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> That sounds silly but does nobody find it at all odd that every fomc rate decision is entirely arbitrary whether they go 25, 50, 75 or more and yet cnbc predi
by gizmondo 4y ago
> That sounds silly but does nobody find it at all odd that every fomc rate decision is entirely arbitrary whether they go 25, 50, 75 or more and yet cnbc predicts the exact rate decision every time?
That's because the Fed communicates what their next steps are likely to be beforehand. And if circumstances change and predictions are no longer correct, the Fed leaks information before their meeting to make them correct. That's what happened with the first 75 hike in this cycle.
- dkrich 4y agoIn my recollection the fed actually ruled out a 75 bps hike back in the summer for basically no reason which many thought was a huge mistake then quickly reversed course when cpi came in much higher than expected and did hike 75. Yet another reason why they have very little credibility. Link for reference: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/unhinged-markets-followed-unforced-error-by-feds-powell-says-david-tepper-11651873067 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/unhinged-markets-followed-... Fed funds futures predict what they will do -> cnbc talking heads use fed funds futures in their predictions -> the fed does what everyone thinks they will, rinse and repeat