The behavior of economic phenomena is far more complicated than the behavior of liquids or gases. Is predicting the result of a coin toss complicated? Analogy

The behavior of economic phenomena is far more complicated than the behavior of liquids or gases. Is predicting the result of a coin toss complicated? Analogy aside, I don't think one can compare the two. Economics deals with a huge (huge!) quantity of information in doing a prediction. If there was a human that could somehow process all the news, weather forecasts, CEO interviews and financial information, I don't think it would be that hard for him to make predictions, even on a global scale. The issue is that we attempt to capture all this complexity through a handful of insufficient abstractions. It works sometimes. Sometimes it doesn't, much like predicting the weather from a barometer. If all that information would be quantifiable numerically (syndicate pressure = 0.34) I'm confident that we would have good models and predictions. Models in economy share a lot of the pain of models in biology. In contrast, for predicting the detail of fluid turbulence or mathematical chaos, the problems are very easy to state, and there is very little information to process. Their mathematical solution and their numerical stability is what makes them complicated.