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>Someone investing at age 18 might care about the subsequent 50 years Those 50 years are part of the next 150, and are no easier to forecast. Most market proj
by itsoktocry 4y ago
>Someone investing at age 18 might care about the subsequent 50 years
Those 50 years are part of the next 150, and are no easier to forecast. Most market projections are for numbers ~7% annually, but periods worse than that would drastically alter investing plans, and hence social infrastructure planning.
- JustSomeNobody 4y agoThat is why https://www.firecalc.com/ https://www.firecalc.com/ exists. The idea is that you save enough that over all the possible starting years, you would end up with money instead of broke, for the length of time you think you'll be alive.
- kudokatz 4y agoIt's my understanding that firecalc uses only US data. Japan has "lost decades" of price-weighted, non-dividend returns that are flat since 1988 (Nikkei 225). Seems worth considering that some version of this has some future probability of happening in the US and hedging that. Another similar and popular US-data-only tool that is fun to play with is cFIREsim: https://www.cfiresim.com/ https://www.cfiresim.com/ (Edit: of course, US companies have non-US revenues - helps out a bit)
- JustSomeNobody 4y agoYes, that's a risk. If that happens, most of us simply won't ever retire. Yay capitalism?
- paganel 4y ago> Most market projections are for numbers ~7% annually, Too lazy to web search for an answer, but are those real returns? (i.e. inflation-adjusted).