". Tesla doesn't have billions of dollars of "legacy factories" as debt burden. Tesla and BYD are the only two EV companies making a profit on each car sold. Legacy car companies are selling their cars at a loss per car. Given the rate of automation I expect that Tesla will have a "lights out" fully automated factory within a few years. A Tesla was driven off a 250 foot drop off a cliff last week onto rocks. The two parents are alive in hospital and the two children have minimal injury. My Hyundai Accent has a driver-side door dent because I "hip-checked" it closed. I can't imagine walking away from a 250 foot drop in my car.

5 points by clouddrover 4y ago

tamaharbor 4y ago

I will buy a Tesla at >600 mile range.

josephcsible 4y ago
How often do you drive 600 miles without stopping for lunch? And does the gas car you own now have that much range?
- tamaharbor 4y ago
  My wife and I do a lot of cross-country driving. 600 miles is our daily older-person driving limit. My greatest fear (at this time) is that the only charging station in town is backed up with a dozen cars in front of us. That would mess up our schedule big time.
quantified 4y ago
That'll about make up for the charging time to go 500 miles. It'd be nice to only need to pay for say 200 miles range with the base but easily rent the additional 400 miles of capacity for a long trip. That way, the unnecessary capacity isn't always weighing the car down, and the battery for it is more likely used for an actual long trip.

linsomniac 4y ago

Many people, myself included, thought the "TSLA valuation > other automakers" wasn't a reasonable comparison, because of the "Secret Master Plan" to be an energy company. But, over the last year, that master plan has gone MIA, making Tesla just another car company.

linsomniac 4y ago

Related reporting is: Musk's antics are turning off disproportionately Tesla buyers. Not sure if the inventory increases talked about in this article are related, but turning off customers couldn't come at a worse time. edit: Link to one of the articles: https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2022/8/1/musks-antics-turn-tesla-owners-new-buyers-against-it https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2022/8/1/musks-antics-turn...

ggm 4y ago

Devices which use 4 wheels to make progress and require a driver's licence probably should mostly be made by car companies. Devices which have huge batteries in them have synergies with battery manufacture and their supply chain dependency motivates co-ownership, sure. But a 400MwH battery stack in inter-modal containers on poured concrete plinths with frequency supply logic is not like a car. The NHTSA doesn't regulate voltage frequency in the public utility electricity market. Panasonic or somebody like them co-own the battery smarts as I understand it. Tesla as a company made some incredible innovations in manufacturing. So did Carl Borgward, but his name only lives on in Borg-Warner automatic clutches. Teslas giant stamping machines, and battery in the monocoque are interesting, as is the BMS and the motors. That's discrete patents which could be licenced. Self driving is bullshit oversold right now. Glass only cockpit has been proven to be less functional than real buttons and levers. If you watch "Ford vs Ferrari" you get told about tractor manufacturers. Maybe more Volvo trucks will exist than Volvo cars or even polestar. Tesla could live on as a division of VAG and we'd be fine as a global car driving economy. If Boeing acquire space/x I'd be more worried about what happens next frankly. Musk is a trained monkey. He's past end of life as an asset to a worldwide car manufacturing enterprise and if they can work out how to put him under the same deal Brittney Spears got, somebody will. Hyundai, BYD and MG (china) are already eating Tesla's lunch. When VAG get the ID.4 into mass production it will be a 25+ year story. Tesla has great margins right now but the $30,000 car kills that, and 400km range $30,000 cars will sell at volume.

daly 4y ago

Considering Tesla as "just another car company" misses the various lines of business it involves. Consider that it gets a lot of money from the energy business (e.g. joining Tesla powerwalls to substitute for peeker plants). It also makes a billion or so from selling carbon offsets to other car companies. It is moving into battery production at all stages. Independent of all that, you're confusing EVs with "just cars". This is a separate market segment, like the difference between microwaves (EVs) and gas ovens ("just cars"). And even if you consider it "just a car company" it is outrunning the other companies in efficiency. Tesla makes each car several times faster than conventional cars. Tesla fixes most recalls by software update. Tesla direct sales model skips the dealer overhead. Tesla chargers make gas stations obsolete. Tesla chargers cost 10x less to install than other chargers. Countries worldwide are passing end-of-life legislation to outlaw "just cars". Tesla doesn't have billions of dollars of "legacy factories" as debt burden. Tesla and BYD are the only two EV companies making a profit on each car sold. Legacy car companies are selling their cars at a loss per car. Given the rate of automation I expect that Tesla will have a "lights out" fully automated factory within a few years. A Tesla was driven off a 250 foot drop off a cliff last week onto rocks. The two parents are alive in hospital and the two children have minimal injury. My Hyundai Accent has a driver-side door dent because I "hip-checked" it closed. I can't imagine walking away from a 250 foot drop in my car.