4 ms·

As if he isn't just guessing like anyone else. When can we stop printing headlines about random people's stock market predictions? There should be a website tha

As if he isn't just guessing like anyone else. When can we stop printing headlines about random people's stock market predictions? There should be a website that gathers these headlines for display along a timeline of various economic indicators.

partiallypro 4y ago
He isn't a random person, he's the CEO of one of the biggest companies on Earth, of course he will have some more insight into his own industry than some random person here or elsewhere. Stocks don't have to go up even during a decent economy, we've lived in a unique era where they have, but that hasn't always been the case.
- windowshopping 4y ago
  I strongly disagree. You could find a thousand headlines of executives making market predictions that were completely wrong. This is a total illusion. Two years? Man that's an eternity. Imagine making a two-year prediction in 1999 (dot-com crash, 9/11), 2007 (recession, series of financial catastrophes), 2015 (trump elected), 2019 (covid)...
  - sottol 4y ago
    These companies have huge swathes of cash that need to be managed. Google for example has a large team of (renowned, fwiw) economists, among them Hal Varian [1], doing among other things revenue forecasts which would take the state of the economy into account. I would hazard a guess that MS (and thus its CEO) does have more insight into the economy than a random person. Does absolutely not mean that economists are necessarily great at forecasting, but they are professionals fwiw. [1] https://www.quora.com/What-do-economists-do-at-Google-their-responsibilities-as-Googles-employees https://www.quora.com/What-do-economists-do-at-Google-their-...
- itsdrewmiller 4y ago
  CEOs have a much stronger motive to predict things that are convenient for their company than they have secret insights or expertise about the global economy.
  - twelve40 4y ago
    He could be lying through his teeth for all i know, but that still isn't random, is it?

partiallypro 4y ago

He isn't a random person, he's the CEO of one of the biggest companies on Earth, of course he will have some more insight into his own industry than some random person here or elsewhere. Stocks don't have to go up even during a decent economy, we've lived in a unique era where they have, but that hasn't always been the case.

windowshopping 4y ago
I strongly disagree. You could find a thousand headlines of executives making market predictions that were completely wrong. This is a total illusion. Two years? Man that's an eternity. Imagine making a two-year prediction in 1999 (dot-com crash, 9/11), 2007 (recession, series of financial catastrophes), 2015 (trump elected), 2019 (covid)...
- sottol 4y ago
  These companies have huge swathes of cash that need to be managed. Google for example has a large team of (renowned, fwiw) economists, among them Hal Varian [1], doing among other things revenue forecasts which would take the state of the economy into account. I would hazard a guess that MS (and thus its CEO) does have more insight into the economy than a random person. Does absolutely not mean that economists are necessarily great at forecasting, but they are professionals fwiw. [1] https://www.quora.com/What-do-economists-do-at-Google-their-responsibilities-as-Googles-employees https://www.quora.com/What-do-economists-do-at-Google-their-...
itsdrewmiller 4y ago
CEOs have a much stronger motive to predict things that are convenient for their company than they have secret insights or expertise about the global economy.
- twelve40 4y ago
  He could be lying through his teeth for all i know, but that still isn't random, is it?