3 ms·

Cathie Wood is not going to like this. I think her bear case is TSLA is a $7T company by 2026. I can’t say I agree with her.

GalenErso 4y ago
The entire worldwide car industry won't be worth 7 trillion dollars in 2026.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- snordgren 4y ago
  Car companies were asleep at the wheel before Tesla. Selling EVs is perfect because they have lower OpEx at the cost of a higher CapEx. Higher CapEx means more revenue for the car manufacturers, and higher valuations in the long run if they can maintain their profit margin. Car manufacturing will be a more valuable industry as EVs become the standard, but definitely not fast enough to quadruple the value of the industry in a handful of years. Not unless we start overvaluing every company like Tesla.
sidibe 4y ago
She is amazing, somehow manages to take Elon at his word on everything when even his biggest fans use phrases like "Elon time" Her valuation makes sense if you think Tesla's going to dominate the car industry and robotaxi and displace truckers with FSD and have Tesla robots replace all factory workers and nurse, rent out the supreme dojo chips to the whole world, etc.
- ericmay 4y ago
  A good thing to remember here is that most of the media-based investing is the product that Wall Street* sells. Cathie Woods' job is marketing and sales. She needs to make "big bets" or say outlandish things because her market niche is hyper-focused on tech futurism. She'll take her carry and move on with her life and so long as she can always move the goalposts people will continue to invest based on that marketing. Once 2026 and Tesla isn't a $7 trillion company (though I personally think it still has massive upside if Elon quit being a fucking lunatic) she can say the pandemic or Twitter or something stymied the growth and it's actually 2036 now that it'll be a $7 trillion company and so invest now! Etc. etc. * This is an oversimplification and financial firms do provide very valuable services and products to customers and clients around the world.

GalenErso 4y ago

The entire worldwide car industry won't be worth 7 trillion dollars in 2026.

deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
snordgren 4y ago
Car companies were asleep at the wheel before Tesla. Selling EVs is perfect because they have lower OpEx at the cost of a higher CapEx. Higher CapEx means more revenue for the car manufacturers, and higher valuations in the long run if they can maintain their profit margin. Car manufacturing will be a more valuable industry as EVs become the standard, but definitely not fast enough to quadruple the value of the industry in a handful of years. Not unless we start overvaluing every company like Tesla.

sidibe 4y ago

She is amazing, somehow manages to take Elon at his word on everything when even his biggest fans use phrases like "Elon time" Her valuation makes sense if you think Tesla's going to dominate the car industry and robotaxi and displace truckers with FSD and have Tesla robots replace all factory workers and nurse, rent out the supreme dojo chips to the whole world, etc.

ericmay 4y ago
A good thing to remember here is that most of the media-based investing is the product that Wall Street* sells. Cathie Woods' job is marketing and sales. She needs to make "big bets" or say outlandish things because her market niche is hyper-focused on tech futurism. She'll take her carry and move on with her life and so long as she can always move the goalposts people will continue to invest based on that marketing. Once 2026 and Tesla isn't a $7 trillion company (though I personally think it still has massive upside if Elon quit being a fucking lunatic) she can say the pandemic or Twitter or something stymied the growth and it's actually 2036 now that it'll be a $7 trillion company and so invest now! Etc. etc. * This is an oversimplification and financial firms do provide very valuable services and products to customers and clients around the world.