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A theory which makes false predictions is false. Absolutely. Now please note the following simple logical step: > A theory which makes false predictions is n
by swombat 15y ago
A theory which makes false predictions is false.
Absolutely.
Now please note the following simple logical step:
> A theory which makes false predictions is not useful.
This is probably an assertion which is implicit in your mind, but is it really true? Off the top of my head, I can think of half a dozen cases where a theory which makes false predictions can be useful. It can be useful to motivate people, or manipulate them. It can be useful as a starting point for a better theory. It can be useful as an approximation when a better theory is not available. It can be useful as an argument to oppose someone with a different theory who is trying to manipulate people in a different direction.
Theories that make false predictions can be tremendously useful - even within the framework of science (as a starting point or an approximation).
- jerf 15y agoIt's a simplified POV for generic people's cognitive toolkits. If they can internalize this idea, then you can move on to trying them on the caveats and details and levels of falseness and etc etc etc. But way too often, the existence of caveats and details is used as an excuse to simply discard the undesirable theory, or to claim that theory A has caveats (example: "Newtonian physics isn't quite right") and theory B has caveats (example: epicycles), so why not just go with theory B? You're not wrong, but the more sophisticated approach you're suggesting is also more dangerous in its own way.