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I’m not trying to be confrontational, but I do need to say something on this comment and hopes for some good discussion. How much of that is due to actual drop

I’m not trying to be confrontational, but I do need to say something on this comment and hopes for some good discussion. How much of that is due to actual drops in crime levels and how much of it is due to decriminalization of offenses and a the resultant drop in crimes reported? Both the Uniform Crime Reporting Program from the FBI and the Bureau of Justice Statistics’ National Crime Victimization Survey have methodological have problems. There isn’t even a consensus between when about what constitutes criminal activity. And in some jurisdictions, only incarceration worthy crimes are considered ‘crime,’ where as in others fined infractions like speeding in a vehicle count. To say nothing of the tendency of crime data to suddenly regress towards the mean, which has been a problem for researchers. I am wary to accept short term crime statistics, because it’s so politicized. There’s a great discussion here, though it’s a tad dated: https://www.wnycstudios.org/podcasts/otm/segments/when-crime-data-becomes-politicized https://www.wnycstudios.org/podcasts/otm/segments/when-crime...

ceejayoz 4y ago
> how much of it is due to decriminalization of offenses and a the resultant drop in crimes reported? Which violent crimes have been decriminalized?
- happytiger 4y ago
  I mean isn’t not prosecuting properly the same effect? If that’s the case I’d say sexual assault is often viewed as efffectively decriminalized. I don’t know what I’d like to know on these subjects, to be perfectly honest. I’m still learning and didn’t wade into HN today to spread my perfect knowledge on the subject. Hope there is still room for that. Here’s what got me thinking about the whole subject in the first place: https://scholars.law.unlv.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1834&context=nlj https://scholars.law.unlv.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=18... https://rapecrisis.org.uk/get-informed/the-decriminalisation-of-rape/ https://rapecrisis.org.uk/get-informed/the-decriminalisation...
lsy 4y ago
Another angle: how much non-reporting is due to mistrust of police, and how much is due to police explicitly telling crime victims not to report or that a report will be useless, because they are trying to politically undermine a progressive DA? But I think there need to be actual studies on reporting rates and reasons for non-reporting before too much pure speculation is applied to dismiss these statistics. People have been making arguments close to the above for years if not decades, at some point one would assume the reporting rate would stabilize.
- seneca 4y ago
  > how much is due to police explicitly telling crime victims not to report or that a report will be useless, because they are trying to politically undermine a progressive DA? I'll go ahead and suggest something like zero. This is a conspiracy theory.

ceejayoz 4y ago

> how much of it is due to decriminalization of offenses and a the resultant drop in crimes reported? Which violent crimes have been decriminalized?

happytiger 4y ago
I mean isn’t not prosecuting properly the same effect? If that’s the case I’d say sexual assault is often viewed as efffectively decriminalized. I don’t know what I’d like to know on these subjects, to be perfectly honest. I’m still learning and didn’t wade into HN today to spread my perfect knowledge on the subject. Hope there is still room for that. Here’s what got me thinking about the whole subject in the first place: https://scholars.law.unlv.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1834&context=nlj https://scholars.law.unlv.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=18... https://rapecrisis.org.uk/get-informed/the-decriminalisation-of-rape/ https://rapecrisis.org.uk/get-informed/the-decriminalisation...

lsy 4y ago

Another angle: how much non-reporting is due to mistrust of police, and how much is due to police explicitly telling crime victims not to report or that a report will be useless, because they are trying to politically undermine a progressive DA? But I think there need to be actual studies on reporting rates and reasons for non-reporting before too much pure speculation is applied to dismiss these statistics. People have been making arguments close to the above for years if not decades, at some point one would assume the reporting rate would stabilize.

seneca 4y ago
> how much is due to police explicitly telling crime victims not to report or that a report will be useless, because they are trying to politically undermine a progressive DA? I'll go ahead and suggest something like zero. This is a conspiracy theory.