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Every time I read something like "are many decades away" and "less than one decade away" I ask myself if we have a prophet here... Since nobody knows what will

by pulse7 4y ago

Every time I read something like "are many decades away" and "less than one decade away" I ask myself if we have a prophet here... Since nobody knows what will be discovered today and tomorrow nobody can make claims that "something is many decades away". And on the other side, nobody can make claims for "less than one decade away", because some lunatic with the atomic bomb can stop the progress of an almost finished project... We can only speak about "probabilities" here...

macspoofing 4y ago
>We can only speak about "probabilities" here... Yeah but this is colloquial speech, the probabilities are there just implicit because it would be exhausting to make this explicit in everyday speech.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
DoughnutHole 4y ago
Investment is nothing but a game of probabilities. If it's true that self-driving is likely to be developed in the next 10 years than Tesla and Uber are good investments, because there's a reasonable chance of a world-changing, market-monopolising product making your investment incredibly profitable. If self-driving is unlikely in the near-term then Tesla and Uber are not so attractive - you're looking at investing in an overvalued electric car manufacturer with limited production and a money-pit taxi operator, respectively. If a moon-shot innovation like self-driving is still likely in the next 25 years then on the other hand there's not a whole lot of reason to believe that these companies are the one's that will get to capitalise on it, rather than the established (cheaper) manufacturers or some new upstart. There are far safer investments out there. All that's happened here is that people have lost faith that these companies are likely enough to develop a world-changing technology to justify their recent high stock prices.
- bluGill 4y ago
  What about them is market-monopolising? Cruise and Waymo both are working on self driving cars and making progress (those are ones I know, I'm sure there are others that I'm not aware of). The traditional taxi businesses are watching this, and won't sit still.

by pulse7 4y ago

macspoofing 4y ago

>We can only speak about "probabilities" here... Yeah but this is colloquial speech, the probabilities are there just implicit because it would be exhausting to make this explicit in everyday speech.

deleted 4y ago
[deleted]

DoughnutHole 4y ago

Investment is nothing but a game of probabilities. If it's true that self-driving is likely to be developed in the next 10 years than Tesla and Uber are good investments, because there's a reasonable chance of a world-changing, market-monopolising product making your investment incredibly profitable. If self-driving is unlikely in the near-term then Tesla and Uber are not so attractive - you're looking at investing in an overvalued electric car manufacturer with limited production and a money-pit taxi operator, respectively. If a moon-shot innovation like self-driving is still likely in the next 25 years then on the other hand there's not a whole lot of reason to believe that these companies are the one's that will get to capitalise on it, rather than the established (cheaper) manufacturers or some new upstart. There are far safer investments out there. All that's happened here is that people have lost faith that these companies are likely enough to develop a world-changing technology to justify their recent high stock prices.

bluGill 4y ago
What about them is market-monopolising? Cruise and Waymo both are working on self driving cars and making progress (those are ones I know, I'm sure there are others that I'm not aware of). The traditional taxi businesses are watching this, and won't sit still.