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Two counterpoints I'd raise, in case they can help broaden your perspective: - Industry wide layoffs != Mistake. By analogy, think about naturally occurring fo
by strgcmc 4y ago
Two counterpoints I'd raise, in case they can help broaden your perspective:
- Industry wide layoffs != Mistake. By analogy, think about naturally occurring forest fires. Vast majority of ecologists would agree that such fires are healthy and necessary for the long term health of forest biomes. It's not a "mistake" for the trees or brush to become dense when energy or water is plentiful, and it's not wrong for a fire to destroy much of existing forest (allowing new and different growth in the future). So it is with business cycles and investment hypotheses.
- There are many accidental products or inventions, that proved more popular and durable than anyone could reasonably expect. Have you heard the story of how champagne was invented? Dom Perignon (yes the actual historical figure) was a French monk in the 17th century, tasked by the Catholic Church to solve the problem of wine fermentation that resulted in too much carbonation in the Champagne region, since the local climate was such that winter was too cold and the fermentation process was naturally interrupted by winter there in such a way as to introduce unwanted carbon dioxide. Wine with carbonation was considered undesirable, but Dom Perignon tweaked the process (inventing the "French method") in such a way as to invent a drink that consumers surprisingly found preferable (remember, nobody originally wanted carbonated wine at the time). The point of this story is that, there's no way to truly know what becomes a lasting trend or a change in consumer tastes; maybe people really would continue to shop and consume media online at higher rates even post-pandemic because they truly changed their tastes and liked it more, after being forced to do it by pandemic? How could anyone know that carbonated wine would stick around, when nobody had ever shown any interest in it before?