5 ms·

> It is unknown whether the CCP can survive any meaningful slowdown in growth Is what really peeved me. Besides wrapping an extreme opinion in "it is unknown

by cwkoss 4y ago

> It is unknown whether the CCP can survive any meaningful slowdown in growth Is what really peeved me. Besides wrapping an extreme opinion in "it is unknown whether", it is ridiculous to insinuate that China is on the verge of collapse. They have built more wealth this century than the US and Chinese median wages are rapidly approaching America's. Makes me wonder what nationalist propaganda has convinced that poster that America isn't an even-more dysfunctional basket case.

SilasX 4y ago
That would have been a better insight to share in a comment.
kurthr 4y ago
Umm, I won't comment on nationalist propaganda, but average annual wages in China are less than a quarter of the US or most industrialized countries while debt/GDB was 270% in 2020 and the last few years have not been kind (US including states is <150%). Gini statistic for China is also quite high, but since they don't release enough reliable data it's hard to tell exactly. https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/median-income-by-country https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/median-in...
- cwkoss 4y ago
  Average annual salary for Chinese people has increased by about 2.5x in the past 10 years: https://www.statista.com/statistics/278349/average-annual-salary-of-an-employee-in-china/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/278349/average-annual-sa... Average American income has increased by only 33% over a similar period: https://www.oberlo.com/statistics/average-us-income https://www.oberlo.com/statistics/average-us-income While wages in China are still only about 1/4 of US wages, 10 years ago it was 1/12th of US wages. If the trend continues, we should expect Chinese wages to reach parity with US wages in less than 15 years.
  - kurthr 4y ago
    If you believe that will happen, you should probably invest all your money there. I'll note that in your chart the wage growth rate has plummeted over the last 10 years, and that these are means not medians (meaning the US is $87k in 2021?). During the same 10y period China's debt grew by almost 200% accelerating and the US about 30%. I worked in China for almost 20 years. When I first arrived bicycles dominated the streets of Beijing. Amazing to watch it grow. I would not speculate there on anything longer than a 3-6month time horizon. I'll note that most Chinese that can do not invest there either.
    - dirtyid 4y ago
      I think this is conflating national debt with aggregate debt, which a lot of western reporting has mixed up and for some reason continues to repeat. In 2020, PRC national debt was ~55% (+20% in 10 years) of GDP vs US was ~140% (+40% in 10 years), total aggregate debt ~270% vs US ~800%. Some 2022 stats suggest US national debt is down to ~120% this year somehow and aggregate down to 780%, which I won't pretend to understand why. With respect to income inequity / wage. Yeah PRC far behind, it's a stratified system by design (rural/coastal divide). If you look at something like quantiles, US quantile means was 10k/25k/42k/66k/142k in 2010, and 15k/40k/68k/110k/254k in 2020 [0]. Everyone doing better, but top 2 quantiles are killing it. PRC is roughly this chart, which ... tells fairly similar story: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DG9cUdeXkAAszMz?format=jpg&name=small https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DG9cUdeXkAAszMz?format=jpg&name=... The TLDR is PRC is still vastly poorer in terms of house hold incomes, but growing rapidly, and like US, top half / top 2 quantiles are getting disproportionate growth, although PRC bottom is growing more relative than US bottom but they're still poor as dirt, even in PPP terms. There was recent study trying to illustrate PRC income disparity increased under Xi, but actual data show something like top 1% got crushed, and a lot of growth was redistributed to top 30-40%. Again, IMO by design, it's more important to build up skilled middle/upper income class of 300-400 million that can compete with west, top 1% can get fucked while bottom 60% get some common prosperity "scraps" to keep the peace. Other caveat is wealth, since PRC has most household savings, locked up in speculative real estate which is hard to compare especially with different social safety nets etc. [0] https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/statistics/household-income-quintiles https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/statistics/household-income-... >When I first arrived bicycles dominated the streets of Beijing. Amazing to watch it grow It's nice to hear from the rare 90s expat that saw that phase of BJ growth.
- DiogenesKynikos 4y ago
  On debt, you're not comparing apples to apples. Chinese national debt is relatively low: around 70% of GDP. I don't know how you're getting to 270%, but I suspect you're lumping together all public and private debts in China, including by private companies and households. In particular, it sounds like you're quoting something like total credit to the non-financial sector. Total debt to GDP in China is not that different from the US.

by cwkoss 4y ago

SilasX 4y ago

That would have been a better insight to share in a comment.

kurthr 4y ago

Umm, I won't comment on nationalist propaganda, but average annual wages in China are less than a quarter of the US or most industrialized countries while debt/GDB was 270% in 2020 and the last few years have not been kind (US including states is <150%). Gini statistic for China is also quite high, but since they don't release enough reliable data it's hard to tell exactly. https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/median-income-by-country https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/median-in...

cwkoss 4y ago
Average annual salary for Chinese people has increased by about 2.5x in the past 10 years: https://www.statista.com/statistics/278349/average-annual-salary-of-an-employee-in-china/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/278349/average-annual-sa... Average American income has increased by only 33% over a similar period: https://www.oberlo.com/statistics/average-us-income https://www.oberlo.com/statistics/average-us-income While wages in China are still only about 1/4 of US wages, 10 years ago it was 1/12th of US wages. If the trend continues, we should expect Chinese wages to reach parity with US wages in less than 15 years.
- kurthr 4y ago
  If you believe that will happen, you should probably invest all your money there. I'll note that in your chart the wage growth rate has plummeted over the last 10 years, and that these are means not medians (meaning the US is $87k in 2021?). During the same 10y period China's debt grew by almost 200% accelerating and the US about 30%. I worked in China for almost 20 years. When I first arrived bicycles dominated the streets of Beijing. Amazing to watch it grow. I would not speculate there on anything longer than a 3-6month time horizon. I'll note that most Chinese that can do not invest there either.
  - dirtyid 4y ago
    I think this is conflating national debt with aggregate debt, which a lot of western reporting has mixed up and for some reason continues to repeat. In 2020, PRC national debt was ~55% (+20% in 10 years) of GDP vs US was ~140% (+40% in 10 years), total aggregate debt ~270% vs US ~800%. Some 2022 stats suggest US national debt is down to ~120% this year somehow and aggregate down to 780%, which I won't pretend to understand why. With respect to income inequity / wage. Yeah PRC far behind, it's a stratified system by design (rural/coastal divide). If you look at something like quantiles, US quantile means was 10k/25k/42k/66k/142k in 2010, and 15k/40k/68k/110k/254k in 2020 [0]. Everyone doing better, but top 2 quantiles are killing it. PRC is roughly this chart, which ... tells fairly similar story: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DG9cUdeXkAAszMz?format=jpg&name=small https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DG9cUdeXkAAszMz?format=jpg&name=... The TLDR is PRC is still vastly poorer in terms of house hold incomes, but growing rapidly, and like US, top half / top 2 quantiles are getting disproportionate growth, although PRC bottom is growing more relative than US bottom but they're still poor as dirt, even in PPP terms. There was recent study trying to illustrate PRC income disparity increased under Xi, but actual data show something like top 1% got crushed, and a lot of growth was redistributed to top 30-40%. Again, IMO by design, it's more important to build up skilled middle/upper income class of 300-400 million that can compete with west, top 1% can get fucked while bottom 60% get some common prosperity "scraps" to keep the peace. Other caveat is wealth, since PRC has most household savings, locked up in speculative real estate which is hard to compare especially with different social safety nets etc. [0] https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/statistics/household-income-quintiles https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/statistics/household-income-... >When I first arrived bicycles dominated the streets of Beijing. Amazing to watch it grow It's nice to hear from the rare 90s expat that saw that phase of BJ growth.
DiogenesKynikos 4y ago
On debt, you're not comparing apples to apples. Chinese national debt is relatively low: around 70% of GDP. I don't know how you're getting to 270%, but I suspect you're lumping together all public and private debts in China, including by private companies and households. In particular, it sounds like you're quoting something like total credit to the non-financial sector. Total debt to GDP in China is not that different from the US.