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This article and the IEA sources that they rely on assumes that an EV is a car. That’s not a good assumption: electric bicycles and trikes like the Aptera are m
by bertil 4y ago
This article and the IEA sources that they rely on assumes that an EV is a car. That’s not a good assumption: electric bicycles and trikes like the Aptera are much better direction for the vast majority of individual transport.
At that size, you can rely on smaller batteries and solar panels for many journeys (it isn’t fully sufficient for an Aptera but an e-bicycle with a small roof can ride as long as the Sun shines).
Using three tons vehicles for long-distance journeys or for the transport of goods isn’t efficient: trains (and last-mile delivery on cargo bikes) are a lot more economical in both energy, accident risk and individual time (or vehicle investment if you assume an autonomous future).
If we don’t use the energy transition to shift away from the domination of heavy, polluting, deadly cars, we would have lost an opportunity.
- stby 4y agoI agree with anything you said. At this point I'm already happy when the media doesn't try to praise drones (Volocopter, Lilium, Joby, ...) as the ultimate solution to our traffic problems, unfortunately.
- malfist 4y agoAptera is a thing again? I remember reading about it when I was in high school over a decade ago. I thought they smashed their prototypes and went bankrupt?
- apocalyptic0n3 4y agoTheir homepage is claiming up to "40 miles of solar powered driving per day" and "1,000 miles on a single charge". Even given the size and layout of the vehicle, that seems impressive as heck if true. It's in reservation stages for ~$26k, which is also not bad.
- malfist 4y agoWhen I was in college, the car was being advertised as 100 MPG. The car looks virtually the same, if you can get 100MPG you can probably get insane ranges without huge batteries. It's basically a motorcycle on three wheels, those things have great milage.
- vel0city 4y ago> It's basically a motorcycle on three wheels, those things have great milage. The mileage really varies on a lot of things. Cruising on the highway with some side cases and a little bit of gear I usually only get like 35ish MPG on my 1050cc bike, into the low 40s without any cases and with my windshield fully down/off. Fully loaded with camping stuff I'd only get like 30mpg. My 650cc bike with some cases as well got like 40ish, mid 40s without any cases, but really didn't have enough power to feel great when needing to overtake on highways with big trucks. Some really small motorcycles will get into the 80s, but its really not a given that motorcycles have high mileage numbers.
- danans 4y agoI agree that on highways motorcycles' horrible drag (easily 2x of cars) results in terrible fuel economy considering their size. Around town at low speeds (therefore drag is negligible), size becomes an asset, and a small motorcycle or scooter can get very good fuel economy, assuming it doesn't have an insanely overpowered engine. An electric motorcycle or scooter around town is extremely efficient. For example, the Arcimoto (https://www.arcimoto.com/ https://www.arcimoto.com/) gets 5.5 miles/kWh. The Aptera (which blurs the line between motorcycle and car) gets 10 miles/kWh! By comparison the Model 3 (the most efficient current mass market EV) gets 4 miles/kWh.
- dagw 4y agoThe original Aptera went bankrupt a decade ago. However couple of the original cofounders managed to get some funding to buy back the name and some of the original IP and restarted the company a couple of years ago.
- trabant00 4y ago> Using three tons vehicles for long-distance journeys or for the transport of goods isn’t efficient: trains (and last-mile delivery on cargo bikes) are a lot more economical That sounds intuitive to me but the fact that train tickets are so expensive on long distances (more than twice than if you travel alone in a car) makes me think it's not the case.
- bertil 4y agoThe price difference is because the vast majority of costs for car transport (direct, like road maintenance and indirect, like millions of people dying because of pollution) are handled by the state. Trains can easily be much cheaper as most costs are fixed and they can handle orders of magnitude more traffic without congestion.
- qudat 4y ago> That sounds intuitive to me but the fact that train tickets are so expensive on long distances (more than twice than if you travel alone in a car) makes me think it's not the case. Have you factored in all the costs associated with owning a vehicle (e.g. cost of purchase, maintenance, etc)?
- tyho 4y agoYep, train travel in the UK is more expensive than driving under any circumstances by at least a factor of two or three other than when commuting into London, where parking charges make the economics work.
- bertil 4y agoYou don’t include the health cost of pollution and the cost of accidents: healthcare and loss of life make driving far more expensive. That cost is not paid for by the drivers at the moment.
- tyho 4y agoI'll give you the health costs and climate costs but the costs of accidents are paid by drivers through their insurance premiums.
- ZeroGravitas 4y agoRelated, recent Electrek video discussing the next moves for countries that have phased out ICE for EV, such as Norway: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0F6Bz-0EKA0 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0F6Bz-0EKA0
- logifail 4y ago> the next moves for countries that have phased out ICE for EV, such as Norway "Phasing", perhaps. "Phased", not yet... Approximately 19% of passenger cars in use in Norway are (pure) EV, with 7% plug-in hybrid and 5% conventional hybrid. That leaves 40% diesel and 30% petrol.[0] [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plug-in_electric_vehicles_in_Norway https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plug-in_electric_vehicles_in_N...
- rootusrootus 4y agoNorway has the luxury of exporting pollution the rest of the planet as a means of financing their pivot to green technology at home. Not every country can do that. Taken in isolation, it's an interesting case study in EVs, but I'd be careful about extrapolating too much.
- munchler 4y agoGood luck selling that idea (in America, at least).
- zppln 4y agoYou'll have great trouble selling that idea in many parts of Europe as well.
- rootusrootus 4y agoThere isn't any reason people in America couldn't choose such things. They just don't. If the selling of the idea is failing, maybe the idea is the problem and not the people you're selling it to.
- anthonypasq 4y agohow exactly would this work if you have multiple small children, or are disabled, or a variety of other things. Why is there this insistence that Americans are just 'big dumb'
- rootusrootus 4y agoYou're replying to the wrong person.
- EntropyIsAHoax 4y ago[dead]
- kaesar14 4y agoI find the city to be better for small children and for disabled people than car focused suburbs to be honest. It means stuff is closer to get to and both groups of people are not completely reliant on other people driving them around to get to places. I do not believe the only way a world can be livable for disabled people, small children, and elderly people, is to pave the entire country in tens of millions of miles of roads and drive on them with heavy and dangerous polluting machines.
- TeeMassive 4y agoAs I like to point out in most of these threads, not everyone live in a Californian-like climate.
- dabeeeenster 4y agoWait until you discover the dutch.
- bertil 4y agoBicycles are the most common form of transport where I live in Umeå, and in the two nearest cities, Oulu and Vaasa. I’ll let you check what the weather is like today. I’m not advocating bicycles to transport wood (the most common industry here) to the train.
- powerbroker 4y agoHah! I've been to Oulu. These people are hardy. Riding bikes in winter near the Arctic Circle is tough work. Yet the bike racks were full in January when I visited a few years ago.
- rhn_mk1 4y agoIt's not tougher than dressing up for going outside.
- scythe 4y agoHeat and rain are bigger barriers to bicycles than cold. You could make a case for ice, but you can address that at the infrastructure level. You can make a case for hills, but again, infrastructure (namely, minimizing grade and going around whenever possible). It's a lot easier to wear a coat than it is to wear an air conditioner; if Tw > 30, you are risking heat stroke by pedaling. California, except the far southeast, has generally cooler and much drier summers than most of the United States. Also, it's +2 in Umeå right now, which is warmer than I thought.
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- jgilias 4y agoIn theory. In practice the market has spoken as to what kind of a form-factor people find the most useful for personal transportation in different climates and economic development scenarios. There’s no reason why ICEs couldn’t have supported the kind of vehicles some people imagine other people need. The market has spoken, EVs only started gaining traction when they started resembling actual cars in form and function. Think of it as parallel evolution. Dolphins and fish.
- CalRobert 4y agoThe market is profoundly distorted by single use zoning, parking minimums, density maximums, wide (and high speed) stroads, and other urban design choices that force long journeys. It's also not safe to be on an ebike surrounded by electric Hummers, F-350 super duties, and your normal "whole kindergarten class in the blind spot" Escalades. Having just spent a week in Utrecht it's very clear that "the market" can certainly show a preference for ebikes over cars.
- rootusrootus 4y agoWhat's your justification for saying that it's the US with a profoundly distorted market and not places like Utrecht?
- akgerber 4y agoThe massive state, federal, and local bureaucracies shaping the public & private realm to always guarantee easy parking for automobiles & a network of high-throughput roadways between them yet only occasionally & reluctantly doing the same for other modes of transportation. Note that guaranteeing easy parking for automobiles also results in destinations being so far apart that other modes of transport usually become impractical.
- hannasanarion 4y agoHow about the fact that America's most walkable and transit-accessible neighborhoods are also the most expensive and highest demand? People want this kind of development, they flock to it, and they are willing to pay astronomically high prices to get it. The government keeps the supply low with exclusionary zoning that makes all types of construction except car-centric single family housing illegal.
- ssharp 4y agoThe Aptera is going to cost $30,000 (more than entry-level cars) and will only seat two people. I'm not really sure the appeal over an electric bike or motorcycle for an individual given the huge gulf in cost. This is not a good solution for most people who do not earn enough to justify an expense like that, even more so given the product is new and has a higher potential for being unreliable. There is also the problem of solving family transport, which has no good answer other than EVs. Although, for a lot of people, work-from-home has reduced their annual mileage several fold.
- pjmlp 4y agoSure, if one likes to enjoy cold, snow and arrive wet at work during Winter, or sharing body odors during Summertime, also assuming healthy enough to stay on a bicycles or trikes. And yes I know plenty of people do endure weather conditions for their two wheel drive, most never will unless forced to do so.
- goda90 4y agoThere are enclosed pedal assist vehicles out there that can keep you dry. A bit harder to park than regular bikes but that's not a hard problem to solve, just convert some car parking spots into something smaller.
- pjmlp 4y agoAt that point it is no better than using a car.
- bertil 4y agoI live in Umeå, Sweden. Most people here bike. I’m not entirely sure what your point is.
- pjmlp 4y agoBetween the age of 10 and 18 years old, biking was the only way to get anywhere, there were hardly any buses available, didn't had parents to drive me around at the pleasure of my wishes, and no money for taxi. I know pretty well what it means to cycle everywhere, regardless of weather conditions or not having a place to exchange clothes.
- nsonha 4y ago> bicycles and trikes like the <who cares> are much better direction for the vast majority of individual transport in your opinion? Better in what way? Does everyone think like you? Between your and their assumption, I personally think theirs sounds more realistic, they just assume the norm continues to be the norm.
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- irrational 4y agoIn theory, but that would also require changing how/where many people live (which would require a lot of construction which would require energy and concrete - both bad things for the environment). I’m thinking over my schedule today and needing to drive the kids places, often many miles away in different directions, plus going to work, running errands with multiple people, etc. Both a bike and a trike would be wildly inappropriate. Especially where I live where it rains steadily for 9 months of the year. A car is the only practical way to move around without somehow either having fewer people to move around, moving the places we need to go closer together, changing the weather or moving to a drier climate, etc. Frankly I would love it if that was a reality and everything was within easy walking or biking distance, but it simply doesn’t match reality as things are currently built.
- micromacrofoot 4y agoA cargo ebike is a game changer for all of this. I can bring 2 kids to school and do a full grocery trip without even breaking a sweat. I do 6 miles each way and since I avoid traffic it's just as fast as driving. Plenty of people bike all 4 seasons, the Netherlands is the go-to example... it rains a lot there. Driving to work under-dressed in a heated box is a luxury that's kind of harmed a lot of people's ability to know how to dress for the weather. It's not particularly difficult.
- dsfyu404ed 4y ago>A cargo ebike is a game changer for all of this Not so long as a "never in a lifetime on average" crash remains an acceptable justification to spend tens of thousands of dollars it's not. And that's ignoring weather and convenience.
- micromacrofoot 4y ago> Not so long as a "never in a lifetime on average" crash What does this mean?
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- sh1mmer 4y agoWith that logic you could also argue that much more will be needed for trucks and heavy equipment. I don’t know if it averages out, but I don’t think you can assume that less is needed not more, or the same as the article.
- notahacker 4y agoThe form factor of a motorbike has been around and more affordable than a car for a century now. I don't think it's the type of engine that makes the majority of people in the developed world prefer to spend substantially more money on vehicles which are considerably more stable and crash resistant, enclosed from the weather and with room for passengers and cargo. If they get e-bikes, they tend to get them as well which might reduce electricity use but requires even more batteries. And I say that as someone that's managed 18 years of adult life without owning a car or motorised bike living in a country with one of the densest (but still entirely unsuitable for most long distance journeys) rail networks around...
- prottog 4y ago> living in a country with one of the densest (but still entirely unsuitable for most long distance journeys) rail networks I'm very curious, what country has such a dense rail network that isn't very good for long distance journeys? Is it because it's in a hub-and-spoke system with the capital/largest city as the hub, and if you want to go from spoke to spoke it sucks?
- notahacker 4y agoThe UK. Lines interconnect all over. But that doesn't mean connections are possible when you want them and don't involve time padding and risk of not making them and sometimes completely illogical routes, and even with one of the world's highest densities of stations many places people want to go to don't have a station particularly nearby or a last mile solution that isn't a taxi. And no matter how good the end-to-end connections are, they're not suited to any journey involving non-trivial amounts of luggage. Compromises you may have to make include adding extra hours or overnight stops to journeys, taxis for the last mile or twenty, not having more than one bag's worth of luggage, or spending a lot more money than the equivalent journey by car even without the taxi/hotel bills. And not travelling at all when the rail workers are on strike, like today There are certain things train services are excellent at, like serving people's daily commute at predictable times into a congested city centre (with the caveat crowded trains aren't necessarily a pleasant experience) and letting you travel whilst drunk or putting the finishing touches to your presentation, but they're not going to eliminate many of the most common uses for cars.
- Gordonjcp 4y ago> trains (and last-mile delivery on cargo bikes) are a lot more economical in both energy, accident risk and individual time This works if you live in a perfectly flat country with completely contiguous landmass and no islands.
- fallingknife 4y ago> electric bicycles and trikes like the Aptera are much better direction for the vast majority of individual transport. If it doesn't ever get hot or cold where you live, or ever really rain, then yes. If an ebike works 90% of the time, then I'm getting the car. Might still get the bike, but I also have to have the car, and that will take just as much battery material as if I drive it 100% of the time.
- jgust 4y ago> e-bicycle with a small roof can ride as long as the Sun shines Is this true? I can go through a 630Wh battery in 2-3 hours of riding and I can't imagine current solar being able to keep up with that. I think you might get an extra ~30 minutes of riding, but not ~forever~ unless you mean pedal power.
- roamerz 4y ago>electric bicycles and trikes like the Aptera are much better direction for the vast majority of individual transport. I think a vast majority of people in the United States that choose to drive cars, suvs and pickups would disagree your assumption.
- whiddershins 4y agoPeople like cars and find them useful. Otherwise they wouldn’t spend inordinate amounts of money on them.
- bertil 4y agoPeople find the car they are in great because they are isolated from the people outside. People outside typically aren’t fans of the noise, the pollution, the million and a half deaths per year, the entitlement, and having most of our shared habitat dedicated to parking. It’s a classic case of not taking into account enormous externalities.
- rsj_hn 4y agoPeople also like when they can go to a coffee shop and the barista shows up, even when it's raining, and that the bags of coffee are delivered on time, and that their Amazon packages are delivered and that their local grocery is staffed by workers who may live far away and can commute to work and sell them tomatoes grown in South America delivered right to their local neighborhood, which were carried on trucks to the local port in Brazil before loaded onto ship, sailing to a nearby port, loaded onto a train, and then shipped by a truck to the grocery. They take it for granted that when their plumbing goes out, someone can quickly drive to their location and provide the necessary work to restore service. They take it all for granted that they are living in a modern industrial economy that is made possible by cars and trucks (and yes, also trains, ships, and planes). It's a classic case of not taking into account enormous externalities.
- gdcbe 4y agoOnly thing they I would counteract is that at least for those living in cities you aren’t necessary right. I used to own a car. More then a year ago we moved to a cargo bike (electric) which is enough for most of our needs. It can even have an extra trailer, so we can do all groceries and bring our kids with us, in safety and all weather conditions. Even visits to the recycling park are possible with it. When we do need a car we use a car sharing service for which i have a subscription and can take any type of car available at any time within walk or cycle distance from my house. As such i think city families probably are fine just owning a cargo bike (or two) and for long distance trips make use of a shared car (or train).
- option 4y agoNo, cars plus planes are much more convenient for travel than bikes and trains. That is definitely not to say that there is no place for bikes and trains. US certainly needs more of both. But please stop pretending that a family of 4 can go anywhere on bikes in the weather. Or even going to the beach with all gear in perfect weather. Just not going to happen.
- bertil 4y agoI can assure that anyone in a traffic jam disagrees with you–violently so. More roads aren’t a solution.
- option 4y agoI lived in European capital and I live in Bay Area, California now. I would take sitting in traffic jam in my car in comfort with audiobook and AC anytime over being in freaking people jam in subway. Especially during flu and covid waves.
- hedora 4y agoMore roads are the only solution, and have been for at least 4000 years. For those 4 millenia, people have gravitated to a 30 minute each way commute, on average. More roads implies bigger cities and more amenities / economic growth. If bikes mean more people can commute to the city, then they will eventually win.
- moonchrome 4y agoThe electric bike people really need to shut up with the activism. Electric bikes are more unsafe than motorcycles ! This is irregardless of infrastructure (eg. I checked stats in Netherlands which is cyclist utopia according to HN). I used to ride a motorcycle but I would never actively encourage someone to start it - it's just irresponsibly risky. If you chose to do it regardless (like I did) that's your choice - but me advocating it is like promoting smoking or alcoholism/drug abuse.
- bertil 4y agoThe unsafe part of an e-bike is the cars running people over. I agree with you: we should get rid of that part.
- moonchrome 4y agoThat's not true at all - driving on two wheels is inherently more dangerous, increasingly so the faster you go. Not to mention that the older/less fit you get the harder it is to react to these situations (tire slipping, hitting holes, stuff hitting you in the face, pedestrians jumping in front of you) I've said this before - if I put a child seat on a motorcycle I would get social services called instantly. Puting it on an e-bike and I'm a progressive hipster caring about the environment. The biking propaganda is getting ridiculous.
- adrianN 4y agoE-bikes have a top speed where crashes are rarely dangerous unless they involve a car.
- moonchrome 4y ago>Overall, the report concludes that the main culprit in all bicycle (regular and electric) injuries was the rider’s own behavior (44 percent) — a steering error, for example — while 32 percent was road conditions. And the majority of these accidents affected only the rider. Two-thirds of the 110,000 traffic victims treated in Dutch hospitals last year were cyclists, VeiligheidNL says. The survey was conducted with hospitalized riders between July 2020 and June 2021. https://www.theverge.com/2022/4/13/23023361/e-bike-injuries-increased-risk-netherlands https://www.theverge.com/2022/4/13/23023361/e-bike-injuries-... This is in Netherlands - Mecca of bicycle infrastructure. I mean how is this even controversial - riding on two wheels vs driving on 4 between a steel cage is inherently more dangerous - you have to be a zealot to deny that.
- brundolf 4y agoI think this is wishful thinking. People's preferences aren't going to change overnight (I don't see a reason this one would change at all), and manufacturers are already making a tough sell with EVs themselves, so they'll cater extra hard to other familiar things people already want The only way I see this changing is regulation, and that would be political suicide for whoever pushed it in the US (the main place where it would be relevant)