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Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella says there's 2 more years of pain before tech rally
- windowshopping 4y agoAs if he isn't just guessing like anyone else. When can we stop printing headlines about random people's stock market predictions? There should be a website that gathers these headlines for display along a timeline of various economic indicators.
- partiallypro 4y agoHe isn't a random person, he's the CEO of one of the biggest companies on Earth, of course he will have some more insight into his own industry than some random person here or elsewhere. Stocks don't have to go up even during a decent economy, we've lived in a unique era where they have, but that hasn't always been the case.
- windowshopping 4y agoI strongly disagree. You could find a thousand headlines of executives making market predictions that were completely wrong. This is a total illusion. Two years? Man that's an eternity. Imagine making a two-year prediction in 1999 (dot-com crash, 9/11), 2007 (recession, series of financial catastrophes), 2015 (trump elected), 2019 (covid)...
- sottol 4y agoThese companies have huge swathes of cash that need to be managed. Google for example has a large team of (renowned, fwiw) economists, among them Hal Varian [1], doing among other things revenue forecasts which would take the state of the economy into account. I would hazard a guess that MS (and thus its CEO) does have more insight into the economy than a random person. Does absolutely not mean that economists are necessarily great at forecasting, but they are professionals fwiw. [1] https://www.quora.com/What-do-economists-do-at-Google-their-responsibilities-as-Googles-employees https://www.quora.com/What-do-economists-do-at-Google-their-...
- itsdrewmiller 4y agoCEOs have a much stronger motive to predict things that are convenient for their company than they have secret insights or expertise about the global economy.
- twelve40 4y agoHe could be lying through his teeth for all i know, but that still isn't random, is it?
- halfmatthalfcat 4y agoIt's interesting that last summer Elon said he had "a really bad feeling" and now Satya is making economic predictions. How much information to these tech companies really have were they can extract/forecast economic trends?
- moneywoes 4y agoOr maybe they influence these negative downturns to implement cost cutting
- spankalee 4y agoI think the cloud, ads, search, and very large ecommerce companies have a lot of economic data and a lot more realtime than most other organizations. Imagine the picture you can put together if you see trends in cloud usage and orders, ad buys, search trends for shopping and other econ indicators (layoffs, unemployment, job hunting, COBRA), and actual shopping transaction volume. Many of these you can see change by the minute.
- Ekaros 4y agoMicrosoft probably have also pretty good idea just how many computers running their operating system is being sold or licensed. What are the licensing numbers for Office suite and 365. Outlook and AD seats, Teams. They should actually have pretty unique view to just about how most companies on the planet or in at the least in the West are doing or looking to do from employee numbers.
- smalley 4y agoI would imagine most of the very large companies have a treasury group that's managing their excess cash etc and that those people are probably offering lots of opinions on general economic direction. Couple that with contact with lots of their peer group doing the same, the economic consulting groups they're all hiring and contact with a bunch of bankers and I'd assume they'd start feeling they have an opinion. Add to that what they see in their own business when they're broad enough and I'd see why they'd start expounding on the topic
- 4y ago
- dmix 4y agoThat website is everything that's bad with news websites, but all in one site.
- rmnwski 4y agoIf he ~knew~ it was two years, wouldn’t he start taking action against that, making it less than two years? Sounds like random bs guess imho.
- readonlybarbie 4y ago[dead]
- mandelbrotwurst 4y agoWhat action could he take that would substantially shorten the duration of a nationwide economic downturn?
- Neil44 4y agoMaybe he's trying to create that reality by making this statement now. i.e. a self-fulfilling prophecy.
- listless 4y agoIf I’ve learned anything in the past 2.5 years, it’s that nobody can predict the stock market. You might as well be telling me the exact day Jesus is going to return.
- laidoffamazon 4y agoWeird that this got on the front page but there weren't any submissions about the historically low unemployment rate. Perhaps there's a negativity bias on this forum?
- __derek__ 4y agoI suspect that it's the forum's tech-centricity more than anything. After a decade-plus of tech outrunning the broader economy, the roles have reversed, and folks in the industry don't know what to make of it.
- throw93 4y agoJust a guess, that's all this is. Year 2022 has taught us that even the most worshipped CEOs are not necessarily as smart as people like to think. Zuckerberg thought Metaverse was a great idea, Musk thought buying twitter would be great and we already know what happened to Sam Fried. We need to stop worshipping CEOs like they are gods. They exist just to maximize company's bottomline and minimize workers pay.
- twelve40 4y agoi don't really worship anybody like that, but some of the people you dumped into the same category were scammers, others have actually built something very concrete of value. Satya, as far as I know, managed to turn Microsoft around after a very bizarre rule of Ballmer, so I know he's not a complete idiot and probably has something interesting to say.
- seydor 4y agoWhy the wholly negative reaction to this mild mannered comment? It is even flagged now. I think the overreaction here is more interesting than what Nadella said