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I liked Richard Dawkins' pick of the double-blind experiment. However, the significance of it for the lay person is entirely in why it is necessary. The conce
by dkarl 15y ago
I liked Richard Dawkins' pick of the double-blind experiment. However, the significance of it for the lay person is entirely in why it is necessary. The concept itself is only a consequence. It's nice for people to know what a double-blind experiment is, but it doesn't give them an instant ability to evaluate scientific research. Even double-blind experiments can be flawed, and you wouldn't want people thinking they could trust the validity of a study just because it's double-blind. If consumers and voters started demanding double-blind experiments, advertisers and other liars would have no problem producing misleading results from double-blind studies.
No, the significance of double-blind studies is in why scientists have to go to such extraordinary lengths to escape bias. The ways bias can influence judgment and can be communicated subconsciously between people are pretty amazing, and they justify the skepticism that scientifically literate people take for granted but other people take for unreasonable stubbornness. "My uncle has seen ghosts, my cousin has seen ghosts, and I just told you I saw a ghost. Why don't you believe in ghosts? You just refuse to believe because paranormal phenomena are embarrassing to your narrow scientific worldview."
To help people understand why scientifically literate people think they way they do, we need to tell them stories about how bias affects experiments and leads to bogus results. In his essay about cargo cult science, Richard Feynman tells a great story about an experimenter who discovered an unexpected source of bias in an experimental setup for rats running a maze. That's a perfect example for the general scientific audience, for whom rats running mazes is an icon of objective quantitative science, but the general public needs examples where psychological bias creates results that they personally know to be important and know to be false. Understanding those stories will give them a completely new outlook on the information they take in every day.
Also, the stories need to put people in a serious frame of mind. No matter what their level of ignorance, people have enough meta-cognitive sophistication to worry that if they absorb our scientific skepticism they will miss out on a lot of fun things. They like believing in ghosts. They like believing in aliens. They like believing that there are extraordinary things in the world that are as accessible to them as science and technology are to the nerds. We're trying to rob them of their fun. Sure, they can still play at believing, but it won't be quite as thrilling. (It really is just as fun to watch The X-Files or read Harry Potter when you're scientifically literate, but I don't think they'd believe us if we told them :-) Also, it's a lot less fun to listen to your friends tell stories about how they saw a ghost in the Winchester Mystery House and how they know it was real because the tour guide knew what it looked like without being told because other people had seen the same one. Sigh.)
To get around resistance to the lifeless, booooring scientific worldview, we need something awful to shake people out of that fun frame of mind. Children dying of cancer because of biased studies, something like that. Even better, children getting abducted and molested. TV news shows know how to make people pay attention; let's put their techniques to good use. Unfortunately, my scientific education stopped after my sophomore year of college, so I'll leave it up to others to provide concrete examples ;-)
- buss 15y agoJust making people aware that any cognitive biases exist would be a huge win.
- mcobrien 15y agoWhenever I'm pretty sure of a hunch I have, I like to review this list to remember how utterly useless human cognition is: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases
- radiowave 15y agoStuart Sutherland's book, "Irrationality", is about as concise and readable an account of these as you could wish for. My New Year's resolution (last year) was to always make a New Year's resolution to re-read it that year, because the insights tend to slip away with time.
- Symmetry 15y agoNot necessarily. If a person uses their knowledge of biases only to look for them in other people, it can make them less rational by making them less open to opposing points of view. http://lesswrong.com/lw/he/knowing_about_biases_can_hurt_people/ http://lesswrong.com/lw/he/knowing_about_biases_can_hurt_peo... And for some biases, e.g. anchoring bias telling someone explicitly that they ought to be resisting anchoring bias in an experiment doesn't seem to actually cause them to suffer from anchoring bias any less. There are some biases that can be eliminated this easily, but many that can't. Presumably you would need some sort of explicit training to resist anchoring bias.
- whatusername 15y agoIf you haven't seen it -- the story of the Clever Hans effect is a great example of why we need double blind experiments.
- chernevik 15y agoFeynman also noted that the rat-maze paper was almost never cited, which he took for a worrisome signal about psychology as a science.